Baum

not a disaster. Despite the more subdued concern regarding amounts the models consistency over 4 day period in the track of the main swath of snow has been fairly impressive.

Not a dumb question. This is the debate. In this case this does not seem to be an issue according to some. Which, me a novice also would agree. Just seems were riding a weakening wave as it moves east. Thus lowering totals as it moves east. Not unusual.

pretty clear the 12Z Euro from yesterday was the first to sniff out the fading moisture as this heads east. Tonight's runs continue to fade totals in LOT zones including GFS and NAM. Looking more like 3"-6" event with little lake enhancement. Still be a nice event for holiday as opposed to 30's and sunshine.

^not that I'm a pro by any stretch, but just the fact it is not a classic wound up storm it is not drawing a huge moisture feed from the GOM. Caveat, one of the reasons were not seeing some of the higher totals some models implied earlier on.

highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath.

see ILX posting warnings suspect in collaboration with LOT. Guessing a call for 4-8 across the board.

where's spartman when you need him?

I would not expect any changes.

mid morning LOT update: "NO CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST AS WE AWAIT THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE, BUT THE GOING MESSAGE OF AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF SOME EARLY LAKE-ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY EVEN START OF AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NE ILLINOIS BEFORE THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ASCENT ARRIVES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS"

I rode that trend to over 40" in a 6 week period last year. And multiple back to back 6" events as well.

^ wasn't the icon the first to sniff out the southeast weaker strung out POS trend?

Gino Izzi with a nice succinct on point AFD for this AM. Clearly hits on Alek's lakeshore call: " NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL, AS WARMING MARINE LAYER COULD CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS INITIALLY AND IF THE LAKE EFFECT DOESN'T RESULT IN MUCH ACCUMULATIONS, THEN THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. CONVERSELY, IF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL, THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS" time to make a call and will go middle of the 4"-8" envelope with 6". Shame this thing is sort of booking. That said, breaking ORD's New Years Day snow record the same winter season we set the late snowfall futility record and all within one week will be frosting on the trees so to speak. And as LOT points out:"WINTER IS OFFICIALLY HERE!"

when it disappears on tonight's NAM please don't panic. Of course, that's usually within 24 hours not this far out.

hmmm. He didn't it mention while trolling our snow thread.

looking good still. Seems were on track for a 4-8 or perhaps a 6-10 event. Hoping we don't land in the 3-5 advisory level category in the western burbs. Tonight's runs should really begin to tell the tale.

Thank you.

did I miss the GFS snow maps? Feel I didn't see either a 12Z or 18Z.

when i saw ICON scared me. Thought the virus thread reappeared.

sincerely, doesn't this belong in Buckeye's thread: "Pray for snow for Ohio" it's been an ongoing thread for years. It's where all the Ohioans congregate.

wrong thread.

is this where the 18Z NAM becomes my model of choice?

gonna bust high.

New Years 1985 Redux on the table

MLK Weekend outlook:

Don't disagree. Jerry Taft made a nice career in doing so. So did Roger Triemstra.