michsnowfreak

Oh I know. I have always found it helpful to pay attention to BOTH the midwest and northeast because sometimes I can be on the "eastern fringe" of a midwest pattern or the "western fringe" of a northeast pattern. And to clarify, when I say Im seeing bias, its not a knock on any one person, its just how I see it. I see this thread (bias posts included) filled with people with lots of knowledge. Weather forums over the years (and I go back to WWBB circa 2002) have really changed. They have certainly lost a TON of traffic since the heyday, but they actually seemed to have increased in knowledgable posters.

I'm seeing a lot of warm bias in this thread. Not calling anyone out or anything. But even with the acknowledgment that no two winters are identical, thus no analog is perfect, I'm seeing some analogs that have produced good winters immediately get dismissed by some. And make no mistake, the internet is filled with plenty of cold bias too. Just my observation, and I feel you, @raindancewx and @GaWx are very balanced. You brought up how seasonal guidance will never show some insane anomalies, which is so true. But on the other hand, we know that CPC will never go cold in a seasonal forecasts (they will in a weekly or monthly if the signal is strong). Go look back at some of their forecasts for cold winters. It's hilarious.

Happy 1st day of the most colorful month of the year!

Very interesting. I wonder if it's a fluke though? I'd have to look into my data further.

October is a month that I dont mind boring weather, since its the most colorful month of the year!

I ended up with 1.42", with 0.72" of that thanks to Helene. Still dry, but nothing earth shattering.

I may be misreading or you may be posting in jest, but the recent years Oct/Nov weather has in no way been an indicator of the coming winter.

To clarify, that is number of consecutive days with a high of 65F+, not number in total.

Its a lot to read but i get the gist. It will take a long time to actually see if it comes to fruition, but this is absolutely a good thing for snow lovers in the Great Lakes. It would likely increase it all (snow, rain, and ice events).

The 1990s (and I think 1980s) were like the heyday for clippers. But we relied TOO much on them here, which is why 2000s and 2010s winters were much snowier than the 1990s here. As an outsider to the east coast, my general impression of your climate is certainly the "feast of famine" you describe has become more common in recent years.

I agree. I have just noticed that for some reason, the really mild winters here seem to have more punch for snowfall than winters with those same temps had decades ago. I always prefer colder because its automatically better for snowcover and more snow here, but warmer is not ever really a death sentence for seasonal snowfall here (depending on the pattern).

I'll hold out hope to see that someday. This more moisture thing is a good thing for northern climes imo.

I'll take both. Lol.

Honestly though, I think that is realistic for a NYC type climate. Big storms can absolutely make or break a winter. That doesnt happen in the Great Lakes. NYC can go weeks and weeks without a flake then get a 2 foot storm. A friend of mine on Long Island has seen a 30" storm and also a winter where the grass tips werent covered once. Basically impossible here. In my 41 years on this earth so far, Detroit has not had a snowstorm over 17" or a season total under 23". Certainly, a storm can really stand out in a winter, especially when accompanied or immediately followed by brutal winds or brutal cold, but the duration of cold and snow depth/snowcover seems to be one of the main metrics for how severe a winter is. We have seen mild winters generally considered "easy" that finished with near or even above avg snow.

Another good one for me. Id take that blend in a heartbeat. Ive also noticed, I think @roardog brought it up too, but this September has been strikingly similar to September 2017 here. Dry, and unseasonable chilly the first third of the month followed by a long period of unseasonable warmth the remainder of the month.

We see so many analogs thrown around. Most could probably have an argument made for or against them. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting on another 2007-08.

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

In addition to the large dose of caution (as ALL things in weather forecasting should be taken with), my understanding of the NAO has really changed over the years. For those of us north of 40N, a +NAO is just as good, if not better, than a -NAO for actual storms and such.

I agree. Only because Im one of those who goes into Christmas mode November 1st lol. The 2006 Tigers practiced on the offday (Oct 12, 2006) between game 2 & 3 of ALCS in heavy snow showers.

My favorite snowstorm is the Superbowl Storm of 2015. Seems like the Superbowl gets later and later lol.

Detroit saw near avg snowfall both winters. 1949-50 saw 42.8" & 1950-51 saw 42.2". Whats interesting though is the 1940s-50s saw lower snowfall than the longterm avg, so both of those winters, while avg in the longterm, were slightly above avg for those decades. 1949-50 saw a warm Dec/Jan and cold Feb/Mar. Jan 25, 1950 holds as the warmest Jan temp on record (67F). But the ups and downs of the winter were insane, esp in Jan. 1950-51 was a more typical winter.

Especially when they come from a source only interested in warm trolling.

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs.

Mentioned something similar yesterday, but this is exactly what I foresee for here. My "gut instincts" are not based on indices, rather on enso state and local climate history & how recent climate trends tend to affect this area. ~I suspect 1 month will end up colder than normal. ~I almost certainly expect wild swings. That has been a Nina mainstay since records began, and certainly has remained true in recent years. Just to throw out a number for DTW, I can see DJF having a max of 65° and min of -12°. ~I expect periods of excitement and frustration, with lots of busts (both good and bad). ~If the model consensus of above avg precip comes to fruition, you can bet the house that there will be some good winter storms in the lakes, and lots of events overall. Storm tracks and rain/snow lines especially will likely cause some weenie meltdowns for folks who will end up with an above avg snow season. (Fun fact...im mild mannered and rarely have meltdowns. Yet my biggest one ever was Jan 1, 2008 when I got insanely screwed. A winter that I finished with 78.2" of snow).

Throwing out an early guess for my area I'd go with a DJF mean of 0° to +2° and snowfall 100-125% of avg. Expecting lots of variability.