Baum

hybrid = wild ride. buckle up.

Agreed. Wishcasting, I'll hope for a lake flurry on a northeast wind. When was the last time that happend on storm track that went from Minnetonka, Mn. to Flippin, Ark.?

eastward shift back towards models earlier solutions begins today.

waiting on the 18Z NAM 84 hours out to bring back a snow event is no way to live.

LOT's AFD this afternoon regarding this system is a mastery in how to polish a turd using the english language. Hemmingway would be proud.

neat head fake by the models the last few runs. HP overplaying its hand for the most part. Gas up the snow blower brush.

not a model hugger by any means but 6Z GFS has it go straight south from Minnesota through Misery. Danmdest thing i've ever seen.

not sure the title. But a non pro viewpoint would be some of the models show an almost north to south movement of this system which is quite unique for your normal clipper type systems.

was pretty much on all 12 Z models and coming and going since yesterday: LOT AFD: A SECOND AND STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, BUT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE EURO AND CANADIAN BRING THE LOW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EXITING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING AND EXITING IT SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONCE AGAIN LOOKING TO BE BELOW FREEZING INDICATING AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. Quad Cities: FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. Indy: ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS CONSIDERABLY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL VARIATIONS OF SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW.

bonanza compared to the map postings 4 days ago showing zero qpf through the end of the month.

strange look. Canadian seems like a much more realistic solution.

they always ramp up as we get closer. It's when we get real close is the problem.

Agreed. Shame it will fall overnight. Love the mood flakes during the day in winter.

LOT: BROAD UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SUCH A REGIME TYPICALLY ACTS AS A HIGHWAY FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS EVERY 1-2 DAYS, THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ITSELF MAY END UP RATHER BROAD AND UNFOCUSED (E.G. GUIDANCE IS PRESENTING PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN WHERE EACH CLIPPER WILL TRACK).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 127 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 SHORT TERM ISSUED AT 125 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2022 THROUGH MONDAY... WHEN IN A TRUE WINTER PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST, THERE OFTEN ARE AT LEAST MINOR EVENTS EVERY ~48 HOURS OR SO, AND THAT'S THE CONTINUED CASE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

meanwhile: an some of the roads are terrible. Was probably going 5-10 mph as I approached a stop sign and still started to slide into the intersection. Yes they are. Seen 2 jacked knife semis and 3 cars in ditches in a 6 mile stretch on I-57 in Kankakee County.

last February.

In the last 10 days we have had a: winter weather advisory for 2-4" snow 12/28 winter storm warning for 4-6" of snow 1/1 Wind chill advisory with below zero temps and days below 15 degrees winter weather advisory 1/4 for ground blizzard conditions winter weather advisory for freezing rain/drizzle 1/7 all this in a dead pattern essentially. And certainly better than last year, which eventually went wild for a 6 week period around January 18th. PS you may get a clipper Monday AM which could give you a 1/2 inch.

happend before. it can happen again.

be rolling by the 20th of this month. hunch.

no question.

May.