Baum

They were both right. There should be much appreciation. The forecast was clearly wrong, and it should have been clear by 7:30 PM that freezing rain in a good chunk of the area was going to be the predominant precip. type. Odd thing is as I pointed out yesterday there discussion points hit on the potential hazards but didn't translate to the actual forecast. Granted, it was a complicated call for sure. But even today, a wind advisory when they are calling for 1-2 " of afternoon/PM snowfall with 35 mph wind gusts/blowing snow with minimum .25 ice on trees maybe underdoing the potential hazards.

remember when?

Not terrible out. Coating of snow providing traction on most surfaces plus temps aiding in melting. LOT calling for 1-2 inches of snow with high winds later today after a .25 of ice put us in a wind advisory after the ice storm warning expires. Hopefully some melting before the wind kicks in.

^ yup. I'm thinking we might get the ice we didn't get last week. With that wind could be in for more tree damage.

potential for an inch or two as it pulls out.

starting as sleet. Not a good sign, as I'm guessing we go to freezing rain next....

to me, if the weather discussed in the AFD comes to fruition we'll have an upgrade to a warning in these parts by the late evening update if trends play out. Of course, advisory vs. warning is all just wording to me. Though I suppose the designation is important in communicating to the general public. Just read the updated forecast for Dupage (which is mostly north of I-88)and it differs somewhat from the AFD: 1-3" with .10 of ice. No anticipated trowal accumulations tomorrow despite the AFD stating concens for a couple of additional inches. Little bit of disconnect between the actual zone forecast and the AFD...but I'm sure it's hectic.

snowier this way than other models...3-4". Wonder how much Ice to go with that?

wow. gone in the span of 24 hours.

12Z NAM sure looks icy around here.

it's exactly what the forecast is. 1" south with Freezing rain to 6" up your way. Looks fine.

looks snowier in these parts

^ looks like that map was created at 2:41 am. Not sure if any changes are necessary.

Looks to me like both the 6Z NAM and GFS went south as well.

am i correct in being somewhat disappointed in tonight's early runs?

Trends are weak,south, progressive tonight via models. Looks like another nuisance event.

^ I'm riding that and the Canadian for this one.

never been a big wind guy myself.....

Your plots make it look more normal. On Pivotal's map it appeared to from E/Central Ill due north. Yep, another consistent track over us. Not good for a decent snow.

^ Bizzarre. If I'm seeing things correct comes E/SE into central Il. and than heads due north?

^ The trend has been for all of these storms to track over or just north of Chicago. Until you see a marked change in the pattern that's probably the way to go. Hope here is there is enough residual cold air to get some front end WAA snows prior to the change to Ice/Rain. And than a change that starts to get these storms tracking through the O/V from mid February-Mid March.

best post of the new year. No surprise.

haven't seen a precip plot, but thinking that's still a decent hit for us given the movement of the low pressure E/SE out of the plains into W/C Illinois and than heading NE

Canadian is my model of choice here.