Baum

mic drop: BE WEARY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN THAT PLUNGES OUR TEMPERATURES FURTHER OR DUMPS INCHES OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS PRETTY DARN VAST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IQR OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500 MB HEIGHT SPANS NEARLY 300 M OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND, SIGNALING ANYTHING FROM A DEEP TROUGH TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE SOLUTION SPACE. SO, GRAB YOUR FAVORITE HAT, GLOVES, HEAVY COAT, AND SNOW BRUSH WHILE FORCING A SMILE ON YOUR FACE DURING THIS UNDENIABLY WINTRY WEEK.-LOT

this X 1000. I ,for one, would blame the "lock"avatar.

Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16. Can't win em all.

yep. the hope is you can spring a big dog while the ingredients are there, Fretting over every 24-36 model depiction of these various impulses in this flow is useless. Embrace the ride.

all good.

Alek hype storm fail. First chink in the armor. And he's MIA.

wow. Purdue just pinned some donkey ears on skillet head. Social media can be brutal.

^ per euro i've got 22.5" more to go through the next 10 days. Pumped.

snowing nicely here. Sounds like over performance not in the cards today. Irregardless, nice wintry scene and much to follow upcoming. Beats 35 and days on end of cloudy. Hoping for 2 inches.

that's des moines...they always underperform.

^

50" by 2/15 back in play. Who's bitin?

yeah, talk about kick a man when he's down.

board's asleep but our first fluff maker is in bound: 948 AM CST SNOW HAS EXPANDED FROM NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA THIS MORNING. REPORTS ACROSS NEBRASKA HAVE RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS SHOW THE SNOW WOULD LAST LONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AREAS NORTH TO I-88 WILL GET IN ON THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TOO. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OMAHA, NE HAS LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 DEG/KM IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER, AND THIS COUPLED WITH A NICE SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL LAYER AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW THIS SNOW SHIELD TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA WITH EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING IS ABOVE THE PRIME SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER, IT WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY AND FLUFFY, AND WITH 0.1-0.18" OF QPF REPORTED UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED LOCALLY, SNOW NUMBERS OF 1.5-4" ACROSS THE AREA SEEM ON TRACK. ALSO, THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 1/2SM TO 3/4SM VISIBILITIES ACROSS IOWA. WE DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING AS THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY FALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN DAYS PAST, BUT 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL DRIFTING OF THIS DRY SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS RURAL AREAS. CAUTION IS URGED TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN. -per LOT AFD update

I'll take my 1/2 inch and be happy. LOT: AS ANOTHER MORE SHEARED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MID- MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING

step back in overnight runs as alluded to by LOT this AM: WE REMAIN LOCKED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW ON MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WE ULTIMATELY END UP WITH, HOWEVER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN A BIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT'S CONCERNS OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN VALID, ESPECIALLY WITH THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX ALIGNED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY STICK TO SURFACES CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

going to find a way to snow in this airmass if there is even a hint of moisture.

potential woof. This is the time period to watch as the motherlode of vodka cold seeps south and that moisture feed overuns. Put a solid wave on that and you've really got our first true central midwest blizzard in a few years. Perhaps since the post Thanksgiving blow in 2018. Make it happen.

moves to the front of the line. for one GFS run.

beavis is chasin

your time will come in this pattern.

^ it ain't 1976-1980 by a long shot.

my superbowl evening fluffer event is starting to show.

From LOT( put in every event thread): "AT ANY RATE, IT'S FAR TOO EASY TO PICK UP MORE SNOW THAN YOU BARGAINED FOR IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GIVEN SNOW TO WATER RATIOS OF 25 TO 30:1, IF NOT HIGHER. SO, THE MESSAGE GOING FORWARD IS THAT WAVES OF SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK."

4" call. Will be beautiful to watch fall while grilling with a beverage on a Saturday evening.