Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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Gotcha. Really didn't pay attention as much to those models today. Thanks.
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caved to what? Pretty much looks unchanged MBY. What did I miss?
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surprised how hard it's raining here. Immediately thinks: "I'm losing my snow qpf to rain" or "models underestimated the moisture influx and the dry air will lose the battle in my back yard."
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This is the stage of the storm where everyone on the edge of the main snow band exudes hope.
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LOT really no changes except to incorporate Dupage and Kendall counties into main warning areas as opposed to separated out prior. Realize this all cosmetic and only matters to those in Chicago. Key message: no changes to thinking, i guess. Gonna be nip and tuck. If Alek pulls 10" out of his butt crack on this from 72 hours out it maybe an all timer.
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LOT map seems fairly consistent to model consensus. We'll see of they tweek it after 12Z runs. Might be a tad NW. I'm not expecting 7-8" IMBY.
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gorgeous morning out here. Hard to believe that we are on the cusp of a decent winter event
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stop trolling me.
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eh the model burnout is real. It'll be nice just to nowcast soon.
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funny thing is for the majority a realignment matters little, but for those of us riding the fence. It's make or break.
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still agressive. but much more in line with other models. and seems to match LOT zones better. Good luck trying to peg the north cutoff anyways.
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even I, an optimist, thjnks that number at ORD is a tad over exuberant.
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LOT's aviation discussion sums up our fate in a nutshell: IT SEEMS EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE SNOW PARKS OVERHEAD OR REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
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been a while since we had Chicago, Detroit, Michiana, St Louis, downstate IL, Indiana, Ohio inclusive event.
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I don't think there has been much change overnight. Still going to bi sect our neck of the woods with a 1"-12" snowfall. Have to hope some of these short range models are sniffing out a slight north west shift. Which is not unusual to these fronto bands. Won't know until we see the whites of its eyes. Death or Glory.
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past the days where these things could keep me up all night. Was suffering from model burn out anyway given that mby is literally the cut off between 2" and a foot. But if I was jonesing for a 20" might have been tougher. Going to be fun to watch unfold now that were on the door step.
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starts to go check out overnight models and trends. See this: optimism FTW. It's a good thing. Maybe we can continue to tug some of this overunning a touch north. Board going to be lit next day or so. Best entertainment for the money.
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First and final call: Front yard : 4" Backyard: Flurries/No accumulation
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he's down for a 10" call from two days ago. You don't get to back out now.
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LOT Afternoon AFD: DOOM
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reach out to Brian D and have the thread renamed GHD ll.07
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^ wow
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really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY.
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I'm going to take today's 12Z runs for my neck of the woods as a small win. Seems like models are converging on a common solution where I take a 4"-6" event but in the game for substantially more if a small shift north commences and or lake enhancement helps. Chicago folks seem to forget prior to yesterday's 12Z runs only 1 model(GFS) had us in the game at all. So a 2"-10" spread NW to SE across the area is actually an improvement over the past 36 hours, yesterday's 18Z GFS and NAM runs not withstanding.
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fairly decent consensus at this point. We're just watching every 30 mile shift because it matters so much on the edge. Which is unfortunately where were riding. Nice looking storm. Many twists and turns still to come.
