Terpeast

The 3rd is 14 days away, discrete threats aren’t going to pop up on in agreement across models with that much lead time.

23.9

Agreed. It’s also a good sign that things are moving forward in time and the progged cold period is at least holding in length or even expanding. Still can get rug pulled a la Feb 2024, and there are no individual threats that are trackable at the moment, so it’s prudent to be cautious.

MJO rmm forecasts seem to be trending away from an immediate reload in 4, extending time outside of the warm phases to about 3 weeks instead of 2. I’ll check the hollmover charts later, too

Flurries in ashburn

PDO is now “only” -1

Just was at the Leesburg farmer market and it was cold. Windy. Saw clouds with snow falling to the south and west.

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it

2009-10 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places.

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. Imagine that.

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

Nice to see some lowland folks cashing in!

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with

Still snowing, smaller flakes, only trace accumulation. Great snow TV

Coming down at a good clip. Car top starting to cave

Light snow falling

I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).

Saw flurries when dropping off my daughter at school. Enough for a trace. Right now nothing, but clouds to my NW look pretty dark and ready to unload. Radar looks clear that way though

I see flakes/graupel on the top of my car. 33

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast.

Ok i’d like this trend to continue for a few more days to a week before buying into this

Which model is this? That's a HUGE change from the previous runs

Lets hope the wheels don't come off this one like last Feb.