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IUsedToHateCold

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Everything posted by IUsedToHateCold

  1. IUsedToHateCold
    I like my chances for a first freeze for IAD, BWI, and RIC
  2. IUsedToHateCold
    Current GFS also puts RIC in the possibility category for the next week (it has an even lower temperature than BWI for Wed morning)
  3. IUsedToHateCold
    Local weatherbug has 34. Decent frost on the roof and the car.
  4. IUsedToHateCold
    Today very well may be the warmest day at DCA this month.
  5. IUsedToHateCold
    I had to go out for a walk tonight just to take in the clear sky.
  6. IUsedToHateCold
    Great write-up, I agree with just about everything (perhaps a warmer anomaly for November and January). I do think there will be 2-3 weeks in late Dec-early Jan that could be productive for us in the snowfall department. It's a roll of the dice.
  7. IUsedToHateCold
    Why would we believe it wouldn't? Add that the current CONUS temperature anomalies for this month look nothing like that map of October '00. We're seeing above average anomalies in the west/mid-west this year. I actually cannot remember a month where we had wall-to-wall below average temperature departures for the entire CONUS in the past 10 years.
  8. IUsedToHateCold
    Could the GFS have been right? Heavy rain doesn’t look to let up soon.
  9. IUsedToHateCold
    Yeah nobody is talking about the rain for NC and SC, with the modeled track it’s bound to be a flooding hazard
  10. IUsedToHateCold
    I'm not sure about snowfall, but this is what I'm currently thinking for temperature departures: November: torch (maybe warmest ever?) December: -1 to -2 January: 0 to +1 February: +4 March: -2 The thinking is an eastern trough in the first half of meteorological winter with a ridge in the second half, with the trough returning in March.
  11. IUsedToHateCold
    BWI- 10/25 IAD - 10/24 DCA -12/2 RIC - 10/25 Peak Oct temp at DCA- 84 degrees
  12. IUsedToHateCold
    This is the weirdest modeled track for a tropical system I’ve ever seen
  13. IUsedToHateCold
    Hopefully this morning’s cool temperatures will help kick things off around here so our peak isn’t in mid November and I’m not cleaning up leaves at Christmas like last year.
  14. IUsedToHateCold
    September is our driest month climatologically. It'll get wetter in October.
  15. IUsedToHateCold
    Oscillations aside, the tonga eruption is going to be the x-factor in this year’s prediction. Given this, I would predict the weather will likely be more abnormal than usual in either a good or bad way for our subforum. It’s less likely to trend closer to the average, IMO.
  16. IUsedToHateCold
    Notice windows fogged up then stepped outside, feels like a sauna out there. Local weatherbug shows dew point of 75
  17. IUsedToHateCold
    Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty.
  18. IUsedToHateCold
    Easily could see an October with at least one 90 degree day early in the month followed by wintery precip for some places late in the month. Would be the kiss of death for winter though, so I wouldn’t root for that.
  19. IUsedToHateCold
    All yours!
  20. IUsedToHateCold
    The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. Don’t stick a fork in it.
  21. IUsedToHateCold
    Another 3 inches per radar. I’ve now got a leak in my roof. Can I send this rain somewhere else!?
  22. IUsedToHateCold
    The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match. 50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season.
  23. IUsedToHateCold
    72 degrees and humid out. Light to moderate rain at times.
  24. IUsedToHateCold
    The eyes of doom are set on me
  25. IUsedToHateCold
    The trend I see in Nina years for our area is small to moderate events. They're mostly suppressed and clip our area from the S/E, favoring areas east of the fall line but not packing a huge amount of punch in terms of totals. We also see plenty of cutters and systems impacting PA. We seem to be lacking big epic storms like 2016 in these years, but we can nickle-and-dime ourselves to around climo (slightly below or above)
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