Baum

step back in overnight runs as alluded to by LOT this AM: WE REMAIN LOCKED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ON MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH, HOWEVER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN A BIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT'S CONCERNS OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN VALID, ESPECIALLY WITH THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX ALIGNED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY STICK TO SURFACES CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

going to find a way to snow in this airmass if there is even a hint of moisture.

potential woof. This is the time period to watch as the motherlode of vodka cold seeps south and that moisture feed overuns. Put a solid wave on that and you've really got our first true central midwest blizzard in a few years. Perhaps since the post Thanksgiving blow in 2018. Make it happen.

moves to the front of the line. for one GFS run.

beavis is chasin

your time will come in this pattern.

^ it ain't 1976-1980 by a long shot.

my superbowl evening fluffer event is starting to show.

From LOT( put in every event thread): "AT ANY RATE, IT'S FAR TOO EASY TO PICK UP MORE SNOW THAN YOU BARGAINED FOR IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GIVEN SNOW TO WATER RATIOS OF 25 TO 30:1, IF NOT HIGHER. SO, THE MESSAGE GOING FORWARD IS THAT WAVES OF SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK."

4" call. Will be beautiful to watch fall while grilling with a beverage on a Saturday evening.

is that call for sunday PM?

this pattern gonna snow when models scream no snow.

need one more band post frontal to do it's work to get me to the 3" mark. Should be fun when the wind and cold hit. So far as advertised. To think this was an upper lakes cutter last sunday.

trees are caked. picturesque.

LOT sees it: SATURDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 10 TO 14. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. LOWS 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. SUNDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 5 TO 9 ABOVE. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS 2 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS 14 TO 18. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS 1 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO.

picking up again. Going to need a rally to get to my 3" wishcast. Zone Forecast looks nice: TONIGHT VERY WINDY. SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SNOW IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS 7 TO 11 ABOVE. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

gonna snow along the baroclinic line from 18Z Saturday until 12Z Tuesday. Count on it.

after the brief heavy snowfall for about a 1/2 hour have settled into a light wind blown snowfall.

heavy snow. edit wow. reminnds me of 12/1/78.

starting here with snow flakes.

^ pattern recognition FTW. Caveat: my weenie novice point of view.

don't get sucked in.

pretty much as expected. If it's 37 at midnight tonight after the front that will be something to peak my interest.

projecting snow accumulations in this pattern is a losing game.

Quad cities always good for the hype train: ONIGHT'S FORECAST HAS ALL THE FEEL OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS. THIS MAKES THIS FORECAST PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, AS IT'S REALLY THE COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL VARIABLES THAT WE EXPECT TO CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. SNOW TOTALS TODAY, WHILE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES. RAINS WILL FALL TODAY, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT FROM EXISTING SNOW, BUT ONCE NEW SNOW FALLS, THAT "CRUST" COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO HAVE A LOW FRICTION SURFACE FOR NEW SNOW TO BLOW OVER. THIS IS WELL HANDLED BY OUR CURRENT HEADLINES, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO ADVISORY SOUTH, WHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AND SOMEWHAT LESS WIND. THIS ALL SAID, I AM CONCERNED THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE TO 40 MPH WINDS. THAT COULD FOR A SHORT DURATION TIP THE SCALE TOWARDS BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL TREAT THIS AS A CONVECTIVE THREAT, AND IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE AN AREA OF THE CWA, WE CAN DO IT ONCE THE THREAT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. AT THIS STAGE, THE DANGER IN OUR FORECAST, IS ALSO TAKEN WITH A NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERITY.