Baum

haven't looked at a model. but there is this: THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE ON SPECIFICS, BUT THE TREND THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND MORE OVERRUNNING SIGNAL OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

I don't know the amounts, but NAM verbatim, with regard to track looks good and consistent....to me. Also, looks like I-80 corridor does really well. And goes rogue with a band of snow on Sunday. Final edit: I'm okay with this

guessing 3" down here on coldest surfaces or existing snowcover. Lighter snows still falling.

Harder here than anything I saw monday evening. February sun angle no issue.

nice. I think that lake feed is going to be a factor right through the weekend and tuesday's synoptic event.

para GFS at 18Z seems to have a much better look almost like an inverted trough set up that spreads snow shield fairly far north and west of the main storm. Long way to go on this one.

snowing fairly heavy here with nice dendrites. Looks like a combo of system and lake snow.

BUT AREAS NORTH OF I-88 COULD SEE 1-2" DEPENDING ON THE DURATION OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER SNOW RATIO SNOW PRODUCTION. THE ONE UNCERTAINTY WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN LAKE IL AND COOK IL COUNTIES WHERE ADDITIONAL LAKE/LAND WIND CONVERGENCE MAY REINVIGORATE NEARSHORE TOTALS TOWARD THAT HIGHER PORTION OF THE RANGE.

I don't normally post long AFD's but since this thread has been somewhat quiet thought this was a good read on this event out of LOT: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY, LIGHT SNOW WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STREAMS OVERHEAD. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE "HEAVY" (GENERALLY 0.1-0.3"/HR), SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS BE STEADY AND GRADUALLY PILE UP WITH TIME. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ZONE FROM THE GROUND TO NEARLY 15,000 FEET UP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY FLUFFY SNOW RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20:1 TO 25:1, IF NOT HIGHER. AN ENSEMBLE OF SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SWATH OF 0.15-0.25" OF QPF THAT (WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUFFY RATIOS) WILL LEAD TO A WIDE SWATH OF 3-5" SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF RATIOS OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS END UP HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE EXACT LOCATION AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES (AND IT SHOULD BE SAID SOME OF THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE PAINTING AREAS NEAR I-80 WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS), BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL FALL ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6 PM FRIDAY AND 6 PM SATURDAY. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND LONGER TRAVEL TIMES.

c'mon down.

flurries...the run to 50" by 2/15 continues in earnest

10" or bust by Tuesday morning. I'm still searching for that 50" call for ORD by Tuesday midnight the euro painted last week.

I'm getting mine this morning. But I do have to chuckle at "SOME" of the "do it for others" crowd that insure they get to the head of the line through clout or political means while folks in their 70' and 80's and with alzhiemers sit and wait on a list. I'm in line as the wife is a teacher and been in class since August. I provide daycare 40 hours a week for my mother who has alzhiemers. I have seen 30 year olds who screamed the loudest about protecting others get the jab while I have seen others in thier 80"s with diabetes who haven't been out since last march have to wait in line get it. You can keep the hypocrisy part of it. I get there is no fool proof plan but still....

you can tell we've had a decent run. Board kind of meh regarding this potential moderate fluffer. Interject some lake enhancement and I've seen these surprise quite nicely. I'll take another 3-6" if I can, A month ago we beg for this.....

^ I'll set the floor at 4" IYBY

GFS was my model yesterday AM when it hit us with the wound up cutter. Now, it's an easy toss due to lack of consistency. 18Z looking like its starting to see where it should be snowing.

^ easy answer. no question. Carlaw another great read, and seems like quite a bit of good new blood. I think they've been great. Sidenote: ride the Saturday snow trend...third week in a row.

I hadn't checked out the GEM and and did not bother to check out Euro snow maps, but pretty clear the wide swath of overrunning in a wide area is becoming less to an untrained eye. And yes, I remain optimistic we can pull another moderate event out of this set up. Good to see you feel similar based on current takes. Still 48 hours out and in this pattern much can change quickly.

I think we can officially put this to bed. Take your1-2" if you get lucky and hope for a transient lake feed to help.

snowing again.

now do the weekend event.

It's actually not true. The issue is the 2/3/21 12 Z Euro painted a >20" excess band of snow over a 7-10 day period and everyone got pumped. But for a realist you would have to know it would not pan out exactly to that particular run. Still, the idea of frequent waves moving through the flow every 24-36 hours has been exactly correct. 2/5-2/6(1"-4" underperformer N. Illinois/Iowa), 2/8 AM (Central Ill 3-4" overperformer), 2/8 PM (2-5" N. Ill overperformer), Today(1"-3" on the table), Thursday (1-2"), Fri-Sat possibilities and so on. It has been very busy and active. And yes, it does seem models pop a big event and than lose it a run later which was expected and common for this pattern. Still, this shows the volatility of the pattern with plenty of cold, low pressure waves and or overunning set ups. I still side with it's only a matter of time before it all comes together. Probably, breaks this pattern in doing so, Too much time on my hands today.

Sorry for the little off topic. And not trying to be a smart azz or randomly be negative on someone's performance. But in truth, mostly less than one paragraph descriptions or analysis even in short range situations. I scan these pretty much daily, and have been surprised at the fact you can glean nothing new or in depth from their discussions.

interesting not seeing much discussion regarding GFS in theses more under the hood AFD's: QC: THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, WE'LL STAY VERY COLD AT THE SURFACE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOT:THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SUBTLE MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOWER TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE A COUPLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN IL BY 00Z, BETTER CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEAR TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE TRANSITS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA. MODELS VARY WITH TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH A GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY, WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS, DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.20" RANGE HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days.