Baum

word of the day: powder bomb.

light snow already falling here...not sure its flukey or tied to the light snow were expecting overnight with the intial wave. It's about 0 degrees.

yeah, it's tough on the fringes as ticks one way or the other change things dramatically as we know. One aspect is in this cold air won't take much on the far NW edge to squeeze something out. It's be nice to see models hold or see a tick back NW. Thought it's not all about the models as LOT mentioned: " BASED ON A DISCUSSION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC), THE CHANGES HAVE TO DO WITH A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM OVERALL, AND HENCE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ITS BACKSIDE AND IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS."

that's one way to CYA

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated.

appreciate the input.

thinking 4-6" here which is decent bump from thoughts yesterday.

^ gonna be toast before the first flake.

there is a thread for that potential event.

fun LOT tidbit: INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EVEN THE DRIER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FROM WPC ANALYSIS BRING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK

If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking.

yep. I did look incorrectly. Game over.

I'll take the scraps.

^ agreed. Climatology would say so. But that doesn't end cold and snow. Hopefully, by St. Paddy's day were on our way to an early spring.

Idaho, brings back memories of the evil knievel snake river jump. Those were the days.....

gonna find a way to snow.

that'd be okay.

would not be surprising to see a deep hard cutter once the PV relaxes and help establish a new pattern.

same

some larger dendrites here now. LOT update: SNOW INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS MORNING GIVING ROAD CREWS AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE HEADWAY IN THEIR CLEARING EFFORTS. HOWEVER, A NEW AREA OF STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FLARE THIS AFTERNOON (LOOKING AT THE 1-4 PM WINDOW) AS A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THE SECOND FLARE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA - THAT WILL BE THE FEATURE TO TRACK AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET

yeah, city along and southeast of I-55 looking good today. Hoping to sneak out a couple inches in that cold air regime even here. BTW....who starts the next thread?.....to late.

got it posted before i could.

nice gentle light snow falling. BROAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW STARTS OFF THE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. MORE FREQUENT MODERATE RATES ARE LIKELY BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES OVERHEAD. A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR TEMPORARY SUB 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY IS SEEN IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE METEOROLOGICAL INGREDIENTS WE LOOK AT, SO CONFIDENCE WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO FOR 1SM VISIBILITY AND 1,000 FT CEILINGS IN SNOW. LOWER ON BOTH CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM 12Z THROUGH 00Z TODAY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS PRESENTLY EXPECTED AT THE AIRPORTS.

have a great trip. Here's to a Chicago blizzard delaying your return.

Mchenry gonna go off.