Baum

^ https://www.weather.gov/lot/2016feb24_snow

solid event still, if it's the correct solution.

perhaps. I sort of like where much of N. Ill sits for this one. Agreed, anything can happen, shifts, weakening trends, temps. too warm for accumulation, and so on. I've pretty much experienced every way for an event to underperform. Either way, were in the game, and tracking and watching model trends along with forum banter is 80% of the fun for me. Perhaps, we'll end up presently surprised and the naysayers can just sit back and enjoy as well.

too conservative. As currently modeled taking into account enhancement you'd be in the prime area for 6+

another day of model watching....game still on.....

quality post.

last two winters. Though, sometimes that's a positive.

if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too.

would you say you've been modeled consistently for 5"-10" for the last 48 hrs?

compromise of euro/gfs is golden.

In all my years I've never seen someone hit a ratio accurately. You'll know when it's happening.

huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING.

truer words never said.....

LOT: THE GENERAL TREND IN GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF WOULD BOTH SUGGEST A FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, DESPITE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS BOTH FAVORING NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. FOR PLACEMENT, THIS FORECAST CYCLE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, SO AS TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN MAKE A LARGE SOUTHWARD ONLY TO HAVE LATER RUNS SHIFT BACK NORTH.

Curious, what did yesterday's 18Z NAM show you getting accumulation wise versus this afternoon's run?

was referring to Hawkeye stating the UKMET being correct. Probably should have responded to him versus your post.

post mortems get done after events not during. Way to early to declare any model victories at this stage as todays model runs vs. NWS watches being posted show.

Will be interesting to read their PM AFD....as that seems like an odd move given todays runs. Does not include Dupage or Cook...so clearly discounting any south east fade....

ALEK gonna bust low....

I don't know. Personally, I'll take today's Euro run any day. Realize, this is all subjective based on where one resides and how the storm impacts them. And there is concern with any relevant event and will it verify. But a 6" + event seems reasonable at this point.....

really 36 hours to go and some "more as the models turn".....as I said meltdowns are a comin.....

Am I missing that this looks like a solid 5"-10 " event with potential for greater totals through the heart of Chicago Metro, and a 200 mile wide swath of plowable snow from NE MO. through S and central lower Michigan? Perspective's are getting a bit skewed me thinks. 15" plus events are rare to say the least. Also, some fluctuations in intensity and path are part of the game. Yesterday after 12Z runs everyone had it in Madison, today Toledo. To me, models have now all converged on a high quality snow event with a 30-50 mile fluctuations both north and south.

i don't think this will be Thanksgiving weekend 2018 or the late April storm last spring. If it comes to fruition expect a bit drier consistency as time plays on....fingers crossed.

tractor beam.

Meltdown watch in effect....