Baum

when i saw ICON scared me. Thought the virus thread reappeared.

sincerely, doesn't this belong in Buckeye's thread: "Pray for snow for Ohio" it's been an ongoing thread for years. It's where all the Ohioans congregate.

wrong thread.

is this where the 18Z NAM becomes my model of choice?

gonna bust high.

New Years 1985 Redux on the table

MLK Weekend outlook:

Don't disagree. Jerry Taft made a nice career in doing so. So did Roger Triemstra.

given the model trends this seems conservative even for you. If storm goes as currently progged even losing accumulation to intial warmth back end lake enhancement sure to counter that aspect by a good bit. Unless, your eyeing a shift in track from current model runs. Still a ways to go and plenty can and will change.

like a who's who of the pessimists in my neck of the woods

sh*t.

Looks like I was off by a week on this. Saw the pattern and the potential from 60 days out just came up short on timing. Pitfalls of long range forecasting.

still on track. It's all about not being in the "sweet spot" at this juncture. Board points for no one inquiring or posting " that run doesn't matter as it has yet to be sampled" but the chants of "south and weaker" or "strung out POS" have been there from the start. As usual just a snippet from RC's AFD at LOT can save you a lot of time if your in the Northern Illinois area: "THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS HAVE A VERY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INCLUDING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. OVERALL, THE NBM FORECAST FAVORS THE FARTHER NORTH MORE IMPACTFUL CAMPS, SO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM NBM WERE MAINTAINED ON SATURDAY. THERE'S ENOUGH MOVING PARTS TO THE SETUP THAT NOTEWORTHY CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED AS KEY FEATURES MOVE ONTO THE PLAYING FIELD, THOUGH GIVEN HIGH POPS AT THIS LEAD TIME, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE"

pics ?

first call:

solid sheet of white including all pavement areas. Looks like Christmas for a change. And tracking a New Years Eve hooker. Better times.

your on a weather forum with a bunch of snow what do you think you're going to see?

probably dependent on rates. Have never really bought in on some of the better 3-4" totals so if that happens I'll be pleasantly surprised. More important is the worm may have turned.

RIP IMBY season opening snow drought.

^ So you can call him Dr. Modelhugger same as about 80% of the non pro board members here including myself. Twittersphere rules.

LOT actually increased my totals for today up to 2"-4". Not sure how realistic that is but sure looks like the futility record ends today. More noteworthy is how quickly a forecast can change even within a 72 hour window. 3 days ago we were looking at a bland holiday week and now we are looking at 3 snowfall events including a potential major event at least close by and an arctic blast for the new year. Should all of this come to fruition will be interesting to see where ORD stands versus December and winter averages. And yes, I am getting ahead of myself.

Wait....Someone is posting on the 18Z GFS run on an event 5 days away, and we've already established trends 4 days into winter when we've yet to have a legit event? Hello, my old friend I've come to talk with you again........

at first glance that map looks ominous given the color codes than you see it's for a slush accumulation of 1"-3". Guess it doesnt matter how we get on the board just need to get it done.

that Thunder signaled the change.