Baum

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 813 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021 UPDATE 812 PM CST NOT SURE WHAT'S LEFT TO BE SAID THAT HASN'T ALREADY, BUT OUR REMARKABLE SNOWSTORM (CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE) IS ESSENTIALLY HEADING INTO ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME, WITH SNOWFALL RATES MAXIMIZING HERE PROBABLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. THE AXIS OF STEADIEST SNOWFALL HAS SET UP SHOP ROUGHLY EAST OF A MENDOTA TO MCHENRY LINE. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE NOTED WITH BUOYS SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH, WITH NORTHWESTERLIES JUST INLAND. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER NEAR MIDWAY RECENTLY REPORTED AN EXCEPTIONAL 2.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST ABOUT 100 MINUTES. THINK THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL AT THIS POINT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THAT THE JACKPOT AREA FOR THIS EVENT WILL PROBABLY BE 2-3 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A ROUGHLY WINNETKA/EVANSTON TO MIDWAY LINE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AN DONE (AFTER LINGERING LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON), IMAGE WE'LL SEE A HANDFUL OF SNOWFALL REPORTS PUSHING 20 INCHES IN THIS CORRIDOR.

^ bowling ball season.

it's commenced. powder bomb.

LOT Snippet: ARRIVE VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL HIT HARD AND FAST. THIS IS CERTAINLY ONE HECK OF A SYSTEM,

off and on light stuff here...some bigger flakes starting to show. Surprised getting as much wind as we are.

^come sw baby

starting to see some small flakes again. Not sure if it's lake driven in this area.

on cue: WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS SHIFT OVERHEAD,

thats a big number.

probably about 2" of powder down. still very fine flakeage falling.

from HoustonAFD: WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME "LAKE EFFECT" SNOW FLURRIES ALONG SOME OF THE NNW-SSE ORIENTED WATERS OR GALVESTON BAY INTO TONIGHT. OF COURSE, DON'T HAVE EXPERIENCE FORECASTING SUCH THINGS...BUT MAY BE INTERESTING TO SEE AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HINTS AT

Just catching up. Looks like game on. See Dupage got bumped to a warning, which I figured they would if amounts via model consensus stayed the same. Haven't read AFD's yet, but was surprised to see the Lake event aspect shutting off early tomorrow. Thought that might carry on a touch longer. Looks like another day of board following......

too early in the run to know.

word of the day: powder bomb.

light snow already falling here...not sure its flukey or tied to the light snow were expecting overnight with the intial wave. It's about 0 degrees.

yeah, it's tough on the fringes as ticks one way or the other change things dramatically as we know. One aspect is in this cold air won't take much on the far NW edge to squeeze something out. It's be nice to see models hold or see a tick back NW. Thought it's not all about the models as LOT mentioned: " BASED ON A DISCUSSION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC), THE CHANGES HAVE TO DO WITH A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM OVERALL, AND HENCE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ITS BACKSIDE AND IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS."

that's one way to CYA

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated.

appreciate the input.

thinking 4-6" here which is decent bump from thoughts yesterday.

^ gonna be toast before the first flake.

there is a thread for that potential event.

fun LOT tidbit: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE DRIER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FROM WPC ANALYSIS BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK

If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking.

yep. I did look incorrectly. Game over.