Baum

my weather office counters yours and raises you one: THE ENVELOPE OF FORECAST LOW TRACKS RANGE FROM A PATH NORTHWEST OF US THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEAST OF US THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY (EACH WITH DIFFERENT TIMING). SO, BE WEARY OF ANY PREMATURE SPECULATION OF WHAT, WHEN, AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY FALL.

This is how LOT started todays AFD:"AFTER A WINTRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN A BIT MORE TO START THE WEEK." a wintry stretch is now an inch of snow over a 72 hour period with a day below freezing. Ouch.And now back to cloudy and 30 degrees. Looks like the change was about 5 degree lower daily temps with clouds. Winter of our discontent rolls on.

models are just having a hard time with the pattern change.

who knew you could be underwhelmed when expecting an inch plus?

that won't cut it.

coating sun peaking through.

bring it.

calling for 1-2" tomorrow. I'm giddy.

see RC going with 1-2" overnight into tommorow AM in pm afd. Might get Alek to his dusty 2" call 7 days out for chicago area peeps. At this point I'll take anything.

been awhile since since I've seen cloudy and 35 degrees.

or they decided status quo is the path of least resistance.

^ yeah, it's ugly. No way to run a pattern change.

heavy duty snowshower.

^ I'll bank on 12

exactly. Rarely, if ever, recall a closed upper low in mid January not generate a stitch of cold air. And to project this further the aftermath of this still leaves us in a seasonal temp regime despite a northwest flow pattern. Not a good look, or what I anticipated.

when it shows in the virus thread you know the moderator has finally cracked.

checks in on short term thread.

I never really was thinking much today or tonight. Was more thinking the backside snowshowers/squalls just to make it look a bit more like mid winter. Hard to get to revved over a slushy inch not panning out.

keep posting. Maybe Mchenry can live vicariously through your postings. Pictures a plus.

agreed. ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. * WHERE...CENTRAL IOWA.

I think this was our last great mid winter hurrah: https://wgntv.com/weather/super-bowl-blizzard-officially-chicagos-5th-largest-snowstorm/ and this was ugly: https://watchers.news/2019/04/28/chicago-record-snow-april-2019/

nowcast.

sans 1978,1979, 1999, 2014, one of the more eventful New Years. And yes, it has been a slow winter, but it is far more typical and common that folks would like to acknowledge. Very rare is it that we get a winter that runs the table like 2014...like maybe 1979 (note even that ended about sometime in February). Remember plenty winters that did not begin until mid January and ended up making decent runs. By hook or crook we'll probably surpass 30" and end up near average. Agree with Beavis if you think you get non stop snow and cold here from December 1-February 28 rarely happens. If it did, why get pumped-it would be an everyday occurrence. BTW...if you think Minneapolis doesnt suffer days on end of single digit temps with no snow check around. Upper Penninsula by Beau different story.

13 days. large part of LOT under a WWA on New Years Day. And truth be, the mid range forecast of a 2 week stretch of dullsville was spot on.

RC delivers the goods in the PM LOT longterm AFD today. Good read. Hope is alive.