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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 811 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020 UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM CST SUN FEB 9 2020 SATURATION HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT, AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT WARMING ALOFT, QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WETBULB 32 IS ALREADY FOUND ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEWTON IA, TO MUSCATINE TO MACOMB. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE, WINTER IMPACTS WILL BE EITHER NON EXISTENT, OR VERY SHORT TERM. FATHER NORTH, ALONG I-80, WE ARE SEEING NARROW F-GEN BANDS OF MODERATE MIXED SNOW AND SLEET, WITH SOME RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. THAT SHOULD TEMPORARILY SWITCH TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, AS THE COLUMN COOLS DUE TO EVAPORATION AND DYNAMIC LIFT. HOWEVER, THE INTENSE WAA WILL WIN OUT BY LATE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE. OUR HEADLINES CERTAINLY REPRESENT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN ONE OUR OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THIS PROCESS, AND WILL KEEP THEM IN PLACE UNTIL +32 WETBULB TEMP AND SNOW LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY

place under a WWA. LOT with a great write up this AM....just a sampling:HAVE SEEN PERIODIC GLM LIGHTNING FLASHES AND EVEN A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED, SIGNS OF THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROBUST HYBRID CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH CONTINUED ON THE 00Z CYCLE, INCLUDING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. PREVIOUS HOLDOUT GFS SUITE TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CYCLE. THE MEAN SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BRINGS ITS BROAD SNOW SWATH OVER THE CWA, WITH THIS LIKELY BEING FROM A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AREA BASED ON THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. ....LOT AM AFD on the potential. If 12Z holds might be thread time.

huh?

glad I checked in. Let's get this done, and I'll take the early spring. Euro stays on course...who starts the thread?

SUNDAY SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. BLUSTERY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. ..... TYPO ..happens

"THE HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS OVERLAP THE PERIOD MOST FAVORED FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES. THESE ELEMENTS COMBINED ARE WHY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ALREADY TO INCLUDE 1/2SM SN MENTION IN THE TAF."...LOT 18Z Aviation discussion

if this were the case LOT would have to consider a WWA, although I guess RC mentioned the rare SSA(snow squall advisory)...looks like Izzi is in the house. If anybody would pull the trigger on that it'd be him.

^ no use bellyaching about a 2-3" potential in a winter like this

December was dry as a bone...minus the system that scooted through St. Loius and Indy. In my mind, we have not had a true amped storm that wraps up in the winter season in almost two seasons. NAM looks better on this event it seems. Hoping for a 2-4" event...pipe dream I'm sure...

reality....the usual trends have been weak fades to the south...not saying that would be the case here.

^ i have no issue with an ealry spring meaning consistent 50's and 60's beginning in March. But it never works out that way...climo, I guess.

your in SE Michigan....does nothing for me. Though, I'm good for anyone else scoring.

No 00Z NAM update. All you gotta know. Ready for 60's and sun,

you best enjoy it. and that's probably aggressive. Tip: don't read point and clicks.

I'd take another 2-3" hit. Beggars, can't be choosers in this winter of discontent. Heck, could be the snowiest 4 day period of the winter.

never works that way.

^ nice

easy toss on those two. We are clearly in a pattern where storms should be on the models 5 days out. The fade does not occur until within 36 hrs.

If winter trends hold it will fade south and end up another wet dog turd duster. Mad town will see a few flurries.

how much did you get on halloween..? nice steady light snow here with good sized dendrites.....

SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) SHOWERS LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, LES INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTLES OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. LES MODE (SINGLE STRONG BAND VS. MULTIPLE LIGHTER BANDS) REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES EXISTS DURING THE EVENING FOR ORD/MDW, AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR GYY per lot aviation afd 12z

LOT not biting big on LES event for NE Illinois. Perhaps 1-2" down from a quick gaze. May get that 2-3" yet...

I'm probably the last guy to ask. But trusting a short term model that suddenly pulled that type of swing on a lake event is far from certain, I'm hoping to get 2-3" out of this whole event.