Baum

projecting snow accumulations in this pattern is a losing game.

Quad cities always good for the hype train: ONIGHT'S FORECAST HAS ALL THE FEEL OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS. THIS MAKES THIS FORECAST PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, AS IT'S REALLY THE COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL VARIABLES THAT WE EXPECT TO CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. SNOW TOTALS TODAY, WHILE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES. RAINS WILL FALL TODAY, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT FROM EXISTING SNOW, BUT ONCE NEW SNOW FALLS, THAT "CRUST" COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO HAVE A LOW FRICTION SURFACE FOR NEW SNOW TO BLOW OVER. THIS IS WELL HANDLED BY OUR CURRENT HEADLINES, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO ADVISORY SOUTH, WHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AND SOMEWHAT LESS WIND. THIS ALL SAID, I AM CONCERNED THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE TO 40 MPH WINDS. THAT COULD FOR A SHORT DURATION TIP THE SCALE TOWARDS BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL TREAT THIS AS A CONVECTIVE THREAT, AND IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE AN AREA OF THE CWA, WE CAN DO IT ONCE THE THREAT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. AT THIS STAGE, THE DANGER IN OUR FORECAST, IS ALSO TAKEN WITH A NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERITY.

This is a fairly high impact event if I'm reading it correctly. 2"-4" of snow in a 3-4 hour window with high winds and rapid falling temps from above freezing to the ice box. Hopefully it verifies as this is a fun event to continue our winter's comeback.

I'm buying.I don't even know which event is which. I'm thinking this is the super bowl event which would be sweet. This is why I love clipper patterns. Particularly hybrid clippers coming more off the pacific tend to surprise and overperform more often than not. And the potential for a big dog is always on the table. FWIW RC approves: "QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SATURDAY PM WAVE, A CONSISTENT SIGNAL REMAINED IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF SUITE) FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ON THIS POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW, WHICH AGAIN HAS GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, A MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROLONG THE DURATION OF HIGH RATIO SNOW AND ALSO INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR F-GEN DRIVEN MESOSCALE BANDING FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN SATURDAY PM WAVE. WITH MULTI-RUN SUPPORT FOR THIS ON THE ECMWF SUITE, CMC FEATURING IT, AND ALSO SOME MEMBER SUPPORT FROM GFS, BUMPED UP POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILARLY COLD TEMPS TO SATURDAY WOULD AGAIN WORSEN IMPACTS VS AT MILDER TEMPS. "

From Carlaw discussion at LOT: "DON'T THINK IT'S OVERLY OUTLANDISH TO EXPECT A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE THUNDERSNOW IS A POSSIBILITY." good long read on this event just updated btw for those so inclined.

LOT with warning for Watch areas. WWA for 2"-5" north of I-80. Beats the modeled snow eater from 4 days ago.

this event has gotten kicked to the curb it seems.

you have a short memory.

+ 20" pack incoming.

3" still looks on the table.

hype. But I'm not against being wrong. per quad cities AFD:"EITHER WAY, THIS A REAL WINTER PATTERN, THAT WILL HAVE DAILY IMPACTS TO LIFE. "

Re; LOT AFD: ^ not RC. Disregard. That said, the last line is more telling. And 2-4" North and West burbs and 1"-2" along the I-88 corridor with wind and temps crashing should be fun. Potential for more is still on the table.. Reread that write up again, and think it's pretty good and actually think they are fairly impressed.

euro with some cold frosting it seems is all.

maybe more of a back end thump.

Re; Ukie.^ still a 1-3" look as the cold hits. Far cry from what this looked like 5 days ago,

whoa. my frosting idea before the grey wolf comes calling looks a little bit more interesting.

I'm not a great model output guy. But I'm not seeing that. In fact, snowshield here minus the actual low pressure seems to have improved versus 00Z, Again, surging arctic fronts with a a wave riding along it can over perform nicely beyond model output....sometimes. This looks like it has this make up from a weenies blind eye. 3K even better. Not sure it matters at this long distance.

quad cities rake this morning: "SOME PASSING THOUGHTS ON THIS... THIS IS REAL WINTER WEATHER. WIND WILL BRING MOVING SNOW, AND HEADLINED WIND CHILLS DAILY. RIVER WILL RAPIDLY FORM THICK ICE, AND THAT'S BEEN SLOW TO HAPPEN THIS WINTER. WE ALREADY HAVE DEEP LOCAL SNOW PACK EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH, AND WITH LIGHT SNOW ALMOST A GUARANTEE IN ANY ARCTIC PATTERN, I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON. "

^ winter '21 continues to ramp up a decent come back.

looks good for areas up north. Can't over react too much too any one model run. Seen these set ups surprise many times as the front races in and squeezes out any residual moisture. And yes, were talking an inch or two in a flash freeze type set up and not a large scale moderate event. But I like those type events as a winter weather fan. They can't all be 10" snowstorms.

Welp. Looks like I may have to put on a coat when I head out.

if we can pull a 3" snow before the Cold hits we really have flipped the script for this winter.

when's the next one?

nothing special this far west. Ongoing light snow adding to the wintry scene for sure.