Jump to content

Baum

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,174

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Baum

  1. Baum
  2. Baum
    I think that gets me to my hope for 4". So I'm on board.
  3. Baum
    so the RAP is right.
  4. Baum
    I'm good cutting totals in half. not greedy.
  5. Baum
    no matter where your at....speed kills.
  6. Baum
    pretty much in line now with current forecast....unfortunately. Hoping eek out 4"
  7. Baum
    Feb 16-17th Winter Storm Potential A-L-E-K replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley Ship has sailed
  8. Baum
    nice active pattern
  9. Baum
    you could never jack pot any of these storms because there was never a model consensus. Even than, jack potting a storm more than 24 hours out is a fools game.
  10. Baum
    winds are howling out there. Be nice to take in some of that 50 degree warmth before reality sets back in. Looks like the transition from rain to snow will be fairly benign here. Call for the back yard is 3" which I'll gladly take. If things pan out as currently projected euro the clear winner here basically being consistent with a 2-4" event for here from 4-5 days out. Tried my best to will it home.
  11. Baum
    no choice but to
  12. Baum
    personally think given the scenario it could be quite a bit underdone on precip. I think this situation has quite a bit going for it. As I say no science just a gut feeling from years of getting punched in it by models.
  13. Baum
    I've decided to pre empt Chicago storm on the 18Z Euro and 00Z NAM. Euro bump NW and wetter. NAM is NW and stronger.
  14. Baum
    so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event.
  15. Baum
    LOT watch I-88 south. Snow amounts negligible, but combined with freezing rain and wind gets them to potential warning criteria. Pretty wild forecast. 50's and melt snow pack followed by heavy rain than freezing rain with 3-7" snow on top. Beats the duster days.
  16. Baum
    thier waiting to crap the bed within 6 hours of the event. why kill the suspense.
  17. Baum
    wasn't really discussing models more watch criteria. Pretty much know they'll run a consensus between NW and SE models. Real question is do they delay decision for next model cycle .
  18. Baum
    going to be real interesting how the LOT boys play this.
  19. Baum
  20. Baum
    yep. that's why I think you'll see a watch posted across the heart of the LOT metro. But always frustrating when you can't get a consensus on track and intensity.
  21. Baum
    LOT currently
  22. Baum
    is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event?
  23. Baum
    was hoping for some movement north to build some confidence in the american solutions. Maybe the euro will bite.
  24. Baum
    you mean reality? While I love to look at 15" kuchera maps IMBY those events don't verify very often. I'll take a 6-12" event and run.
  25. Baum
    if I go 50 degrees and heavy rain to freezing rain/sleet than 5" of snow and a flash freeze that's a pretty substantial event in a 24 hour period. I guess the saving grace it's not followed by a 5 day arctic air mass.
×
×
  • Create New...