Baum

2"-5" er while we bide our time waiting for the main event. Not terrible.

NAM seems to agree.

A+....and needed while riding the lock avatar.

easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed.

Model hugger exposed.

now's as a good of time as any for a coup. Ironically, over the weekend it was the other globals that painted a better picture while the GFS flooded the country with brutal cold. Now the script has flipped. We know from historical reference it can go either way. Hate to see us escape this pattern without a decent high end event.

^ agreed most models aren't seeing it. Model of choice: 6Z GFS. Glad, it's finally getting it's act together.

not good trends in our neck of the woods for another arctic frosting event. But these can change on a dime 6-8 hrs out,

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 812 PM CST MON FEB 8 2021 UPDATE 812 PM CST A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUES RIGHT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING UP TO 1" PER HOUR RATES OF FLUFFY SNOW. THIS BAND SEEMS TO BE DRIVE LARGELY BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ENHANCED BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVERHEAD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LEVEL (7.7 DEGREES C PER KM PER KDVN 00UTC RAOB) AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT, HAS SUPPORTED THIS SINGLE MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW. HIRES FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS AREA OF SNOW WELL AT ALL. HOWEVER, IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 2 HOURS), IT APPEARS THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THAT THIS BAND IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE CITY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY PLANS TO EXTEND THE ONGOING ADVISORY PAST 10 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE JUSTIFIED. KJB

parachutes falling fast.

I was afraid to say anything.

^ post valentines blizzard the mother lode drops in.

Most of the day real nice mood flakes. About 2 pm flake size became very small similar to Saturday's event and did so for maybe a half hour before the larger dendrites mixed in steadily and eventually became the main flake type. No reason to make up. Perhaps a bad description. But it is a nice steady snowfall now. Should add my location is 63rd and Belmont in Downers Grove today.

^ I'll pass out kudos when I have 3-4" of fluff down. Snowing light to moderate with nice dendrites now.

starting to see a few large flakes mixing in with the ongoing dust.

this is it?

there is a february 10-12th thread.

I guess if you want to debate semantics regarding mid winter or late winter that's fine. My point regarding the issue of the depth of the cold and it's severity for this time of year stands.It's cold no doubt. But it is not unusual or extreme cold for this time of year in the midwest. Now if Chicago doesn't break above 20 degrees before February 20 or we get hit with an airmass that puts us at -20 I'd say we have achieved brutal cold. or unusual cold longevity.

^ typical cold for a mid winter arctic outbreak.

1. since the change in pattern on or about 1/15 Chicago has done quite well as some predicted. 2. Though I don't see anything big imminent, any of these waves may surprise, and if not repeated 1-2 " fluuffers every 24 hours are on the table. I get, not for everyone. But it is a deep winter pattern with a deep snow pack. 3. I don't see a way out of this cold pattern without a decent storm. 4. I'm not an expert, Instinct , pattern recognition, historical reference.

nah. believe.

before this pattern ends most in this forum will be satisfied. minus pondo.

tread lightly.