Baum

your in wisconsin. you've got bigger concerns.

Not that it can't score a win. But it has always seemed to me the HRRR is the model for those not in the game to lean on at gametime to give hope only to be left in the ditch. I've done it repeatedly. Weenie take. Good news for me in this instance it doesn't matter much.

surprised I didn't see a posting that LOT posted a WWA earlier this morning.

it's not on the ground yet. Third wave looking a touch better now as well on the new GFS for our neck of the woods.

ironically, family right behind me has a skating rink. My guess is they'll have a bon fire going and doing just that!

accidently heard cracku-weather on local station going with 2-4". Be nice, if that were a trend in today's models. I'll take whatever I can get. Nice fluffy, snowfall on a saturday night against the background of my remaining Christmas lights with a beverage in hand sounds good.

nice appetizer as we await GHD III

as currently discussed here by LOT this is my biggest event this winter so far, provided it pans out: A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS SHOW TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN, AN INCREASE IN QPF AND AN OVERALL, THOUGH STILL SMALL, SHIFT NORTH TO THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ, THE SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY, PERHAPS INTO THE 18:1 RANGE. THUS ANY INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY ADD TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PART OF THE AREA AND ITS POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE AN NARROW SWATH OF 4-5 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SHIFT NORTH IN THE MODELS LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR WHERE THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY SET UP, THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST IN THE I-88 TO I-80 AREA. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR IN THIS NARROW BAND, FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO LAST ONLY 3-5 HOURS. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, ITS POSSIBLE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED

live look at MBY

The hope is to cover the brown patches until we can perhaps ride a pattern change with some southern stream energy after the end of the month. Duster tracking for now. It's come to this.

I'm not seeing this. Only difference I'd say is the 2nd wave looks to produce better than then the 3rd wave which appears to be targeting Wisky more. All said, a 2"-4" fluffer with 3 separate waves is still modeled. Crosses fingers and hopes last wave slows down a touch, takes a more south track and hooks up with the southern stream. Pipe dream, I know, but it's all we have.

dust bowl era

wave 3 LOT: TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY SLOWING TRENDS AS NOTED BY THE GFS WILL ALLOW THE WAVE TO BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. thread the needle hope for a more significant event. You can always hope.

nothing super significant. But never thought there was. But every model did have 3 clippers from Sat.-Tues. Verbatim potential for 2-4" of fluff. A non event in many years. This year, it's a bonanza. Potential exists in the last car of the train....

verification of real possibilities.

I like clippers. Unfortunaetly, they can be very fickle in moisture and track even within 24 hours. Plus I prefer my clipper trains post a 10" storm with a firmly established vodka cold air mass. This train going to sputter on a patchy brown grass terrain...if things pan out. But it beats the last 7 days, and I see signs of hope at the end of the month. Two months of met. winter gone.

I'm so desperate I'll take a High Wind Event again

definitely aligns with our new climatologically favored time of the year...right near GHD. 22% chance of verification this far out.

i don't live in porter county

start the thread: call it a hybrid clipper.

for the record it was not Bo who fired the first shot. Though he did say the thread was boring. For the record I don't mind being a boring circle jerk. Perhaps some good natured "poking the bear" is what we need to change our karma.

The great irony of this thread is it was started by a Chicago guy. Storm dumped a foot of snow to the west of us and to the east. Didn't really see any crying about it in what has been a down year. And I would hope once it was clear this was not a chicago event no one trolled the thread posting goofy commentary about fake model runs et al. In fact, I followed it as I revel in other folks hitting the jackpot and even saw some congratulatory posting from some of the windy city group. Than, someone decides to fire a shot across the bow (no pun intended) at chi town posters and now thread has regressed into a "he said,she said" POS. Sorta funny, actually. BTW...where's Toronto?

one guy gets 300" of snow every season, the other guy gets a rain/snow mix while just 10 miles from his lakeshore haven they can get a foot. Destined for a clash. Been coming for years. Sorry, folks. Too tempting.

to go along with storm there is this from LOT today: "A GENERALLY ACTIVE AND CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO AN ESTABLISHED EASTERN NORTH AMERICA UPPER TROUGH WITH SHORT WAVES GYRATING AROUND THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY. ONE SUCH WAVE AND COLD REINFORCEMENT IS PREDICTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AND THEN RECENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE INDICATED ONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, THAT'S SORT OF A PACIFIC/ CLIPPER HYBRID. EACH OF THESE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW, MAYBE MORE SO THE LATTER OF THE TWO, AS WELL AS LIKELIHOOD OF SENDING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AGAIN. HOWEVER, NOT SURPRISINGLY CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND DETAILS OF SUCH FEATURES THIS MANY DAYS OUT IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW. PLUS, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF SNOW PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR 5-6 DAYS OUT. THIS IS NAMELY WHY THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) POPS USED IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD ARE STILL ON THE LOWER END." grasping at straws people.

hope springs eternal. Thanks, for that.