Baum

i'm just trying to avoid a shut out, and Alek's spiking the football.

eh I've seen far bigger collapses in the days when your only resource was 312-976-1212(NWS Chicago) and the local TV Mets who were conditioned to only forecast 1-3,2-4, and 4 inches or more. Many times waiting on the snowstorm, looking at the sky for the storm that was never coming. Nowadays, when you have one model all in, and 2or 3 all out you know the game can go either way. It was pretty clear two days ago when the american models burped where we were headed. Real hilarity, is wife's school called a snow day yesterday at 4pm. As a kid, it would have taken 20" for me to sniff an off day...like the 1979 blizzard....and even that took until 7 am.

checks in. F'n Alek. checks out.

^ Great write up CStorm love the mid range analysis. That said, your thread starting days need to take a break. No offense. Hell, last threads I started were in 2014 and I couldn't miss. Might be time to come out of retirement.

remember when you were hoping for a SE trend?

LOT update:

finally some optimism.

from now on all threads should be titled " date possible shit storm".

no doubt. The 0 call is back in play. Those hoping for a flicker of hope for a late swing in Chicago metro are on life support. It happens. Worse, as it fades SE it becomes less consequential to those in the sweet spot.

His call was 0 from 5 days ago. He should be dancing given him shows him getting 3". Lesson for all; set your expectations low and you won't be disappointed. Oddly, that 18Z looks better for areas further NW in Chicago metro.

LOT increased totals for it's southern zones, and upgraded Cental cook Co. to a WSW. Not much change in actual forecast wording so not sure the point.

I think that gets me to my hope for 4". So I'm on board.

so the RAP is right.

I'm good cutting totals in half. not greedy.

no matter where your at....speed kills.

pretty much in line now with current forecast....unfortunately. Hoping eek out 4"

Feb 16-17th Winter Storm Potential A-L-E-K replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley Ship has sailed

nice active pattern

you could never jack pot any of these storms because there was never a model consensus. Even than, jack potting a storm more than 24 hours out is a fools game.

winds are howling out there. Be nice to take in some of that 50 degree warmth before reality sets back in. Looks like the transition from rain to snow will be fairly benign here. Call for the back yard is 3" which I'll gladly take. If things pan out as currently projected euro the clear winner here basically being consistent with a 2-4" event for here from 4-5 days out. Tried my best to will it home.

no choice but to

personally think given the scenario it could be quite a bit underdone on precip. I think this situation has quite a bit going for it. As I say no science just a gut feeling from years of getting punched in it by models.

I've decided to pre empt Chicago storm on the 18Z Euro and 00Z NAM. Euro bump NW and wetter. NAM is NW and stronger.