NOAA notoriously rides the el nino train at a cost even when it is becomes apparent that changes are afoot. This winter has had always two sides. A typical el nino year or a year where it turns wintry in January as the pattern breaks. Almost everyone had a warm December across the board. And while Decembers as a whole have been warm, early or late season snows and cold have typically offset this consistent strong Februaries not withstanding. We are now into the time where we see how things break. Note, that even the areas that do well in a nino year have really not stuck to that pattern which may argue this is not going to be a standard run the table warm winter for this forum.