Baum

LOT smartly tempering any expectations and staying conservative with a rain/snow mix.

This isn't February.

thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse: "A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID- LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO 675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. " This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO.

draw a line 15 miles north of Cedar Rapids, Ia to 15 miles north of Mchenry, Ill.

That 12Z GFS map looks an awful lot like my map for Christmas eve. I believe it has the pattern correct just 30 days too soon. The usual GFS bias.Time will tell.

I get it. Just an FYI, I'd say today has been a tad more partly sunny as opposed to partly cloudy. Have to say nothing frustrates me more than having a mid July heatwave wrecked by blow off clouds from an MCS 250 miles to my west and north.

Looking like another great day. Going to hit the arboretum for a run today. Fall color looks prime. The obsession on the sky cover needs to end: 'TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. MONDAY MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.' Let's just go for "Fair and Mild for the season"..nit picky, but good luck trying to get the November sky cover call exactly correct. Noticed this was even worse during MCS season.

Really, prefer the turn to winter to come last few days of November or early December. These early starts in November have spelled doom for the month of December and the Holiday season. I'll take the rapid flip to winter right around December 10th.

my early thoughts on Christmas eve. Let's see how I do.

Oddly, with TV mets my prerequisite was never the degree....I thought presentation was essential.

sorry, worth repeating. This is going to be great for LOT winter AFD's one way or another: "MOST OF THE AREA WILL TAKE A BREAK FROM FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50'S WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND. " DOOM

Perfect October storm. I'll take a continued step down to colder, a few "When the gales of November came slashin' When afternoon came it was freezing rain In the face of a hurricane west wind" November storms....and then a real snowy December. The early winter shots seem great, but have really screwed this forum in recent seasons around holiday time.

I see LOT now has a forecaster named, "DOOM".....that should play well during the upcoming cold season .....

I could be wrong. But I don't think he was a big fan of one of our non-weather threads. But his weather site still seems to be on going...so hopefully all is well. And hopefully just took his wares elsewhere....

lake breeze cleared you out. Nice.

LOT's call for mid 70's here today looks like a miss. Clouding over now so not as nice a day as expected. See the chances for showers next two days have increased as well. But that's a needed caveat.

this comes to mind: https://worldhistoryproject.org/1987/8/13/the-chicago-flood-of-1987

Dry and 90's ?

Rumor has it getting the poke pretty much guarantees you will receive no snows in excess of 10 inches for a decade. Courage exemplified.

^I use to follow Cohen, but as much as he comes off as a pattern recognition met, he can flip on a dime if models switch. And a coolish late May early June is hardly news. Summer never hits for good in these parts until mid June. Though, based on general thought I'd hoped for a Phoneix, AZ type late May. Probably another case of delayed not denied.

I'm starting to worry this thread might die. Despite the mod's best efforts.

I personally enjoy it. But we all know the new posting for Independence Day is wrong. It should show a fire symbol with "Dust Bowl" italicized. And a footnote saying thunderstorms in the midwest are a thing of the past.

was this post clipped from 1999?

yup. Not a bad evening. Based on forecasts today was thinking this was going to be a nightmare for early May. Ended up with a fire on the patio as the winds faded and the sun shone brightly. Nice surprise.

the palm dude might have screwed us with this thread. But honestly, any moisture is good at this point. Ready for 90's memorial day weekend.