michsnowfreak

Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.

Its coming about as expected for a strong Nino. Some snow/cold shots in Oct/Nov, a terrible Dec...the rest of the season tbd. The mild weather gives you plenty of time to ensure the green paint job on your grass is on point for when the cold hits Jan-Mar.

For sure. Never adding any actual substance or weather discussion, just trolling away & spouting nonsense since he lives in a 4 seasons humid continental climate rather than the tropical one he never will.

Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now.

Flurries and snow showers all day but they melted as fell here. Some heavier squalls dropped anywhere from a coating to a half inch though nearby. Have a bit of snow dust in the cracks now at night, but not enough to call it a tenth. Some northern suburbs had 1 to 2 inches, with 2.2" in White Lake. Flint had 1.5", DTW 0.1"

That winter saw a big early season snowstorm in Nov, a torch in Dec, and more up and down in Jan though several cold snaps and snows. I don't recall what models had. It's enough to keep them straight now, nevermind what they showed 8 years ago lol.

This year we had snow on Halloween, snow Thanksgiving weekend....and assumably no snow Christmas week.

Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms. Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5

To add to this, around this time in 2005 and 2016 we were enjoying a postcard perfect Christmas season full of snow and cold. What happened after New Year's each of those years sucked. Weather patterns do change

Exactly. it's so all relative. and I have to agree, the minor changes will obviously affect the more southern climates (although they still will be able to get occasional snow storms), but it actually may be a help more so than a hindrance to places here in the north. A little bit more moisture can go a long way. In addition to numerous mild winters of yesteryear I discussed above, there were also a handful of winters scattered about in the earlier days of the climate record that had cold temperatures but were very dry and anemic for snowfall. You rarely see that anymore. In fact, there are some stories from winters of the late 1700s and early 1800s, before any official climate records existed, that would tell stories of brutally cold winters in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but with very light snowfall. Last winter I don't need to tell you was grossly warmer than average. but we still got either side of 40 inches of snow in the Detroit area, in a winter that is far warmer than any progged increase to our avg temp. Because of storm tracks. Another thing slightly warmer winters do is they don't shut the Great Lakes in ice so quickly (how we got so many snowstorms in the ice locked 2013-14 winter is beyond me!) When there is open water, not only do you get Lake effect snow, but every system that crosses the lakes gets a boost from it. Especially here away from the real snow belt, the words "lake enhanced" are music to my ears when any little piece of synoptic energy crosses the lake. Much like the warmer ocean waters can really juice a noreaster for you guys. Bottom line. climate change exists. But so do unfavorable weather patterns. Don't do mother nature the disservice of always crediting one over the other.

Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm (after a mild winter). Some things never change!

You are very welcome! I've always been fascinated by climate data, the good and the bad. Obviously I'm a winter weather lover, but I have just as much fascination with the terrible winters as the good ones. Because it makes you wonder, geez what happened? Another great thing is I have looked up all of these things in the newspaper. I subscribe to the digital archives for the Detroit Free Press, so I can look at any newspaper since 1837. it's fascinating to see how weather events were covered back in the day. Just like now, anomalous events were certainly covered. The big difference however, is phrases like "where's winter?", "open winter", "winter heatwave" were seen plenty, but you never saw "climate change" as the blame for individual events. Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm hit following a mild winter.

Excellent post and I agree with everything you said. I mean, I know every stat imaginable for Detroit, but with xmacis it's SO easy to run stats for anywhere. I noted to one of my nyc friends that they had 6 consecutive winters in the 1950s with snowfall in the teens inches. An interesting trend I noticed here in those 3 decades (1930s-50s) is whenever you got a decent winter you were absolutely punished the following year with a nightmare. The 1931-32 winter was so warm and rainy that grass was growing, dandelions blooming, and trees budding in January. Only in March did winter pop in. (1881-82 and 1889-90 were other winters with well documented winter flowers blooming in MI due to warmth). 1936-37 is Detroits least snowy winter on record (12.9") and I believe it is Bostons as well. 1940s winters here were mundane as hell (tho not as warm as the 1930s or 50s). In the mild winter of 1948-49, almost all of the winters putrid 13.8" total snow fell in a 10-day period in late Jan/early Feb. 1952-53 holds the distinction of being the only winter on record Detroit didn't see a 3"+ snowdepth. And 1957-58 (a favorite of yours) was a winter of pennies here, mercilessly clawing it's way to an 18" season total, but holds the distinction of being the winter with the smallest "biggest storm" of the season at only 2.1". I mean I could go on, but you get the point. If ANY of the above happened today, i don't think I need to tell you were 100% of the blame would be placed. Hint- it wouldn't be the weather pattern.

Thanks. Although I don't consider it optimism or a stretch to say it's too early to discuss snowfall futility when we have over 85% of our seasonal snowfall statistically to come. Decembers stink this year was seen a mile away and the hope all along was hoping for a few timely threaded needles. But strong nino climo in Dec plus a hostile pacific made a shit December a given. The remainder of the cold season after new years, in my opinion, will be much more dependent on storm tracks and what not rather than worrying about no cold air.

I agree with there being 2 camps, but I would've worded them a little differently than you did. Guess you can put me in the softer acceptance camp. The "everyone is fucked" camp are those who have knee jerk reactions to everything and blame every unusual warm pattern solely on climate change. We literally just had how many harsh winters the previous 2 decades? Now you get a smattering of mild winters and the end is nigh. I know when discussing climate change it's taboo to discuss anything before 1970, but we had plenty of mild snowless winters in the 1930s-1950s. I will say that here in southeast Michigan (and I know you hail originally from Michigan tip), our winters have not warmed as much as on the East Coast. But when it comes to climate change, doesn't any weather enthusiast worry about their own backyard above anything else? I live in an area that is the definition of 4 distinct seasons, and how have my winter's changed? In the last 100 years, I've gained 1° in temperature (all from Dec) and about 5" of snow annually. Do I think some areas of the world are fucked because of climate change? Absolutely. But my area certainly is not one of them, and neither is New England. The biggest irony of all about climate change is that it's something people are supposed to want to change and prevent, but the biggest climate change enthusiasts on this board are the ones who have such an extreme excitement over a warming globe that any slowing or prevention of that would be nothing short of depressing for them.

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

Most winters, even the mildest ones, Chicago will easily see one or several stretches over 3+ days below freezing. Likewise, the chances of an entire month straight below freezing, even in the coldest winters, is extremely rare.

I browse this thread and rarely post in it, but I have to say kudos to you and you 100% do come across as that type of poster who is very objective. A few of the other posters in this thread are so biased towards what they want to see that I can be scrolling and just see their user name peak out and before even reading the post i know where it's going. Objective analysis is all I want, and you, @40/70 Benchmark @stadiumwave and a few others provide just that.

1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away.

I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different.

Someone who is into every stat imaginable for the area, I can assure you that everything and anything is possible. A warm december does not mean it won't snow. Likewise, I'm confident in a much colder January and February, but that does not guarantee a lot of snow (of course even if we do get the dreaded CAD we have the lakes on our side). I don't think this December will come close to Dec 1881 or 2015 warmth, but it will certainly blend right in with the other mild decembers of strong ninos. Really nothing you can do but just ride the roller coaster that is the weather.

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week. Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

Unfortunately it's par for the course in a strong nino December.

And clippers

Today actually feels like winter. Certainly haven't noticed any grass growing lol. But unfortunately strong nino decembers are typically suck city. Just enjoy the holidays and hope the return of cold in January isn't too dry.