Baum

eh. the model arguments are always subjective and actually vary to ones backyard. Yes, there is consensus on a storm, but go read LOT's last two discussions(which are excellent) and that'll detail the different model outcomes. Looked like the 6Z NAM ticked the initial overrunning band further into my neck of the woods. FWIW/

turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise.

dueling weather PM AFD's Springfield, IL: "ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH/COLDER. " Quad Cities: OF NOTE, HOWEVER, IS THE EC ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS OF SNOW RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH,

you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well.

i'd be careful with that.

Good news is something to track. Good news is at this point someone is going to clocked. Good news overunning events even minus a wound up storm generally put down a fairly large swath of frozen precip. Good news a decent shot of vodka cold post storm. Good news for NE IL crew lake enhancement should be on the table. Good news we are not looking at 20 and cloudy for the next 7 days. Good news someone who has not had a decent event in recent years has the potential too.

since we've seen some old time poster re-emerge I'd say a weekend camping with Bowme in Wisky's northwoods. As I recall, you guys always hit it off.

southeast and weaker trend to commence shortly.

if only we could get a Bowme post.

on the back burner it appears until The Great Chicago Lake Effect Event 2022 clears out.

good to see there is some north east ILL action. Too many times SE Wisky gets it when winds have more of a NE bend and than it's the usual NW Indy peeps. Hoping to see some flakeage even this far west. Always nice if we can pull a decent lake event.

now under a WWA for 2'-5".

Izzi goes with the WSW for 1"-8". Ballsy.

interested to see what LOT will do. ..... maybe flip a coin

exactly.

I'll be posting my totals by noon tomorrow

woah. blast from the past. and same, my friend.

here is your 7 day track: Day 1: Ready to be buried/Love to track Day 2: Models are ugly/ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Day 3: Posts Here comes the Rain Again Video Day 4 Euro comin in hot Day 5 Madison Special/ Final call 1.5" Day 6 Posts Vince Mcmahon Meme Day 7 D-Day: Radar looks grim/Gonna bust high/ Quality flakes/Epic on the lakeshore/ Posts photos of buried cars as lake band pivots through/ Quality storm.

Ballsy. I'm fine with taking the ealry shot at a thread but prefrred "Midwest Bomb Cyclone" or "GHD lll the Return"....fear the term "mess" may prove accurate.

yeah only 4" IMBY...as you say...easy toss.

oddly, if so, I'm not to terribly upset.......

might be living the northeast blizzard vicariously through the weather channel this weekend. Sure hope I get to track my own........

beavis is rocking his tropical speedos today for sure.

euro sees what im seeing quad cities THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. DURING A PATTERN CHANGE MODEL PREDICTABILITY DROPS AND CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN IS INCONSISTENT. AS A RESULT THE GLOBAL MODELS NOT ONLY DIFFER ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THEY ALSO DIFFER ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP/EVOLVE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF. AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.