IUsedToHateCold
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Everything posted by IUsedToHateCold
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A tradition that must continue. For those weenies that hugged the wrong model too long and ran straight off the ledge. For those patterns that bring 70 degree weather in prime climo. For weeks and weeks (and weeks) on end of looking at ensemble output and orchestrating how we end up with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO only to be disappointed in the long run. An homage to our long departed Reaper, may his cursed soul rest in peace.
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A model war: this forum in its highest form. You know where my money is at. GFS scored some nasty coups last year… and if the Euro folds I’ll be ready to crown the GFS king. It’s probably meaningless (as the real action is at h5) but I had to lol at the euros temp map that someone posted earlier. Just a weird thumb of arctic air sticking into the middle of the country, Regardless, we know it’s going to be cold. Be ready to bundle up weenies.
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We flip or dry slot down here in the swamps for all the big ones. No biggie, we still get 1-2 feet from a storm like this.
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GFS was king last year IIRC. That said, weenie rule #1 - hug the model that gives you the most snow. If the euro follows suit I’d see that as a good argument that there’s going to be a major east coast storm somewhere next week. Too soon to know the exact details-just that someone’s going to get it
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Let's be fair, I wouldn't trust the CMC or the Icon with setting a mousetrap at this range.
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This is just a weird progression. 13 inches in Raleigh and 4 inches for Baltimore, 0.8 inches for New Haven, CT? I'm sure it's possible, but....
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Looks pretty similar to 18z through 114, mostly wobbles.
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This. If temps are in the low 20s sun angle hardly matters. You might lose a very small amount to it.
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33 degrees and cold rain down here in the swamps
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GFS is encouraging. I saw blue over Maryland and I’m taking that as a win.
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Now that is some cold. Just need the snow to go with it.
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It’s been modeled like this for days. We shouldn’t have expected anything. I was hoping to see a flake but even that looks to be out of the question. The warm air aloft is real. Oh well.
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40 degrees. I get maybe a flake and some sleet pellets before my cold rain. I’ll take it.
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My picks in the snowfall contest are starting to look real good
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And just like that we’re all rooting for suppression. Which, given the past few years, is not a bad place to be at this point.
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Looking at that spread this is far from a done deal. We need to roll well.
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GFS was king last winter. Would really like to see it in our camp. Not going to be bummed if we miss this first one, as there look to be several after it. We have a good chance of cashing.
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I suppose there was a time when I would take the euro verbatim over the other models, but sadly those days are gone. It’s kind of a weird depiction that doesn’t make a lot of sense IMO, but here’s to hoping that this is the beginning of a trend reversal!
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Models have been pretty consistent with this for some time, even though there have been wobbles (as to be expected). I'd be very surprised if we're in a shutout pattern come Dec 18th.
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00z Icon and CMC still hint at snow chances for 12/9-12/10, GFS says nope.
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This didn't happen. If we could go on the first half of the month, then yeah.
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Toss the 384 hour OP GFS. Ensembles still showing the big -NAO coming, just a matter of when. If there is one thing that I am afraid of it’s suppression, but we have a good shot at a big one. Keep fingers crossed and roll the dice well.
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Every once in a while the D20 must come up with a critical hit. We are due, and I'm just about to go off the ledge on the GEFS/EPS/CFS and say... it's probably going to happen.
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Heavy rain inbound for you. Enjoy (or not)
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I’d rather have snow than a car with an ugly bow on it
