michsnowfreak

There were some warm days the first 10 days of the month followed by a blast of Winter. The fun contrasts of November.

As was the case all year, only scraps of the heat made it to SE MI. DTW's warmest temp for this "summers last gasp" was 83F on Oct 3rd. To put that into perspective, while some places west/north set all-time October warm temps or close to it, Detroit has seen a warmer October temp (84F+) a total of 61 times, and then another 26 times matched this 83F. Time to take the heat repellant off the magnet and reattach the snow magnet

We all know his troll bit, I just love throwing out stats when applicable

Too bad this October and its 4 days of 80+ at MKE (looks unlikely to see anymore) take a back seat to outbreaks 2-3 weeks later in the season from mid-century. 1947 Oct 5- 80 Oct 6- 84 Oct 7- 82 Oct 12- 80 Oct 14- 82 Oct 15- 86 Oct 21- 84 Oct 22- 81 1953 Oct 3- 84 Oct 17- 80 Oct 18- 83 Oct 19- 81 Oct 20- 85 Oct 21- 80 Oct 22- 83 1963 Oct 6- 89 Oct 22- 82 Oct 23- 84 Oct 24- 80 Oct 26- 81 1997 Oct 3- 84 Oct 5- 87 Oct 6- 82 Oct 7- 84 Oct 8- 81

I thought the whole area stayed in low 80s. I just couldnt figure out why they raised highs yesterday lol. They would have been dead on if they stuck with the original forecast.

That was a big fail lol.

Kind of surprised that Detroit has had 10 October days on record of 88+ (hottest 92 on Oct 7, 1963). Of course all in early October. The difference between early and late month is huge and continues into november. This is why it always seems like fall is a month or less.

Our warmest October on record, 1963, which included two days 90, was followed by a cold december. The second warmest October, 1947, was followed by a cold winter. October temps mean nothing wrt winter.

NMME Ensemble Mean of 7 longrange models. Far more worried about precip here than temps. This is the Sept update so it should update soon. Euro seasonal (not pictured) is pretty much normal, just slightly milder than avg northern tier. NDJ DJF JFM

+0.5-1C is hardly a torch lol.

I know Jan & Feb were huge departures, thats why I said thats why its the 11th warmest year thru Oct 1st. Last winter was a great example of how even in the mildest winters (7th mildest winter on record last year) we can get plenty of winter storms. In fact, I cant recall a more destructive winter for trees than last year. So honestly, no idea what to expect this winter. Id bet money its colder than last winter. But storm tracks/precip trends are far more important for snow-lovers than temps are in this region. (Of course, for us "deep winter" fans of snowcover and cold in addition to snowfall, the colder the better). Waiting for the NMME model consensus update for Oct, but the last run was surprisingly tame for a stronger el nino winter (DJF departure approx +0.5C).

I think that's a pretty safe bet lol. For Detroit, the least amount of days with measurable snow in a season is 15 days in 1889-90.

Jan and Feb were the mildest in years Jan: +7.7 Feb: +6.0 Mar: +0.6 Apr: +1.3 May: -0.6 Jun: -1.3 Jul: -0.4 Aug: -2.0 Sep: +1.3

Not sure what caused it, but the west to east gradient was very obvious and very persistent all summer. This was the most pleasant summer here since 2014. Each month from May-Aug was cooler than avg and the hottest temp at Detroit, 90°, was the lowest annual max since 1915. I think maybe twice we had a heat index touch the mid 90s, and lots of comfortable fresh air days.

Seeing as though New England started their winter thread in March, I think it's safe to start ours now lol. We know its a nino, but plenty of unknowns as usual.

September finished +1.3° at DTW, the first warmer than avg month since April.

I actually prefer dry during the color show. As was the case all summer, we will miss the core of the heat. Probably max out in the low 80s Wednesday.

Finishing September with only 1.80" rain here. Temps will finish just over a degree warmer than average, making this the first warmer than average month since April.

It's turned into a joke. It will be interesting to see if it continues with its long-range cold bias in the winter. That will tell us if it's just a bias of extremes or if it has switched to a warm bias. Ive never seen it show temperatures so far over 100° and even close to 110° for us like it did countless times this summer, sometimes as close as day 5 or 6. And we end with a max of 90°

Arctic snowy owls have been spotted in michigan in recent summers and were even spotted in los angeles recently.

See, now, to a stat guy like me that's an interesting and relevant stat for those areas. But when I posted that in 2023 Detroit had its lowest annual maximum temperature in 108 years, you said I was "making it out to be more than it was". So if lowest annual maximum temperature in over 100 years isnt noteworthy, I don't see how highest September min temp is

Summer min temps have risen moreso than max. We have yet to ever see some of the torrid daytime heat we saw from the 1930s-50s in my lifetime. I wonder if the humidity was lower at the time. And yes, summer or fall temps (warm or cold) have no bearing on winter.

It was the coolest August since 2004. Could have played a role. Fortunately the coming warm spell has shortened and muted from the GFS original nonsense.

I'm not sure. Love the zoom on my phone. It's actually across the alley. I was in my office working, which looks out the backyard, and I loved the way the dark sky hit the leaves. Proof you don't always need sun for a good Fall shot. If I remember, it usually turns orange/red on top but yellow everywhere else.

It's so hard to pin a percentage on it. Definitely not near peak but pretty much everywhere you look, you see some color, not like just the isolated few trees here and there. Maybe 20%? Last year was an early peak, and the year before was a late peak. A friend of mine who has a lot of trees, said his are 1.5 weeks ahead of normal. Pics from Sept 23-26