Baum

biggest optimist on the board. and i agree, completely.

Can any other weather office top this? LOT: " A 135+ KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A 150+ KT MAXIMUM MOVING FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT JET MAX TRANSLATES, IT WILL SEND A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL WAVE TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND, MORE NOTEWORTHY, INCREASE A LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC (F-GEN) CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE TODAY HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF AN INCREASING SIGNAL OF ENOUGH SATURATION WITH THIS FOR QPF CLIPPING AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO. WHILE THE OVERLAPPING SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE REMAINS BETTER FOR NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AND STILL FAIRLY LARGE SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A HIGH-RESOLUTION SIGNAL TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN ADJACENT AREAS. THE MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE ~2-7 A.M. DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS, RAP, AND HRRR (IRREGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY SHOW PRECIPITATION) DO SHOW MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH PROFILES FOR MELTING ALOFT. FURTHER BELOW, THE PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALSO MARGINAL, AND SOME DEPENDENCY ON EVENING TRENDS AS NOTED EARLIER. SO RATES OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE KEY IN CHANGEOVER AND IMPACTS, AND THAT WILL BE TIED TO ENOUGH WELL-ALIGNED, NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV (INSTABILITY) ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ABOVE THE F-GEN. IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THAT, SO FEEL THAT IF THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED F-GEN BAND INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, IT LIKELY WILL TURN PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INCLUDING ON ROADS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR TO IMPACTING LEVELS STILL REMAINS ON THE LESS LIKELY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT THOUGH TO SEE IF TRENDS SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF IMPACTS. " this is the discussion for a snow shower.

he's been for awhile. Pops in periodically, starts a big snow thread, screws us, and than moves on.

ahhh April.

^ delving in deeper: " MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLAIL ABOUT RUN TO RUN WITH HANDLING OF A POTENTIAL MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE THAN MANY OF THE RUNS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. OVER THE PAST WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED A LOWER THAN AVERAGE SKILL LEVEL BEYOND 120 HOURS IN OVER OUR REGION AND OPTED TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO NBM GUIDANCE WHICH ADVERTISES MAINLY SNOW CHANGES IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. WOULD FULLY EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM, SO THE POTENTIAL OUTCOME OF OUR WEATHER PROBABLY RUNS THE GAMUT FROM A SNOWSTORM TO RAIN TO NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE. KEY MESSAGE AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE THE FORECAST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WARRANTS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE CAN BEGIN TO HONE IN ON A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. " only forecaster IZZI would raise to full on pops 5 days out on a model suite that says "tone it down". Daycrew will adjust accordingly if models remain status quo. Was getting a tad excited. Reality restored.

looks like an early December forecast to me: TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

get the thread started: TUESDAY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

How much snow did Chicago have last year on January 10, and what was the final season total? As I recall folks were posting we were going to set all time futility records in mid January and I think that idea got squelched pronto. Don't have the time to look up last year but I'd love to see how the back half played out, and I know December was a disaster. I'm hoping for a nice turn around mid month this season.

Dittos, but you don't want to go too deep waiting on accum's either. Basically, any year starting post-Dec 5th was pure garbage. I'd rather not roll those dice. Y'all need something on the board at ORD, unless ofc, you're rooting for a lame-ass winter. Rarely, in a Chicago winter do we have a real "snow" event logged at this point. I agree, if your simply focused on accumulation totals 5" of stat padders that melted on contact help in that game. But my recollection is many winters that started out WAD and flipped to cold and snowy were some of the best. To me, when the pattern shifts in our favor, and it will, it won't go to waste as it would in pre December events.

probably have 20 inches down by Christmas. Fake October and November events rarely mean much in my book.

bust is to polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD.

The Great Winter Solstice Blizzard of '21 is on the table for Chicagoland.

It's typical/seasonal late November weather. I get it's a complaint thread, but were not quite to "brutal".....................................................................................................yet.

^ seems about right for a November storm.

it'll look like mid November which is fine.

In the "what the" and "where did this come from?" category: "GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL BAND OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR INTO, OR VERY CLOSE TO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA, WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL, THE BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SO TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE OVERLY HIGH, BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATES, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCAL AREAS PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OUT OF THIS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, THEN HOVERING AROUND, OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS AS A DECENT RATE COULD ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASS, SO THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IF THIS MATERIALIZES. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MONDAY EVENING. " I have to say LOT has the best AFD's these days. They can do 3 paragraphs on the potential of a snowshower.

flakeage here. unexpected, but good mood setter as we head towards winter.

^ same

LOT smartly tempering any expectations and staying conservative with a rain/snow mix.

This isn't February.

thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse: "A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID- LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO 675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. " This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO.

draw a line 15 miles north of Cedar Rapids, Ia to 15 miles north of Mchenry, Ill.

That 12Z GFS map looks an awful lot like my map for Christmas eve. I believe it has the pattern correct just 30 days too soon. The usual GFS bias.Time will tell.