Baum

LOT's 6-9 call looking about right.

We'll have to pick our poison it sounds like. More shear and less totals for a hit through the metro or north and get mixing and dry slot issues. Standard fare for most winter weather events in these parts.

dubuque.

dryslots always go further north than progged. The good news using the naked eye on that capture shows the defo band already collapsing back east and south. Would love to get a quick 3-5' in the front end thump before dry slot comes through. I always think a good heavy hit at onset is key for a good event. Sounds redundant, but the big winners get hit fast and hard. LOT discussed the dreaded slot:" AM GROWING CONVINCED THAT THE MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT WILL END UP BEING A KEY PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION TYPES/INTENSITIES AS WELL, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-88 FOR A PERIOD MONDAY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST 700 MB LOW PATH."

looks like totals ticked up a smidge as well. Hopefully, euro can ride this horse home. If so, great win for 4-5 days out on accuracy and consistency. Edit: knocks on wood.

LOT's calling for 6-9" in their watch product which seems spot on. Surprised now to find mixing language in it as well which is concerning. Also, they have always been touting a low ratio event so we shall see. Need model tracks to hold sway and hope the weakening/shear can back off carrying some of the bigger numbers out west further this way along with lake enhancement. Probably a lot to ask for....but I like nice things. another fine afd by lot fwiw.

not at all shocked to see some more realistic totals on models as we close in. Track changes seem negligible. 6"-10" through metro seems on track.

may not make it. But overall still on track. Need to squash that eastward drying trend on tomorrows runs.

I'm 4 cocktails in when does the euro hot? * hit

perspective.

nice.

I ride whatever model shows the most for my back yard. Always have.

steady as she goes

I just want my 8"-12"

I just want my 6"-10"

kicked to the curb.

Re 18Z GEFS: my professional take is I hope that vibrant pink color gets all the way to my back yard.

Actually pretty tame. If this thing hiccups somewhere it'll really head off the rails. Plus it occurred during model down time.

nice try.

How much does it cost to buy a met tag to replace my weenie tag? Event wise 6-10" still looks reasonable. Hopefully, in time we can walk back some of the eastward weakening trends. Glad today's 12Z runs were fairly drama free.

Another day of tracking. Yesterday concerns about a miss south. Now concerned about mixing issues. Tale of the tape. Looks like a solid 6-10" event.

snow shield edging north into chicago metro on this run.

I'm good with this.

Let me help from Lincoln, IL office: OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR (PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH) TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH QPF/LIQUID EQUIVALENT DURING THIS EVENT.

until 00Z