Baum

been snowing out with sunshine now for about 2 hours. And sticking.....good times.

on cue: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 541 AM CST THU FEB 18 2021 UPDATE 541 AM CST MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO UP THE CHANGES OF SNOW OVER THE CHICAGO METRO THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THEREAFTER, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT LATER THIS MORNING, SO RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT WELL, BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SOME ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. SINCE THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS AND A GRAPHIC CAST TO MESSAGE THIS CONCERN.

I've got nothing. Feels like I moved to Mchenry. What the ? update: was out and about have maybe 3/4" of crystal ,still falling. Looks beautiful on the tundra piled high. So all is good. Going to miss this next week.

Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now: A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. - quad cities FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines

Yeah. I was a little burnt out after what feels like 4 weeks of non stop thread following. Hoping this sunday event can show some promise so we can salvage another weekend snow. Be 4 weeks in a row. Thinking if we could find away to get one more decent event before the warmer weather hits we can get near some record snow on the ground totals.

A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE AREA SITUATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVIER WET SNOW VERSUS SOME OF THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A GOOD INDICATION THAT WE ARE TRENDING WARMER. STAY TUNED! LOT PM AFD....a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak.

it's never going to stop snowing is it?

slush bomb(firecracker?) ushering in the change.

back to backs rarely work out. Probably going to ride the fence more often than not from here on out. With a small break in the action maybe the weekend event can gain some traction.

It does not appear were immediately going to flip the switch to warm and dry. My guess, back to normal temp wise with a continued active look. Bring the torch in March..please, after we slowly whittle away at this snow pack.

^ a solid win for those that touted winter would make a strong comeback after January 15th.

Nice event. Great to see such a spread the wealth event, and so unusual to see this type of storm in this type of air mass. Moving over to the 17t-19th event to coax it west. Congrats, to those that struck white gold.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 813 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021 UPDATE 812 PM CST NOT SURE WHAT'S LEFT TO BE SAID THAT HASN'T ALREADY, BUT OUR REMARKABLE SNOWSTORM (CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE) IS ESSENTIALLY HEADING INTO ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME, WITH SNOWFALL RATES MAXIMIZING HERE PROBABLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM. THE AXIS OF STEADIEST SNOWFALL HAS SET UP SHOP ROUGHLY EAST OF A MENDOTA TO MCHENRY LINE. LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR A FEW HOURS WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE NOTED WITH BUOYS SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH, WITH NORTHWESTERLIES JUST INLAND. THE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER NEAR MIDWAY RECENTLY REPORTED AN EXCEPTIONAL 2.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN JUST ABOUT 100 MINUTES. THINK THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL AT THIS POINT GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THAT THE JACKPOT AREA FOR THIS EVENT WILL PROBABLY BE 2-3 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A ROUGHLY WINNETKA/EVANSTON TO MIDWAY LINE. WHEN ALL IS SAID AN DONE (AFTER LINGERING LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON), IMAGE WE'LL SEE A HANDFUL OF SNOWFALL REPORTS PUSHING 20 INCHES IN THIS CORRIDOR.

^ bowling ball season.

it's commenced. powder bomb.

LOT Snippet: ARRIVE VERY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL HIT HARD AND FAST. THIS IS CERTAINLY ONE HECK OF A SYSTEM,

off and on light stuff here...some bigger flakes starting to show. Surprised getting as much wind as we are.

^come sw baby

starting to see some small flakes again. Not sure if it's lake driven in this area.

on cue: WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS SHIFT OVERHEAD,

thats a big number.

probably about 2" of powder down. still very fine flakeage falling.

from HoustonAFD: WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME "LAKE EFFECT" SNOW FLURRIES ALONG SOME OF THE NNW-SSE ORIENTED WATERS OR GALVESTON BAY INTO TONIGHT. OF COURSE, DON'T HAVE EXPERIENCE FORECASTING SUCH THINGS...BUT MAY BE INTERESTING TO SEE AS SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE HINTS AT

Just catching up. Looks like game on. See Dupage got bumped to a warning, which I figured they would if amounts via model consensus stayed the same. Haven't read AFD's yet, but was surprised to see the Lake event aspect shutting off early tomorrow. Thought that might carry on a touch longer. Looks like another day of board following......

too early in the run to know.