Baum

in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time.

Dupage county: wife logged in on line as we are both essential and scheduled us for a vaccine within 7 days. Showed up at 8:30 AM on appointment day. We were in and out in 30 minutes. Despite all we've been through hard to believe we may have a vaccine in less than a year for a virus that barely existed a year ago at this time. Realize, it's not the same for everyone. But there are some positives that do exist. My hope is as time goes on my experience becomes the norm. Might add the nurse that administered my dose was well into her 70's and struggled mightily with some of the technology aspect of inputting the tracking info. But as she said," I'm not good at this, but I know how to give the shot" My guess: a volunteer. In the end, there are good people and positive tales.

bankin on lake effect snow on the west shore of Lake MIchigan 84 hours out is a losers game.

if your talking the sun/mon wave where the NAM/GEM show snow and the GFS shows zero...do a compromise like the incoming event and go 1-3".

take it and run

set the floor at 6"

personally, enjoy long duration 2-4" moderate events in deep cold airmass. Especially, on a weekend where I don't have to drive in it,

^optimists counterpoint; you could get 15" over the next 7 days.

excellent under the hood discussion by the LOT forecaster. Even baked in the possibility of an over performance.

1" - 6" is in the bag. Don't fret. And than root for the PV to relax for something better Monday-Tuesday.

start the Feb 18 thread. Title:" If at first you don't succeed, try, and try again."

looks like slightly drier as I'm now at the lower end of the 2-5" call. Still, weekend, ongoing light snow, deep snowpack, bitter cold, and storms to track. Perfect Mid February weekend, Spring training begins next week. No complaints.

haven't looked at a model. but there is this: THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE ON SPECIFICS, BUT THE TREND THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND MORE OVERRUNNING SIGNAL OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

I don't know the amounts, but NAM verbatim, with regard to track looks good and consistent....to me. Also, looks like I-80 corridor does really well. And goes rogue with a band of snow on Sunday. Final edit: I'm okay with this

guessing 3" down here on coldest surfaces or existing snowcover. Lighter snows still falling.

Harder here than anything I saw monday evening. February sun angle no issue.

nice. I think that lake feed is going to be a factor right through the weekend and tuesday's synoptic event.

para GFS at 18Z seems to have a much better look almost like an inverted trough set up that spreads snow shield fairly far north and west of the main storm. Long way to go on this one.

snowing fairly heavy here with nice dendrites. Looks like a combo of system and lake snow.

BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-88 COULD SEE 1-2" DEPENDING ON THE DURATION OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER SNOW RATIO SNOW PRODUCTION. THE ONE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN LAKE IL AND COOK IL COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE/LAND WIND CONVERGENCE MAY REINVIGORATE NEARSHORE TOTALS TOWARD THAT HIGHER PORTION OF THE RANGE.

I don't normally post long AFD's but since this thread has been somewhat quiet thought this was a good read on this event out of LOT: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY, LIGHT SNOW WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STREAMS OVERHEAD. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE "HEAVY" (GENERALLY 0.1-0.3"/HR), SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS BE STEADY AND GRADUALLY PILE UP WITH TIME. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ZONE FROM THE GROUND TO NEARLY 15,000 FEET UP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY FLUFFY SNOW RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20:1 TO 25:1, IF NOT HIGHER. AN ENSEMBLE OF SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SWATH OF 0.15-0.25" OF QPF THAT (WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUFFY RATIOS) WILL LEAD TO A WIDE SWATH OF 3-5" SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF RATIOS OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS END UP HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE EXACT LOCATION AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES (AND IT SHOULD BE SAID SOME OF THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE PAINTING AREAS NEAR I-80 WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS), BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL FALL ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6 PM FRIDAY AND 6 PM SATURDAY. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND LONGER TRAVEL TIMES.

c'mon down.

flurries...the run to 50" by 2/15 continues in earnest

10" or bust by Tuesday morning. I'm still searching for that 50" call for ORD by Tuesday midnight the euro painted last week.