Baum

ok.

NAM works for me.

consensus bust on the Alek call.

every dog has his day.

as usual, highly recommend the LOT AFD for a read by RC this morning. Just a tid bit: " TO A HIGH TO VERY HIGH IMPACT HEAVY SNOW AND WIND EPISODE FOR MUCH MORE OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (IE. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WITH STRONG GEFS SUPPORT, AND NOTEWORTHY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER SUPPORT WITH THESE MEMBERS NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL). " beyond the pure weather porn aspect of the discussion the detail and analysis of potential outcomes is tremendous. And yes, I cherry picked the part of the discussion that I would like to see verify.

just extrapolating I'm going to hit the grocery store at half time and get all the mini-wieners , beef jerky, and old style I can.

figure a 15 mile shift further north and west each day since that last event due to climatology. Calculations paint me in the bullsye. Models be damned.

apprehensive after a blanket 4-12" snowfall over a good part of MO.,IN,South Mich, Illinois, and Ohio? Now that screams "jaded."

this has always been a slow crew fwiw on a sunday morning.

points for RC today from the LOT AFD for using the term: Arctic Dust.

based on climatology, i like my chances. Old trends sometimes die hard. Time to bury the progressive, weaker trends on ejecting southwest energy riding baroclinic zones. Go with the gut.

People still watch local TV mets?

I'd argue this is only the second SW Low event(provided that happens) or moisture laden over running event of the season. Still, a more strung out solution seems like it has been the way to go for quite sometime. However, that does not preclude a 4"-8" event as we just saw. Or a heavy rain to freezing rain to back end 3" thump. Tis the season. No meteorology here just a amateur take.

"IT IS A SYSTEM WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. "- Gino Izzi.

thought the same. Can't remember the last wrapped bomb.

yep. 12ZZZZZZZZZZZZ's dashed some hope of even a slop event.

beavis approved.

never a good sign when this thread is at the top.

a Chicago winter is fine.

all in. Even seeing some signs of a secondary clipper past the Friday WAA event.

love it. On days with no precip feels so much better out and the added heat energy going to fuel even the clippers on the cold side.

at least the GFS has something to look at.

2" thumper which turns to a drizzle fest and a flash freeze on the back end. Welcome to late winter.

right on cue: THIS SEEMS TO BE THE TREND IN GUIDANCE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEMS. WHILE WE MAY SEE SNOW OVERNIGHT, CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO RAIN. OVERALL IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOK TO BE LOW. You'll get your non-event clipper with a spit of snow and rain and like it.