Baum

January doldrums……

Stick to weather. Something you know. There your observations are spot on 25% of the time.

Looks like more will be circulating through.

Ground coated with this shower. Be nice if they hold on for awhile.

Expected that best shot is south. Perhaps a couple of wind whipped snowshowers that may reignite Lionel Ritchie’s concussion concerns….sorry meant Jordan Love NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR: FARTHER TO THE NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED DCVA IS FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH AT LEAST EPHEMERAL LOW-LEVEL F-GEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR. WHILE MODELED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH, THE REMAINING PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS WELL TIED TOGETHER/COHERENT. THAT SAID, RECENT HRRR, HRDPS, AND RAP RUNS HAVE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SIGNAL FOR LOCALIZED STREETS OF ENHANCED QPF IN THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. MAIN TIMING FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ABOUT 5 PM TO 1 AM. MUCH LIKE SUMMERTIME CONVECTION, MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO SNOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WHILE NEARBY LOCALES MAY PICK UP A QUICK INCH OR SO.

Game Time: THIS MAY CHANGE A BIT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF IOWA AND WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A ROBUST 700-500 MB VORT LOBE. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY INTO THE 20S DURING THIS PERIOD, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT CURRENTLY TO THE LEVEL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW SQUALL SET UP, BUT QUICK COATINGS WITH WIND- WHIPPED SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ON THE TABLE, MAINLY DURING THE 6 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE (EXTENDED RAP FOR EXAMPLE) DEVELOPING UPWARDS OF 50-75 J/KG OF NEAR-SURFACE CAPE (WHICH MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE), CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRUE SQUALL-LIKE ACTION IN SPOTS, SO SOMETHING WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

Salt gone.

Looking forward to the salt washer today.

Start the thread: Bear Down Thump Event

SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.

Yup. Just had a week of pure winter. 20’s and two dusters. Long long way to go in these parts. Of course, if your banking on endless days of cold and snow that rarely happens in these parts. Seen winters where the first real snow didn’t hit until a foot on the last day of January. Actually going to enjoy the 40’s and hopefully a salt washer at weeks end. Probably, snow 20” after next week to close out the month.

You already had 14 days….

My guess is when it’s all told it was one of the more wintery Decembers in awhile. And unfortunately winters can be days on end of 33 and clouds. Rarely wall to wall snow and cold. Throw in a tornado warning for some as good measure.

Crappy way to run a Holiday torch.

Ground is white again.

True. And I don’t care.

Never concerned.

Always does. Was always a red flag. In the Midwest as well.

Mount Holly update: NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 620 PM update... Well, that changed quickly. The models that were surging in the warm air aloft (NAM in particular) seem to have mostly had a handle on things, at least across our CWA, with most areas already changed to freezing rain and sleet. Have made a significant cut to snowfall totals, which necessitated dropping the warnings for Monroe, Warren, Middlesex and Monmouth counties. That having been said, we are now starting to get anxious about ice accumulation, since several more hours of freezing rain may put some areas in the game for ice storm warning criteria (1/4 inch). Made some upward adjustments in the ice forecast and will watch obs closely over the next few hours.

A RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 MAY RETURN TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR SNOW BY MIDWEEK. oops.

Forecasted high of 41 now for Christmas. Zzzzzzzzzz…….

Confirmed.

Hearing rumors my 60 degree Christmas is getting flushed.

are we still doing 65 on Christmas?

Even today felt great out. Once I accept the pattern change I’m all for clearing out the slop.