Terpeast

All we can glean from the above is that we'll be in mjo 7 by the end of the month. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Yes, I've been seeing efforts to create hybrid models where AI helps with data assimilation for initial conditions, and then the NWP physical models run them out forward. None of that is is public yet, but so far it seems promising and I'm sure we will see a lot of new stuff coming down the pike in 2025.

Honestly I’m skeptical of this panning out as depicted, but we will see.

Yeah, for 12/23-30 MC convection slowed down and increased in strength so naturally it would have corrected warmer for NA. I think that once MC convection dies down (and it will) cold will come back sometime in the first week of January. Just not sure how durable that will be, though. IOW, how long can we hold off MC reloading in mjo 4, for example. If at least 2 weeks, we’ll have some chances during prime climo.

Did EPS show the same thing? It’s been doing better than GEFS with verification. Either way both models show AR building back and just about to reconnect the cold source. Timing is TBD, but they’ve been consistent.

Other than the vodka cold in 94, I remember getting about 2” of fluffy snow on top of 3 inches of thick ice. My dad tried to drive his jeep up our driveway, he got only halfway up the hill and he slid all the way back down.

Yeah I couldn’t book any major trips this year because I was going through some stuff earlier and now I just started my new job. But keeping an eye on canaan when it gets cold again, and I have the points saved up for another trip out west next year.

Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5

FWIW raindance thinks Jan will be warm and Feb cold for us. Normally I'd disregard, but he's been killing it for the last 8 years apparently.

Yeah those warm ssts in the MC seems to have stalled the MJO or held it back, but I think we eventually get to 7. Not sure if we get into 8 at amplitude though

It will be interesting to see if the wwb verifies along with weakening trades around the first of Jan.

Judging from the 500mb vort, the gfs and icon aren’t that far off from each other. Icon is more negatively tilted and I think that’s what we need here.

The Euro ensembles currently are a leader in 2-6 weeks lead times based on the verification scores I’m seeing. They handled the early season cold pattern the best as well as the November torch. So I’d give EPS a slight advantage over other models as of now. I wouldn’t sleep on the Graphcast though. Its been doing pretty well.

Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to punt January. Ensembles/weeklies show the PNA ridge building back

They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh

Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV

It's looking like after the late month warm up, we're looking at a flip to a colder pattern in January once the EPO goes back negative and PNA ridging returns. But I'm still unsure as to the orientation of the ridge out west that may influence the cold trough east. If we get a mixed bag of competing influences, we may either see that trough dump out into the Atlantic and/or pressed NWard by a SE ridge. I'm actually hoping for the latter because it would bring that storm track closer to us instead of shortwaves sliding way out to sea like the one on 12/21-22.

0.66”

11/21: T (brief graupel) 11/22: T (non accum snow showers that lasted a few hours) 12/1: T (snow shower that briefly dusted) 12/15: 0.1” slush with rain/slow/sleet mix in an afternoon

Whoa, heaviest now! Ripping well that was brief. But it temporarily whitened my deck for a minute or so

Yeah 200 ft makes a huge difference in a system like this. I wonder if Tysons Corner has had any accumulation

Back to snow now. I think this is the last round

Just switched over to rain/sleet. 33/32 that was fun while it lasted

Congrats. I’m in Ashburn and I have a slushy deck

Mulch just caved