Baum

I'm getting mine this morning. But I do have to chuckle at "SOME" of the "do it for others" crowd that insure they get to the head of the line through clout or political means while folks in their 70' and 80's and with alzhiemers sit and wait on a list. I'm in line as the wife is a teacher and been in class since August. I provide daycare 40 hours a week for my mother who has alzhiemers. I have seen 30 year olds who screamed the loudest about protecting others get the jab while I have seen others in thier 80"s with diabetes who haven't been out since last march have to wait in line get it. You can keep the hypocrisy part of it. I get there is no fool proof plan but still....

you can tell we've had a decent run. Board kind of meh regarding this potential moderate fluffer. Interject some lake enhancement and I've seen these surprise quite nicely. I'll take another 3-6" if I can, A month ago we beg for this.....

^ I'll set the floor at 4" IYBY

GFS was my model yesterday AM when it hit us with the wound up cutter. Now, it's an easy toss due to lack of consistency. 18Z looking like its starting to see where it should be snowing.

^ easy answer. no question. Carlaw another great read, and seems like quite a bit of good new blood. I think they've been great. Sidenote: ride the Saturday snow trend...third week in a row.

I hadn't checked out the GEM and and did not bother to check out Euro snow maps, but pretty clear the wide swath of overrunning in a wide area is becoming less to an untrained eye. And yes, I remain optimistic we can pull another moderate event out of this set up. Good to see you feel similar based on current takes. Still 48 hours out and in this pattern much can change quickly.

I think we can officially put this to bed. Take your1-2" if you get lucky and hope for a transient lake feed to help.

snowing again.

now do the weekend event.

It's actually not true. The issue is the 2/3/21 12 Z Euro painted a >20" excess band of snow over a 7-10 day period and everyone got pumped. But for a realist you would have to know it would not pan out exactly to that particular run. Still, the idea of frequent waves moving through the flow every 24-36 hours has been exactly correct. 2/5-2/6(1"-4" underperformer N. Illinois/Iowa), 2/8 AM (Central Ill 3-4" overperformer), 2/8 PM (2-5" N. Ill overperformer), Today(1"-3" on the table), Thursday (1-2"), Fri-Sat possibilities and so on. It has been very busy and active. And yes, it does seem models pop a big event and than lose it a run later which was expected and common for this pattern. Still, this shows the volatility of the pattern with plenty of cold, low pressure waves and or overunning set ups. I still side with it's only a matter of time before it all comes together. Probably, breaks this pattern in doing so, Too much time on my hands today.

Sorry for the little off topic. And not trying to be a smart azz or randomly be negative on someone's performance. But in truth, mostly less than one paragraph descriptions or analysis even in short range situations. I scan these pretty much daily, and have been surprised at the fact you can glean nothing new or in depth from their discussions.

interesting not seeing much discussion regarding GFS in theses more under the hood AFD's: QC: THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, WE'LL STAY VERY COLD AT THE SURFACE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOT:THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SUBTLE MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOWER TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE A COUPLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN IL BY 00Z, BETTER CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEAR TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE TRANSITS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA. MODELS VARY WITH TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH A GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY, WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS, DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.20" RANGE HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days.

2"-5" er while we bide our time waiting for the main event. Not terrible.

NAM seems to agree.

A+....and needed while riding the lock avatar.

easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed.

Model hugger exposed.

now's as a good of time as any for a coup. Ironically, over the weekend it was the other globals that painted a better picture while the GFS flooded the country with brutal cold. Now the script has flipped. We know from historical reference it can go either way. Hate to see us escape this pattern without a decent high end event.

^ agreed most models aren't seeing it. Model of choice: 6Z GFS. Glad, it's finally getting it's act together.

not good trends in our neck of the woods for another arctic frosting event. But these can change on a dime 6-8 hrs out,

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 812 PM CST MON FEB 8 2021 UPDATE 812 PM CST A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUES RIGHT ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING UP TO 1" PER HOUR RATES OF FLUFFY SNOW. THIS BAND SEEMS TO BE DRIVE LARGELY BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ENHANCED BAND OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVERHEAD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LEVEL (7.7 DEGREES C PER KM PER KDVN 00UTC RAOB) AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT, HAS SUPPORTED THIS SINGLE MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW. HIRES FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS AREA OF SNOW WELL AT ALL. HOWEVER, IN THE NEAR TERM (NEXT 2 HOURS), IT APPEARS THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING AS IT LOSES THE BETTER UPPER JET SUPPORT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THAT THIS BAND IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY INTO THE CITY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY PLANS TO EXTEND THE ONGOING ADVISORY PAST 10 PM. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE JUSTIFIED. KJB

parachutes falling fast.

I was afraid to say anything.