Baum

I never really pay attention to the NAM unless it's the 18Z run. All in all, sounds fairly bland.

nothings ever a lock. It's weather.

Chicago had never been modeled for such. And it still looks like in excess of 20" is on the table for those that catch both portions of the event.

To be honest at this point yesterday we were not even in the game per the GEM, EURO, and NAM. If you were anticipating a 2' snowstorm you were always going to be dissapointed. From what I can tell the GFS and Euro have sort of settled on a track that will split the metro. So your call of 4-8" looks reasonable and basically fits what LOT has out. Plenty of wildcards still in play track of main event, lake enhancement, exact placement of frontal band(which many times ends up different than modeled). Bottom line, it's a fun event to track and it sure seems like a good percentage of this forum will see a significant event over a 3 day period. So all is good. Enjoy the chase, as they say.

down time on the board before next model cycle. How bout some entertainment for the Chicago folks:

"beware of crazy ass social media posts"-LOT

ridin the NAM until I see a better model for my back yard next cycle

for Northeast IL folks. All caveats aside that it's NAM 84 out, and I'm a novice when it comes to model interpretation but liked the look of it as it seemed to bring the overunning back north into a good part of the metro as opposed to 12Z which kept it all south. Also, looked like 2nd wave was poised to do some damage as well.

Pretty clear GFS is a northern outlier at this point.

Today's 12Z GFS seems to agree.

you mean the alignment where if stalls 20 miles from my backyard? Nice looking run for those in the over running area.

eh. the model arguments are always subjective and actually vary to ones backyard. Yes, there is consensus on a storm, but go read LOT's last two discussions(which are excellent) and that'll detail the different model outcomes. Looked like the 6Z NAM ticked the initial overrunning band further into my neck of the woods. FWIW/

turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise.

dueling weather PM AFD's Springfield, IL: "ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH/COLDER. " Quad Cities: OF NOTE, HOWEVER, IS THE EC ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOW RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH,

you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well.

i'd be careful with that.

Good news is something to track. Good news is at this point someone is going to clocked. Good news overunning events even minus a wound up storm generally put down a fairly large swath of frozen precip. Good news a decent shot of vodka cold post storm. Good news for NE IL crew lake enhancement should be on the table. Good news we are not looking at 20 and cloudy for the next 7 days. Good news someone who has not had a decent event in recent years has the potential too.

since we've seen some old time poster re-emerge I'd say a weekend camping with Bowme in Wisky's northwoods. As I recall, you guys always hit it off.

southeast and weaker trend to commence shortly.

if only we could get a Bowme post.

on the back burner it appears until The Great Chicago Lake Effect Event 2022 clears out.

good to see there is some north east ILL action. Too many times SE Wisky gets it when winds have more of a NE bend and than it's the usual NW Indy peeps. Hoping to see some flakeage even this far west. Always nice if we can pull a decent lake event.

now under a WWA for 2'-5".