IUsedToHateCold

It was really that it went more north than west. The primary went into the OHV and transferred to a low off of Ocean City. We would've rather the primary stayed down south and transferred off the coast of NC. But I agree that it's too early to throw in the towel.

I'm just willingly and for no good reason going to assume that this typo in their AFD means this thing is going to be something to see. But as for the run-to-run noise - they call it thread the needle for a reason. This is a high stakes game right here. One 50-75 mile line is going to win huge if anyone wins at all. I ran the die roll last night - 18 - I think we got a good shot at this. Keep up the spirits and don't let a single run get you down. You're going to see fluctuations. All that matters is where the storm actually goes in the end. But I do think if that line in the GFS that gave 48" of snow to Salisbury comes north a hundred miles the board will probably crash lol.

That's almost 4 feet of snow on the eastern shore with 50-65 mile per hour winds. Absolutely catastrophic.

Big difference at 96 hours with the placement of the surface low - much further west on 12z.

I'm not out. Things could trend back the right way. I'd say if by end of day tomorrow it's considerably offshore it's time to turn out the lights. But if all we need is a 100-200 mile shift then we can get that as we approach the event.

They call these clown maps for a reason. Really, multiple reasons. A: They have an unbelievable look. B: They're funny as hell. I mean, I don't understand fluid dynamics, so I shouldn't talk. But I know climo, and there's no way that this map is ever going to verify even if the storm took the track that was advertised. Bring on the King.

In 2037 your phone will be walking around your house doing your laundry. Banter, but it had to be said. As for this storm, it's time for the good old die roll. It was a good one. 18 means I'm liking our chances. Needed a high roll for this thread-the-needle type situation. Would've loved to see a critical hit here, but 18 is still really good.

This is in their example - so they use GFS data. from earth2studio.data import GFS

Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong.

Oh yeah, NAM definitely whiffed the QPF. Maybe I don't remember correctly, but didn't GFS have a lot higher totals? And yeah, Chicago didn't get more snow than most of us, but still actually got snow.

So what did we learn from this? NAM thermals are still king. GFS is a JV model that should just be tossed if it's on an island. Sleet isn't so bad if 4 inches of it falls. Nina still screws up the northern stream Uccenelli knows what he's talking about

Another 0.5" of sleet. Still all sleet coming down heavily. 5.5" of snow and 4.0" inch of sleet (which probably contains some snow). 9.5" total Noticed that the sleet I just shoveled was higher water content, so I'm pretty sure part of my previous sleet measurement was also snow. No ZR yet.

24.1/21.8 - Still heavy sleet. About to complete last round of shoveling. I am starting to wonder about this coastal.

This is easily 2+ inches of QPF in most locations in our area

Very heavy sleet. 5.5" snow + 3.5" sleet = 9 inches total, 7.5" depth. 21.7/19

5.5" of snow and 2.5" of whatever this sleet/graupel/snow mixture is = 8". It's coming down heavy and it's not pleasant to be in. I remember back in the day sometimes the Weather Channel would use "Unknown Precip" to designate a mix. Applies.

I don't know what to call this precipitation. It's definitely sleet, but its so powdery it's weird. Heavy to shovel like sand but blows around. I imagine this storm is going to be studied for a long time. And like @dailylurker I definitely see flakes mixing in when the wind blows.

Noting the same here. I've had my eyes out the window constantly for the past half hour and during heavier bursts it switches to mostly snow briefly before going back to sleet. There is a fair amount of snow when you put it all together, going to be interesting to measure later

6" compacted, 6.5" non-compacted. Heavy sleet with some snow mixed in (90 sleet to 10 snow)

Mostly sleet but some flakes still mixed in. Hope to get back to some snow when the heavier bands to the SW move through. But check out this insane temperature gradient in mississippi. That's like a 30 degree difference in 15 miles

Snow/sleet mix, 16/12.5. Getting snow with the heavier rates, hopefully that keeps up

5.2" as of 10 minutes ago, SN+ beautiful. Accumulating faster than I can shovel it. It does look like it's going to switch soon

4.7" SN 14.7/11.3. Beautiful morning out there.

That's great news. So I don't flip until 1 PM tomorrow? (I'm about 240 miles from the mix line), or do you think it will pick up as the primary drives north?

16.2/5.4. SN- (pixie dust flakes). Road has already caved. Perfection.