Baum

what's your call? say .5" downtown....

model watching time has ended, imho.

^ settled. Now we know why Alek makes calls like he does...

take a step back....

we're going to need it. word on the street is this might be our January highlight.

frozen mud doesn't track up the floors...unlike swamp muck.

That concoction in mid January will still be with us by Spring break. Lovely. 3" of snow. A dash of sleet, and a glaze of Ice. A touch of drizzle, than a mini thaw. Flash freeze and some snowshowers with 30 mph winds.

^ thanks. And a well thought out polite way to say 2.5" before a sleet fest.

i'm in.

based on forum feedback I'm guessing 12Z runs were status quo................................................

^ keep hope alive.

Perhaps irrelevant. Warm air surge of moisture pushing over a cold dome. Forecast was for a 2-4" with a change to sleet and ice. Began as Heavy snow and lasted from say 2-10 pm. Put 8 " down in that time period. Bigger difference was, if my recollection is correct, cold air had been much more entrenched. And in no way am I saying this is that....just a reminder that sometimes these do overperform...that was an instance

Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....

This is the point where we get our hopes up for a decent event........

ride the euro....

looking like a mere 1-2" before changeover. Have to hope for an earlier onset to do better. In most winters this event is barely worth a look given trends.

^ Fantastic read. Not necessary, as we here all know how difficult it is to forecast, but certainly therapeutic to reevaluate how a system evolved and what caused a forecast to not unfold as anticipated. In my laymen's terms....we got screwed Saturday night from a 3-5 " fall by a transient squall line. In the end, we all took it on the shin with this one. Also, certainly more eloquent and disproves ALEK's "rainer" call. Posts like this show why these boards can be extremely relevant and educational. Thanks, again.

this is our spring. just expect it for another 120 days.

final tally. DAB...ALEK almost hit it spot on......seasonal trends ftw

No question gonna bust on my 3" call. But I do think winter has begun. On to the next.....

coming down nicely. Still got the Christmas stuff up and everything is white and beautiful against the lights. Tremendous winter evening. Hoping to hit that 3.1 call. Going along as expected. edit: only downside rutgers lost.

light glaze on everything in these parts. Frizzle mixed with some light snow. Actually legit snow starting to commence. Not sure if lake aided or the defo band is developing overhead.

LOT 12:01 update still calling for 2-5". Even if it's a 1-3" fall really not a bust for chicago proper...unless your saying the amount of rainfall busted based on forecast. Which is fine by me. I'd rather not waste my winter QPF on nighttime rainstorms.

I'm still in the game. Heavy Rain to a period of Ice and back end Thump. Call of 3.1 could work.

right on track in mby. If I get 3" in the back end. Went as planned. Actually, surprised went to frozen so quickly..albiet light.