Baum

Festive if anything, to open the holiday season. Maybe a whitening on the newly strung garland and lighting. Beats 62 and open golf courses in my world. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PAIRED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A LARGE SPECTRUM OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+ (10:1) SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS CENTERED ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING IS >=60% EVEN AT THIS EXTENDED LEAD TIME. THE ECMWF/EPS DEPICTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUITES, BUT ULTIMATELY IT'S MUCH TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS, ASIDE FROM FEELING COMFORTABLE WITH ~60% POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUR MAIN MESSAGE IS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. -LOT

Too soon. Let the hope and hype build for another 48-72 hours before you crush dreams.

LOT is certainly intrigued. FWIW. Probably should pick the snowblower from Ace Hardware. Dropped it off for pre season maintenance service in October 2019.

Easy toss.

Who’s going to start the thread: “Post Turkey Day Hooker” :BEYOND THANKSGIVING, SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TURN TOWARDS A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. OVERALL, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO FAVOR UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF GREATLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR STEERING NUMEROUS IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION. ACCORDINGLY, SOME PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT AS IS TYPICAL, WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE, THE FINER SCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCLEAR AND WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. STAY TUNED. - LOT

Rarely has anyone captured the pure excitement of our recent run of weather, so well and descript in written word.

He has spoken.

It’s November 18th. The only thing I’ll hang my hat on is we’re more than due for a decent December period. As are we due for a pattern of Oklahoma hookers and Saskatchewan screamers. Until than I’ll have to keep reading statistical posts from the Climate Changer on repeat.

“Delayed” is the polite way of denying “poof” in the weather world I’ve come to learn over the years. It’s like that saying, “how did you go bankrupt? Real slow at first, and than all at once.

Bad sign.

Not a thing this cold season. Build an arc.

Replaced by Bam Weather. Old habits die hard.

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1988365006270771297?s=61 https://x.com/juliecar94/status/1988411163311534385?s=61

You did it to yourself.

Ouch.

Coming down just west of I-355 in Chicago metro. Did not expect to see this so soon. Understood could be transient.

Read the AFD to go with it. Someone still has the potential to get 72”.

This is your winter.

I’ve already got more than I expected. Snowing and blowing out my window.

I’ll believe it when I see it. Life time early season lake snow/snow event if it were to verify.

What’s the earliest WSW you’ve ever received?

Who’s the lunatic that walked into LOT’s forecast office and started sending out forecasts?

Second event in weeks with similar look. Let’s hope it’s a long term winter trend versus blowing our load in early November

Last 60 these days is normally Christmas week

You missed the joke, my friend.