Baum

big wet flakes. not bad.

for those watching: WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION COVERING MOST OF THE STATE OF IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT'S CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN PRETTY IMPRESSIVE OUT OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH AROUND 6-7+" OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE OMAHA AREA OVER A SIX HOUR PERIOD! WE WON'T QUITE REALIZE THOSE SNOW TOTALS OR SNOWFALL RATES, BUT THE LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION (GENERALLY 7-8 C/KM THROUGH AND ABOVE THE DGZ) WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW RATES NORTH OF I-80, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THE GOING FORECAST IS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PIERCING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. MODELS HAVEN'T HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ITS PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY NOW WHICH IS NOT QUITE THE CASE. IF THE DRY SLOT CAN HOLD ITS OWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN THAT COULD CUT INTO OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT, BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DRY SLOT IS CONTRACTING AND WON'T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS BY THE TIME IT WOULD CROSS INTO OUR AREA.

nice of you t nice of you to throw him some wet table scraps.

yup, a 1"-3" wet snow on a warm front is grounds for disappointment. how fast things change.

well, it was a good 4 day run for the chicago pics to own top billing.

been consistent for 3-4 days out. Hope for 3" with some convective type periods. Ending as drizzle. It was a good run.

Sounds exciting per LOT PM AFD: HOWEVER, ONCE THE WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN ERODED VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMIC COOLING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LENDS ITSELF TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF LIGHTER, BUT STILL STEADILY-FALLING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL THINKING REGARDING SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY 2-3" EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 (WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO AROUND 4"), 1-3" ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80, AND AROUND 1" WELL SOUTH OF I-80. WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND A NOT QUITE AS DEEP DGZ SUGGEST THAT 7:1 TO 10:1 SNOW RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED SOUTH OF I- 80 AND 9:1 TO 12:1 RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF I-80 AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL EAT INTO OVERALL SNOW TOTALS THERE) AND IF ANY SUPPORT FOR F-GEN BANDING MATERIALIZES, WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL OVER A NARROW REGION BY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

Mchenry still gets the shaft. The Geos days have long since gone.

yep. still flakin. Third Thursday eve in a row flakes been flying.

You could be right. Sometimes we get southern Ohio weather too. But it's okay too hope to maybe pull a quick 3"-5" er out of these set ups every now and than.

circa 1979

^sort of a bookend if I have events correct, which isn't easy. As the 4th ushered in the coldest of air, and this would essentially end that stretch.

^ that's a classic.

been snowing out with sunshine now for about 2 hours. And sticking.....good times.

on cue: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 541 AM CST THU FEB 18 2021 UPDATE 541 AM CST MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO UP THE CHANGES OF SNOW OVER THE CHICAGO METRO THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF THE CHICAGO AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THEREAFTER, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT LATER THIS MORNING, SO RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT WELL, BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SOME ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE LAKE. SINCE THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS AND A GRAPHIC CAST TO MESSAGE THIS CONCERN.

I've got nothing. Feels like I moved to Mchenry. What the ? update: was out and about have maybe 3/4" of crystal ,still falling. Looks beautiful on the tundra piled high. So all is good. Going to miss this next week.

Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now: A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. - quad cities FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines

Yeah. I was a little burnt out after what feels like 4 weeks of non stop thread following. Hoping this sunday event can show some promise so we can salvage another weekend snow. Be 4 weeks in a row. Thinking if we could find away to get one more decent event before the warmer weather hits we can get near some record snow on the ground totals.

A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE AREA SITUATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVIER WET SNOW VERSUS SOME OF THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A GOOD INDICATION THAT WE ARE TRENDING WARMER. STAY TUNED! LOT PM AFD....a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak.

it's never going to stop snowing is it?

slush bomb(firecracker?) ushering in the change.

back to backs rarely work out. Probably going to ride the fence more often than not from here on out. With a small break in the action maybe the weekend event can gain some traction.

It does not appear were immediately going to flip the switch to warm and dry. My guess, back to normal temp wise with a continued active look. Bring the torch in March..please, after we slowly whittle away at this snow pack.

^ a solid win for those that touted winter would make a strong comeback after January 15th.

Nice event. Great to see such a spread the wealth event, and so unusual to see this type of storm in this type of air mass. Moving over to the 17t-19th event to coax it west. Congrats, to those that struck white gold.