Baum

snow is a highly emotional game.

I like that look.

^ I'll let the pro back me up: THE ECMWF CONTINUED, AS NOTED ABOVE, TO HOLD IN ITS "MIDDLE GROUND" SOLUTION, WHILE THE OTHER COMMONLY CITED OPERATIONAL MODELS HELD FARTHER SOUTH (WITH NORTHWARD SHIFTS SINCE 24-HOURS AGO). RC from todays AFD And this is no way throwing full support in the direction of the American models.

yep on Sunday 1/30 00Z Euro run I was out of the game. Euro worked back to this. As a sidenote, I'll post Canadian Mean. Look familar? Posting old maps as an attempt to show where a compromise on this event is probably in the cards. Note: GFS always had me in a solid event albeit overdone in the end, but still a warning criteria event.

I think his call looks good as well. Always easier to take the lower end of guidance in a snow call. But to me, a 3-6" call through the metro already says while the GFS was to far north and wet with the main snow band it didn't have ORD at zero which was the Euro look a day ago. Your own call supports what the non american models showed, and the GEM still shows. Fun to debate, but a read back through the previuos event shows that while the GFS was a touch to north and wet the Euro had to work back north to get LOT center zones in the game.

you've been damaged. you need to have faith. Though that out come would be the same as last. And to to say the GFS caved would be false. This time yesterday the Euro basically had the Chicago metro snowless. So in essence it has surrendered a touch to it's American brethren. And again, today is Tuesday. It's a Thursday event.

riding the south end of the GFS and the north end of the Euro. And the talk that the euro caved to the gfs,at least on the overunning event last time is not what occurred in NE Illinois. Both models in concert worked towards a consensus. GFS tip toed south and Euro north. But again 72 hours before the event Euro/Gem had me with not a flake while GFS was consistent with 4-8". I ended up with 6". This time every run of the GFS/NAM makes me worry this thing will amp and I'll get a sleet storm but than the Euro gives me hope a compromise/blend puts me in the sweet spot.

I don't think 0.6 is too crazy

i'm okay with it. golden track for back yard. to bad it's monday night and it's a thursday event.

ban

Both the NAM and Euro 72 hours or so out showed a complete miss for LOT metro. GFS always had us in the game. EURO ticked NW incrementally and as event neared GFS made a slight shift SE where they reached a consensus track. Probably watching the same scenario again. Weenie in me says were going full on amped this go round. It's time. And I'll save the trouble

couldn't have drawn that map better myself.

ok.

NAM works for me.

consensus bust on the Alek call.

every dog has his day.

as usual, highly recommend the LOT AFD for a read by RC this morning. Just a tid bit: " TO A HIGH TO VERY HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW AND WIND EPISODE FOR MUCH MORE OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (IE. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH STRONG GEFS SUPPORT, AND NOTEWORTHY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER SUPPORT WITH THESE MEMBERS NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL). " beyond the pure weather porn aspect of the discussion the detail and analysis of potential outcomes is tremendous. And yes, I cherry picked the part of the discussion that I would like to see verify.

just extrapolating I'm going to hit the grocery store at half time and get all the mini-wieners , beef jerky, and old style I can.

figure a 15 mile shift further north and west each day since that last event due to climatology. Calculations paint me in the bullsye. Models be damned.

apprehensive after a blanket 4-12" snowfall over a good part of MO.,IN,South Mich, Illinois, and Ohio? Now that screams "jaded."

this has always been a slow crew fwiw on a sunday morning.

points for RC today from the LOT AFD for using the term: Arctic Dust.

based on climatology, i like my chances. Old trends sometimes die hard. Time to bury the progressive, weaker trends on ejecting southwest energy riding baroclinic zones. Go with the gut.