Baum

is that call for sunday PM?

this pattern gonna snow when models scream no snow.

need one more band post frontal to do it's work to get me to the 3" mark. Should be fun when the wind and cold hit. So far as advertised. To think this was an upper lakes cutter last sunday.

trees are caked. picturesque.

LOT sees it: SATURDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 10 TO 14. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. SATURDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. LOWS 4 TO 8 BELOW. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. SUNDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 5 TO 9 ABOVE. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS 2 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS 14 TO 18. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS 1 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO.

picking up again. Going to need a rally to get to my 3" wishcast. Zone Forecast looks nice: TONIGHT VERY WINDY. SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SNOW IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF FLURRIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS 7 TO 11 ABOVE. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.

gonna snow along the baroclinic line from 18Z Saturday until 12Z Tuesday. Count on it.

after the brief heavy snowfall for about a 1/2 hour have settled into a light wind blown snowfall.

heavy snow. edit wow. reminnds me of 12/1/78.

starting here with snow flakes.

^ pattern recognition FTW. Caveat: my weenie novice point of view.

don't get sucked in.

pretty much as expected. If it's 37 at midnight tonight after the front that will be something to peak my interest.

projecting snow accumulations in this pattern is a losing game.

Quad cities always good for the hype train: ONIGHT'S FORECAST HAS ALL THE FEEL OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THERE IS A DANGER THAT SEEMS TO EXIST IN ALL VARIABLES I'M SEEING, THOUGH NONE ARE STANDING OUT IN TRADITIONALLY OBVIOUS WAYS. THIS MAKES THIS FORECAST PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING, AS IT'S REALLY THE COMBINED EFFECT OF ALL VARIABLES THAT WE EXPECT TO CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. SNOW TOTALS TODAY, WHILE HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES. RAINS WILL FALL TODAY, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SERVE TO LIMIT THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT FROM EXISTING SNOW, BUT ONCE NEW SNOW FALLS, THAT "CRUST" COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE TO HAVE A LOW FRICTION SURFACE FOR NEW SNOW TO BLOW OVER. THIS IS WELL HANDLED BY OUR CURRENT HEADLINES, WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH TO ADVISORY SOUTH, WHERE LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED AND SOMEWHAT LESS WIND. THIS ALL SAID, I AM CONCERNED THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AND BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE TO 40 MPH WINDS. THAT COULD FOR A SHORT DURATION TIP THE SCALE TOWARDS BLIZZARD WARNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL TREAT THIS AS A CONVECTIVE THREAT, AND IF WE NEED TO UPGRADE AN AREA OF THE CWA, WE CAN DO IT ONCE THE THREAT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. AT THIS STAGE, THE DANGER IN OUR FORECAST, IS ALSO TAKEN WITH A NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY OF SEVERITY.

This is a fairly high impact event if I'm reading it correctly. 2"-4" of snow in a 3-4 hour window with high winds and rapid falling temps from above freezing to the ice box. Hopefully it verifies as this is a fun event to continue our winter's comeback.

I'm buying.I don't even know which event is which. I'm thinking this is the super bowl event which would be sweet. This is why I love clipper patterns. Particularly hybrid clippers coming more off the pacific tend to surprise and overperform more often than not. And the potential for a big dog is always on the table. FWIW RC approves: "QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SATURDAY PM WAVE, A CONSISTENT SIGNAL REMAINED IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF SUITE) FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ON THIS POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW, WHICH AGAIN HAS GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, A MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD PROLONG THE DURATION OF HIGH RATIO SNOW AND ALSO INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR F-GEN DRIVEN MESOSCALE BANDING FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN SATURDAY PM WAVE. WITH MULTI-RUN SUPPORT FOR THIS ON THE ECMWF SUITE, CMC FEATURING IT, AND ALSO SOME MEMBER SUPPORT FROM GFS, BUMPED UP POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILARLY COLD TEMPS TO SATURDAY WOULD AGAIN WORSEN IMPACTS VS AT MILDER TEMPS. "

From Carlaw discussion at LOT: "DON'T THINK IT'S OVERLY OUTLANDISH TO EXPECT A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE THUNDERSNOW IS A POSSIBILITY." good long read on this event just updated btw for those so inclined.

LOT with warning for Watch areas. WWA for 2"-5" north of I-80. Beats the modeled snow eater from 4 days ago.

this event has gotten kicked to the curb it seems.

you have a short memory.

+ 20" pack incoming.

3" still looks on the table.

hype. But I'm not against being wrong. per quad cities AFD:"EITHER WAY, THIS A REAL WINTER PATTERN, THAT WILL HAVE DAILY IMPACTS TO LIFE. "

Re; LOT AFD: ^ not RC. Disregard. That said, the last line is more telling. And 2-4" North and West burbs and 1"-2" along the I-88 corridor with wind and temps crashing should be fun. Potential for more is still on the table.. Reread that write up again, and think it's pretty good and actually think they are fairly impressed.