Baum

^come sw baby

starting to see some small flakes again. Not sure if it's lake driven in this area.

on cue: WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS SHIFT OVERHEAD,

thats a big number.

probably about 2" of powder down. still very fine flakeage falling.

from HoustonAFD: WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME "LAKE EFFECT" SNOW FLURRIES ALONG SOME OF THE NNW-SSE ORIENTED WATERS OR GALVESTON BAY INTO TONIGHT. OF COURSE, DON'T HAVE EXPERIENCE FORECASTING SUCH THINGS...BUT MAY BE INTERESTING TO SEE AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HINTS AT

Just catching up. Looks like game on. See Dupage got bumped to a warning, which I figured they would if amounts via model consensus stayed the same. Haven't read AFD's yet, but was surprised to see the Lake event aspect shutting off early tomorrow. Thought that might carry on a touch longer. Looks like another day of board following......

too early in the run to know.

word of the day: powder bomb.

light snow already falling here...not sure its flukey or tied to the light snow were expecting overnight with the intial wave. It's about 0 degrees.

yeah, it's tough on the fringes as ticks one way or the other change things dramatically as we know. One aspect is in this cold air won't take much on the far NW edge to squeeze something out. It's be nice to see models hold or see a tick back NW. Thought it's not all about the models as LOT mentioned: " BASED ON A DISCUSSION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC), THE CHANGES HAVE TO DO WITH A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM OVERALL, AND HENCE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ITS BACKSIDE AND IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS."

that's one way to CYA

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated.

appreciate the input.

thinking 4-6" here which is decent bump from thoughts yesterday.

^ gonna be toast before the first flake.

there is a thread for that potential event.

fun LOT tidbit: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE DRIER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FROM WPC ANALYSIS BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK

If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking.

yep. I did look incorrectly. Game over.

I'll take the scraps.

^ agreed. Climatology would say so. But that doesn't end cold and snow. Hopefully, by St. Paddy's day were on our way to an early spring.

Idaho, brings back memories of the evil knievel snake river jump. Those were the days.....

gonna find a way to snow.

that'd be okay.