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Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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I'll take it.
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^ blip gone.
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This is great. Thanks. Great write up this AM btw. Unfortunately, alot the chi town crew burnt themselves out model watching until 4 am it seems.
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interesting changes.
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shows still on.
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on the gfs.
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what are you a kill joy? Your supposed to pump the thread.
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Indy can have 15". I'll take 10". Not greedy.
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here we go. surprised with the make up of this set up were seeing this negative trend begin this late in the game. Was hoping we could carry the upbeat vibes right through until go time from 3-4 days out. Rarely happens.
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not a met. I've just seen the NAM do this before. To this point all other guidance screams this is an outlier. Plus no reason I see for such a drop off in QPF as it heads north based on whats occurring downstream. But I'll leave it to the pros for real thoughts.
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Typical NAM. Lowers QPF by .4 18 hours before event. Seen it many times.
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actually shows some crazy extreme amounts that you can pretty much discount. 6"-10" is the call.
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and quad cities AFD takes the bait:"THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM) 'SHOULD' PROVIDE A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK AND HELP ENHANCE THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. SUCH AN ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY STORM TRACK EITHER OVER THE AREA OR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST."
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I'm thinking that low will end up more near joplin,MO as we close in on the date.
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8" call for MBY.
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^big
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I don't think I've seen an Alek call on this event. Perhaps missed it.
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Do you think the drying trend on the 12Z NAM makes sense? Or would you side with the more agreesive 3K version? When you say drier can you post totals say as compared to last nights 00Z run compared to the current 12Z run. Thanks, I'm interested to see how steep the drop off is.
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good sign. It was at this point on Sunday(24 hrs out from GO time) with the last event things began the drier trends. It'd be nice to see it hold tight into the lead up with today's runs.
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appears we're still on track for a solid 6"- 10" event at first glance.
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I'm not at ground zero anymore.
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To be honest, even you need a powerhouse cutter to head into the upper lakes to release the cold south. Once established your in the game. Perhaps not until. Sometimes a short term negative is a longer term positive.
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agreed.
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^ not bad if that's the lame(toss) model for MBY.
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bit o sarcasm there in responding to our resident LOT met. Better chance we flood but as RC stated we push the existing block further east but maybe in time we dislodge some real cold here shortly thereafter.
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