michsnowfreak

DTW finished -14.0 in Feb 2015, even greater than the + of Mar 2012. I know we're a different climate out here in Michigan, plus you guys have the warm ocean, but even with overall winter temperatures warming to varying degrees, if one of those PV lobes breaks off and makes a dive for the east coast one of these years, watch out. Detroit has gone decades without an Arctic blast the likes of which it saw in January 2014, February 2014, February 2015, and January 2019. The blast that made Texas lose its shit in February 2021 would have likely had insane temperatures had it hit the Great Lakes or northeast rather than straight South.

Newark was -12.5 in Feb 2015

I say this every year at this time, and this December's pattern was about as bad as it gets, but personally I think it's way way too early to entertain. We have nearly 4 more months of measurable snow potential. I don't think it's too early to think we finish below average snowfall, or that this will definitely not be a favorite winter of anyone's lol, but wayyy too early to talk futility.

We had 2.4" here with blizzard conditions. More like a plains blizzard than the publics perception of blizzard = deep snow. After the wind finally calmed down Christmas Eve we picked up another 2.4" overnight which gently blanketed the drifty landscape and made for a postcard worthy Christmas.

No buds that I've seen here. Its your typical dark gray winter landcsape but without snow and with green and brown grass. Not sure how familiar you are with trees, but some trees winter buds are big, and during winter mild spells people sometimes confuse them for budding (ie magnolia trees). Not saying your wrong, just an observation.

Turning the page to January at least there are more wintry threats on the models and ensembles. Baby steps!

Sorry I wasn't more clear. I meant any SSW, not major. My overall understanding of SSW is very minimal.

Oh I can guarantee that DocAtl will need a snowblower in Chicago at some point.

If i'm understanding right, models still show an SSW is likely, just not as strong as previously indicated?

I was using the official Detroit data, not a coop station. If anything temperatures are now taken in concrete laden areas when they use to not be. 1970s winters were exponentially harsher than Winters of any other decade of the 20th century here. Likewise, 2000s & 2010s winters were also harsher than winters of the middle third of the 20th century.

Is this your first Chicago winter?

I wouldnt worry too much about an amaetur twitter poster from New England lol. As stebo mentioned, too strong of a SSW could mean too much suppression.

Oh for sure. We dont need anomalous cold in winter to get snow. I just meant that is interesting food for thought that the stronger the SSW the more suppression. Makes sense though.

LMAO. There it is again. "Since 1970". Imagine how boring these maps would be if they didnt start in the brutally cold winters of the 1970s? Detroit winters warmed 5.0F from 1970-2023...but Detroit winters COOLED 4.0F from 1930-1980. I have seen countless graphs starting in 1970, but NEVER ONCE have I seen 1930-80. From 1880-2020, Detroit winters warmed 1.6F From 1921-2020, Detroit winters warmed 0.6F. The rolling 100-year avg, 1924-2023, warmed 1.2F and the entire POR, 1874-2023, warmed 2.0F. You can check ANY of that data on X-macis, a site which uses all of the actual weather data in the period of record (not only since 1970). "Since 1970" has been used for years, and it will continue to be the go-to because it will always show the most extreme warming.

The look up colder than average in the south and warmer than average in the north has been showing up fairly steadily, so I certainly believe its a likely scenario. But keep in mind average temperatures are way colder in the north, so actual temps will still be colder in the north, just not as much of a gradient.

A dehumidifier will be a HUGE help with your mold issues. I run a dehumidifier in my basement year round. Although it only runs when it needs to, so it rarely runs in the winter. Winter air is often dry in Michigan, so running a humidifier in your bedroom when you sleep is recommended as well. Have to find the perfect balance lol.

Yes rain definitely plays a huge part in mold. Spring is always worst for me. I hope you start feeling better soon. Snow melt (if it has been deep and long lasting) can cause snow mold on grass. But yes snow itself covers up everything including mold issues. So bring on the frozen landscape!

Make no mistake, it's a gross December here. We had snow on the ground Halloween night and the last 4 days of November but have not had any white ground in December, just occasional flakes. Nothing is budding or growing and we have not had near the rain that you've had so I will definitely give you that it is different and I'm not experiencing what you are first-hand. But if that is true about the mold, and I do see the excessive rain totals this month on the East Coast, I understand completely as I have bad allergies to mold. They're especially noticeable in the Spring or Fall. Mold of any kind is nothing to mess around with and can literally be deadly (esp when people have black mold in their home amd dont know it). I grew up with such a bad allergy to mold that my mom knew if I said i had a "mold headache" it was different than a regular headache. Sorry you're going through it.

Simplifying everything down, it seems both Judah Cohen and Larry Cosgrove are on the train of cooler start to January, milder towards mid month, then the coldest part of winter the 2nd half of January into February.

Hopefully he's right lol. I wonder if this could be similar weather wise to 2006-07?

After reading his entire summary, the funny thing is the jist I got was very similar to what the much more maligned Larry Cosgrove has been saying for a while. Much cooler start to Jan (but not cold), then getting milder towards mid month (not Dec mild), then winter may really roar in later in Jan into Feb.

I dont disagree. I am wondering how many snow weenies, if they HAD to choose a snowless pattern, would take mild & dry vs cold & dry. Id absolutely take cold & dry, while I think many others would not. Cold & dry is still winter, especially here in the Great Lakes where there are lakes/water everywhere to freeze up and you can always get some LES. But I think MANY (especially in the general public moreso than a true weather enthusiast) see snow as the be all end all, and at the end of a winter, the lack of OR surplus of a snow will be a huge weight on how they view the winter, regardless of temps. I literally have binders of every stat imagineable for Detroit, and can tell you that HERE, for whatever reason, December is becoming the less wintry month, esp with temps. We are not seeing any noticeable change in first/last freeze, first/last snow (in fact, Oct/May snow frequency is increasing), November is getting frequent cold snaps, Feb is getting tons of snow, Jan & Feb temps are nearly flat for the past 100 years...so I cannot figure out what causes the change in December. We have lucked into enough White Christmases, but avg temps are clearly on the up like a sore thumb compared to Nov, Jan, or Feb. So you add that unknown reason to the infamously hostile December strong nino climo and bam, welcome to Dec 2023. It would be cool to get a big climo guru from every region together and look at whats changing for the good and bad in each location.

Interesting thoughts. You think a weaker SSW would favor colder but LESS suppression than a strong one?

More open water could mean more lake effect and lake enhanced snow.

I can confirm. The two months have finished very close a few times, but at Detroit officially, December has never finished warmer than November (it should not this year either).