IUsedToHateCold

First flakes recorded at exactly midnight. Severna Park MD

17.8/-0.4. Close. Looks to start in the next 30-60 minutes.

18/-4, Expecting first flakes in three hours.

snow in Blacksburg means it's about 6 hours out from my neck of the woods

A strangely sunny day for a storm coming. 18.5/-7.1

A Euro cave to the GFS is a spectacular way to end the day. Also, down to 17.2/-8.9 here... as we all know this cold is real. Tomorrow is it - let's reel it in.

If a model is on an island it's probably wrong unless it's in it's wheelhouse doing something it's proven to excel at. NAM is good at thermals, so it is a wheelhouse, but we've seen the NAM be wrong outside of 24 hours. This is within 24 hours, so we are to assume it could be on to something, but I wouldn't necessarily conclude that verbatim.

I'd pay attention to both, but if it backs off at 6z that's probably a good sign.

The model guidance is pretty close at this point, with some variations. NAM is a major outlier with a much more amped/warm system. Needs to be watched tomorrow to see if it's sniffing something real. I think 10-12 for DC (snow and sleet) is still what I think will happen. Tomorrow we'll be watching the energy cross the country, so it will be fun and interesting to see what happens.

Some THUNDER possible? Yikes. Can't imagine thunderstorm-type freezing rain. That will be a total disaster.

Glad to see the southward trend continues. Nina FTW. NAM thermals from this morning are probably overbaked, we will get a better grasp tomorrow on p-type. I feel confident that even if we sleet a lot, the sleet is going to really pile up, but I'm more confident we're going to see a lot of snow. I'm sticking with 10-12 for DC.

We know where the deathbands will be. It's all down to snow climo now. A southward/suppressive trend wouldn't surprise me towards game time (it is Nina climo, right?) but we definitely don't want too much of it. My call: DC: 10-12 Baltimore/My Yard: 11-13 Columbia: 13-15 Frederick: 16-18 Hagerstown: 20

The fact that the AI GFS doesn't support the physics model is pretty telling IMO. This would be an absolutely devastating coup if the Euro were to cave. Like I said earlier, I think the GFS caves, maybe even at 00z... but I don't think this is over yet. We will get a last minute trend in one direction or another (hopefully positive).

GFS is rolling. Will it hold or cave? My guess is that it stubbornly holds. The island life is too good.

For winter storms you get hit with a double whammy if you live east of 95 in Maryland - you're closer to the bay, which means slightly warmer temperatures in the winter, and being further east means you're closer to coastal lows. Even 20 miles out from the bay you still get a little bit of the effect. Drive from Columbia to Severna Park and watch your dashboard thermometer and you'll see. If there is one benefit to living in the east - you never worry about QPF. You open your windows and look outside and you see its a swamp out there. And you're reminded that you're the QPF winner.

And so, as expected, the GFS is out enjoying a Pina Colada on its island. Uccinelli was right. Only thing we can really hope for is a turnaround as things get closer - a faster system that lets the confluence stick around or confluence that sticks around longer.

There's going to be sleet. Especially here in AA county. The question is: how much sleet? GFS says not a lot, every other model has substantially more. GFS is probably going to cave, but its not certain. We're still three days out. Better confluence up top will lead to a more GFS-like solution

So the GFS holds. Good. Only problem is that it's kind of on an island. Let's hope it's right for once.

What is the E/E rule? (sorry, I haven't heard this one in my 20 years on the forum)

That's some weird output. No way DCA gets more snow than NW AA county. It's the NAM at range for you...

It's the NAM outside of useful range. Today basically comes down to the Euro vs. GFS. GFS gives us more snow and Euro gives us more ice. I wouldn't bet on the GFS.

I would think the AI models get all the same data the physics models do, except instead of feeding a physics engine they feed an LLM. If that map is right then it seems that the AI has definitely gone with the WV primary idea, which is not great news.

Euro has the extra data tonight, so it's to be trusted even more than usual. Although, it's really going to come down to how the confluence is handled I think. I think there is still a possibility we win real big with this one if we can thread the needle. Practical expectation is to expect sleet.

It's got to be the confluence. If the high is further north and further east that lets the primary come up further north and further west. So, like someone said, I don't know that the Baja low sampling is going to give us much - we really need that energy in Canada to be sampled to figure out what's going to happen.

GFS is rolling, I don't see any changes through hour 18