michsnowfreak

My 1.6 settled to about half that with a high of 28 yesterday lol. But hey it's better than no snow!

December starts in 2 days. Figured it's time for a new thread. White Christmas? Only 4 weeks to find out.

I have yet to see who is forecasting or even implying a cold December in the east. In fact, pretty much every forecast I have seen, regardless of the overall outcome, has December as the mildest month of winter. I guess if someone doesn't forecast a Dec 2015 redux that means they are saying it will be cold? Or is it the fact that people note the fact that it can and will still snow in a mild December in places? As I type it's 18° here and I have a little snow on the ground. A warm December in Detroit is still colder than a cold December in Albuquerque. It's all relative. Anomalies are just that. The country doesn't literally get turned upside when it's "cold" in the SW and "warm" in the NE.

The squall was very intense, as I posted in the November thread. Completely different here and there lol. Canton- 1.6" sun, 0.5" mon Wyandotte- 0.2" sun, 1.7" mon

It was a true whiteout for a brief time. Made up for missing out Sunday. Beautiful winter morning this morning.

I just ran the numbers for DTW, not the CONUS. But found no correlation locally whatsoever. 2002 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2004 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg + 2006 S(-) O(-) N (+)...avg - 2009 S(+) O(-) N(+)...avg + 2014 S(-) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2015 S(+) O(+) N(+)...avg + 2018 S(+) O(-) N(-)...avg - 2023 S(+) O(+) N(-)...avg + + falls 2004-05 D(-) J(-) F(-) 2009-10 D(-) J(-) F(-) 2015-16 D(+) J(+) F(+) 2023-24? - falls 2002-03 D(-) J(-) F(-)...avg - 2006-07 D(+) J(+) F (-)...avg + 2014-15 D(+) J(-) F(-)...avg - 2018-19 D(+) J(-) F(+)...avg + Since 2002, 4 falls featured a colder than average temperature departure, and the following winters were split, 2 mild, 2 cold. The 3 Falls prior to this year that featured a warmer than average departure produced 2 cold winters and 1 mild winter. Also, the months were all over the place in terms of which ones were warmer and which were colder than average. FWIW I found that the closest fall temperature average to 2023 was 2009. Another interesting thing I noticed is that 2023 was the only year of all 8 nino Falls since 2002 where no month had a notable departure. S (+0.8) O (+1.5) N (-0.4 est)

And vice versa. Look at November 1997.

I don't make forecasts, I just read others lol. I'm certainly a cold snow guy if you're talking about what I like, but I don't forecast. I have learned over the years though that many (not all) forecasts contain forecaster bias (be it warm or cold). This is not even a knock on the forecaster as much as it is acknowledging how full of unknowns the weather is. Actually I've given some guys in a local weather chat hell in past years because due to a few cold, snowy Novembers being followed by warm Decembers, they started acting like November cold/snow is a bad omen. Ironically woke up to a beautiful wintry morning here with fresh snow and temps in the teens. This November will finish with both temps and snowfall near avg here.

I have to agree regarding november especially. Each winter has its own mind and no two are exactly alike, but I under no scenario can I see November's snow and cold, or lack thereof, as having any correlation to the coming winter.

It was legit. It was almost like an unintentional storm chase for me. My brother wanted to go downtown Detroit to dinner and check out the Christmas stuff. The squall hit as we were out, and it was such a perfect atmosphere. I figured the band would weaken some as it headed south but still snow, but instead it strengthened. As we left Detroit it had tapered to flurries but we ran right into it and drove through it the whole way home, Visibility near zero by my house briefly. It was enough to disorient you if you didn't know where you were because the traffic lights were obscured until the last minute.

Snow squall warning verified here. Had a great time. Went to Detroit to Campus Martius to check out the Christmas stuff and did it in heavy snow, then followed the squall home. After all day snow flurries and light snow dropped 0.1" following yesterday's 0.2" slush, the squall dropped a quick fluffy 1.6" of snow.

Lightly snowing and blowing today creating a wintry feel. Looking forward to see what kind of lake response/banding we get this evening as a shortwave moves thru.

Not to speak for bo, but i would think it would have to be a very warm start to spring for him to have bare ground in mid April. Also, this seems late for his winter snowcover to be laid down.

Started as a few hours of rain here then to wet snow. 0.2" of slushy snow here. 0.5" DTW. Away from the water most of SE MI got 1-2", but this is not uncommon for a November snowfall.

I expect pics!

Haven't had snow since Halloween, though the ground has snow on it November 1st. It's gonna be a sloppy white rain in dtw but I'm interested in les band potential tomorrow

13-14 was the most severe winter on record at Detroit. 14-15 smashed records in the east while the midwest had the coldest Feb since 1875 or of all recorded history (depending on location). In 2019 a record smashing arctic blast hit the midwest, and it was record smashing during already what is the coldest part of the year. And in Feb 2021 Texas lost their shit when temp records broke by 20+ degrees in the Arctic blast. That is all less than a decade ago. There is absolutely no reason to believe that when the ingredients are right the east won't have a brutally cold winter that's on par with other cold winters of the past few decades. And no, I'm NOT saying I think that happens this winter. And no, I'm not denying anything (ugh I hate that I even added that part in there, like it's mandatory on here when you talk of cold weather).

Great post. Happy Thanksgiving all!

A very interesting tweet considering this thread is page after page from mostly the same group of mets and their clear biases. I don't even know who most of them are but by this thread alone as soon as I see the name I can guess where it's going. Also as an aside...speaking of "colder snowier" winters in the east, I imagine that the line is drawn somewhere near Boston where temps, troughs and ridges arent the end all. Obviously winter lovers want snow AND cold. But even in warm winters places north of 40N can get plenty of snow. Saw nearly 40" in Detroit last winter in a MUCH warmer than normal winter. I feel like a lot of bad luck hit the east coast in addition to warmth and that's fresh in people minds. Part of the fun is that each winter is full of unknowns and this one has even more than usual.

It's almost a given that this Winter will be better for them than last year for them. I think this winter will be colder here than last winter. Snow is the wild card

You can get something similar with a paid subscription to WeatherBell (among other neat stuff), but ive not found anything free.

It's actually tiresome that this has to literally be stated as a preface anytime someone challenges one of the more off the wall predictions, statements, or even interpretations regarding climate.

To be fair they actually do give reasoning many times though. It's a lot more than some here do. Like stebo said, absolutely no way to know what December in its entirety will bring. But I'd bet on something changeable.

Interesting. I wonder if they have stats on how cloudy October was? I'd say it had to be up there. Most stations don't do % of sun anymore.

If I had to pick the absolute worst winter to experience here all things considered, it would likely be 1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19. Not sure if any were ninos. I would say 1982-83 was worse than 1997-98, and both were worse than 2015-16.