The Euro has been doing this quite frequently for the past two seasons. Amps systems too far NW. And then weakens and shears them a to the south east as they approach. Rep is overblown.
I think 3-4" QPF has always been a pipe dream. Esp given convection south. I expect an inch rain...a bit of frain.....2-3" heavy wet snow. NAM looks on target QPF wise. And this is for 20 miles due west of loop.
True. Given my experience for MBY a rainstorm. dryslot. Brief period of frain/sleet. Surprise defo band of 2" perhaps a bit more. J just don't want a cold april.
I'd debate a number of these assertions(prognostications) but it's really not worth the effort anymore. If your winter weather hound it's just good to have something to track.