michsnowfreak

Such a reputable news source! Im glad the mayor of minneapolis is sounding the alarm bells after a snowless Christmas. The world must be ending. I hope he was not too alarmed last winter when minneapolis saw its third snowiest winter on record. And since we have 4 more months of snow to go in the midwest, hopefully that lady's sensible purchase of a $900 winter coat is put to use.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I definitely enjoyed the storms. The March 3rd snowstorm in particular was like something you read out of one of those old 1800s books the way they would describe a storm blowing in out of nowhere. Usually they're described in a sort of unrealistic way but that's exactly what happened on Mar 3. Plus we also the worst ice storm in years. And the wet nature of most snowfalls was a photography dream. So definitely some positives last winter, it's just that I've always been a snowcover guy so hoping we get a few stretches this winter. Regardless what happens, your analysis is appreciated and I look forward to more of it!

FANTASTIC analysis @OHweather! I'm not worried about finishing with a below average snow season, I would just love some bouts of wintry weather with some sustainability. Ironically last year, though many areas outside MSP considered it a year without a winter, we actually finished with near normal snowfall in the Detroit area (slightly below average in the southern burbs and slightly above average in the northern burbs). This was due to multiple juicy winter storms that were fun to experience but did not last on the ground long. If we flip the script and get some smaller snowfall that actually stay awhile, given it's a strong nino I won't complain.

At Detroit, this Christmas the high was 54°, which ties with 2 other years for 5th warmest Christmas. Last Christmas the high of 16° made it the 5th coldest Christmas.

I assumed it was because this tweet is not to the liking of the usual Eric Webb fan club posts in this thread.

Merry Christmas Eve everyone!

There it is . I literally chuckle every time I see a map that says "since 1970". Just a coincidence, I know, the old 53-year normals, right? There's absolutely nothing like starting a dataset with a regression line during the absolute coldest winters of record. Now do winter warming the last 100 years. I see Detroit is in the +5 shading. Let's fact check. Warming since 1873: +2.0 Warming last 100 years: +1.2 Warming since 1970: +4.9 The brutal winters of the 1970s are the best friend of anybody who wants to make climate change (a real issue certainly) look warmer than it is. If we're gonna insist on posting how much winter's warmed since 1970 instead of using a longer period of time, they need to add a chart of how much winters cooled from 1920-1970.

Omg lol

The cfs literally changes wildly 4 times a day.

Yup. Interesting fact. Detroit has never had a white christmas in a strong Nino (1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2015, 2023). This is not new york city where white christmases are rare. Historically we have a near 50% chance of a white Christmas, there has been no long-term decrease in that percentage, exactly half of the 24 christmases this century have been white... yet not a single strong nino white one. December in strong ninos sucks.

Agree! Bring on the gray

Southeast Michigan is well outside of the snow belt obviously, but we do get accumulating lake effect snow every winter (pick your suburb for whether you like west or northwest flow...for me, west is best). But I always feel one of the more underrated bonuses of Lake Michigan is the enhancement it provides to synoptic systems. Lake enhancement with clippers is usually noticeable, but sometimes little pieces of energy just cross the lake and give it a boost and voila, you get snow. But all that said, i'm sure luck plays to it as well. 2022-23: 37.2" 2021-22: 47.6" 2020-21: 47.0" 2019-20: 43.8" 2018-19: 31.9" 2017-18: 62.5" 2016-17: 41.6" 2015-16: 35.0" 2014-15: 48.5" 2013-14: 96.2" 2012-13: 47.9" 2011-12: 25.5" 2010-11: 69.4" 2009-10: 46.1" 2008-09: 64.8" 2007-08: 78.2" 2006-07: 36.3" 2005-06: 41.9" 2004-05: 80.7" 2003-04: 36.6" 2002-03: 66.9" 2001-02: 42.5" 2000-01: 47.3" 1999-00: 29.3" 1998-99: 52.1" 1997-98: 27.2" 1996-97: 35.9" 1995-96: 31.3"

If you read enough in the thread, you will quickly learn who gives an objective analysis and who is constantly trying to hammer their wishcast/opinions/personal preference.

Interesting. How is that different from a Snow Squall Warning i wonder?

I would say no. November 1997 was very cold. December was more wintry in 1997. Jan started out very warm. Feb was a torch.

The fact that you engage with a troll that everyone wants banned pretty much ruins your credibility. What you're not realizing, however, is that the data you post (as cherry picked as some of it is) only makes your troll friend look more idiotic and tells us things we already know. He does not believe in ever so slowly steadily climbing temperature averages that most do, and no one here denies. He alleges that our winters are warming like 30° in a few decades. All you have to do is look at some of his previous posts. Oh, and that's another thing, those rising averages here are due to summer, not winter. January+ february temperatures are literally flatlined the past 100 years at detroit. In the last 10 years, Detroit has seen: 40 record highs 30 record warm Lows 21 record Lows 10 record cold highs What's interesting is that most of the record Lows have been in the cold season.

All of michigan had snow on halloween, and almost none of michigan will have snow on christmas.

Winter of 2011-12 sucked, make no mistake about that. In fact, it is my least snowy winter (25.5" in 29 years of keeping track) However, there are 2 things that really make that the poster child for sucky winters, and that is a combination of the record warmth in March which literally stopped winter at the end of February, and with the fact that that winter was surrounded by a period of unusually severe winters. When you look back at 150 years of winters, there were many great ones and many duds, but they all had their own unique character. These days, it's actually become a pet peeve of mine that anytime we are in a sucky mild pattern, you hear the inevitable "2011-12, 2011-12". November 2011 was warm and record wet. November 2023 was cool and top 20 record dry. November 2011 had no winter until the very last day when a flooding rainstorm turned to wet snow in places. November 2023 had a period of wintry weather. December 2011, while very mild overall, was fairly active and did at least have several wintry systems. December 2023 is warm and mostly zzzz. And winter is just beginning. Way way too early to tell if it's going to have a good comeback or end up an overall dud, but i could probably find dozens of better matches to date than 2011-12.

This winter is nothing like 2011-12 so far.

The amount of unusually snowy February's we have has been just as impressive as the mundane december's. And sun angle has never been an issue in a wintry pattern. Unless you're talking about an inch of 40-1 ratio fluff that melts away under the late february sun on a thirty degree day.

That winter was crazy in that we did so much better in Detroit than you guys did in Toledo, but then further north towards Flint they actually had a snowy winter. Talk about gradient. Toledo did have SOME light snows, but the lnly worthwfile storm was that April 8 incher. I remember as it was opening day for the detroit tigers, I had tix and was watching weather closely for a snow out. We had a dusting up here, but the heavy snow stayed just to our south.

I agree 100%. I wish I studied for exams back in college half as much as i've studied detroit's weather data history, I would have aced every single thing. It's fascinating to see different trends in weather over the years. I always say, winters are like the snowflakes they produce: no two are the same. But there have been certain decadal trends that are sometimes seen. A lot of people have unrealistic expectations for winter to begin with, but ever since our stretch of great winters in the Midwest, computer model accessibility for free, and media hype, it has gotten even worse.

Actually, looks like Toronto's on a stretch of above average snow seasons per your sig.

It's hard to believe that winter was ten years ago. It truly was incredible. It actually defied the odds in terms of getting so much snow with such cold weather.

So true. Quite a few wintry Novembers have preceded blah Decembers the past decade.