Baum

This was fun one to track: WHEN LOOKING AT REGIONAL PRESSURE TRACES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAS BEEN ON THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PATHS WITH A NOTABLE SOUTHERN TREND ESTABLISHED IN EACH SUCCESSIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST OVER THE PAST FOUR SUCCESSIVE RUNS. AS A RESULT, THE DEFORMATION "COMMA HEAD" REGION IS VERIFYING SOUTHEAST OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND IS LARGELY CENTERED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTERSTATE 39. AN INTERESTING NOTE THIS MORNING IS THE CLEAR PASSAGE OF SEVERAL MESOSCALE GRAVITY WAVES THROUGH THE DEFORMATION SHIELD, WHICH WAS WELL ADVERTISED BY CAM GUIDANCE 24 HOURS AGO. EACH WAVE WAS MARKED BY A LOCAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE, AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS (OVER 60 MPH IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN).

Wind seems far less than expected.

Yup. Sweet radar look. Rare, it looks as modeled.

Shift change at LOT. WWA expanded as well.

^ban

Let them have thier fun.

At the minimum I’ll have a free skating rink for 36 hours

Don’t they already have 20”? And part 2 hadn’t started

Looks to me like it’s going to develop one helluva back end defo band in the cold conveyor

Subtle upticks in accumulations further east.

Does LOT upgrade to Blizzard warning for Boones Farm County and go WWA for remainder of CWA ?

Everything’s working back to that ICON solution from Friday. Which Chicago Storm has been quietly riding.

Not really. He’s basically saying still a lot of moving parts and not to trust anyone solution. Which is playing out in real time. Note the model shifts just in the last 12 hours. Which is why I complemented LOT. Issued a conservative call but with some flexibility if short term trends change. Looks like 2-4 still in play here in Dupage. I’ll take it and than gladly close the book.

Seems to me LOT has played this pretty good thus far.

Looks better than the 0Z when I

I missed you’re call for this event what is it?

What’s your outlook for this event?

Soon as I’m out. They pull me back in.

If only

Seen a lot February’s come up lame on the snow front through the years. Not new. To get back on topic have also seen a lot of these March defo bands with these deep big cyclones surprise on the back end snow front as well through the years. Really don’t want zero windchills with 40 mph winds and a coating come Monday.

That office has some real moments over the years.

I’ll have what he’s having

Bad timing. I’m actually up there next weekend for my fantasy baseball draft.

Rumors of late March 2012 are surfacing. Bring it.