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Baum

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  1. Baum
  2. Baum
    His call was 0 from 5 days ago. He should be dancing given him shows him getting 3". Lesson for all; set your expectations low and you won't be disappointed. Oddly, that 18Z looks better for areas further NW in Chicago metro.
  3. Baum
    LOT increased totals for it's southern zones, and upgraded Cental cook Co. to a WSW. Not much change in actual forecast wording so not sure the point.
  4. Baum
  5. Baum
    I think that gets me to my hope for 4". So I'm on board.
  6. Baum
    so the RAP is right.
  7. Baum
    I'm good cutting totals in half. not greedy.
  8. Baum
    no matter where your at....speed kills.
  9. Baum
    pretty much in line now with current forecast....unfortunately. Hoping eek out 4"
  10. Baum
    Feb 16-17th Winter Storm Potential A-L-E-K replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley Ship has sailed
  11. Baum
    nice active pattern
  12. Baum
    you could never jack pot any of these storms because there was never a model consensus. Even than, jack potting a storm more than 24 hours out is a fools game.
  13. Baum
    winds are howling out there. Be nice to take in some of that 50 degree warmth before reality sets back in. Looks like the transition from rain to snow will be fairly benign here. Call for the back yard is 3" which I'll gladly take. If things pan out as currently projected euro the clear winner here basically being consistent with a 2-4" event for here from 4-5 days out. Tried my best to will it home.
  14. Baum
    no choice but to
  15. Baum
    personally think given the scenario it could be quite a bit underdone on precip. I think this situation has quite a bit going for it. As I say no science just a gut feeling from years of getting punched in it by models.
  16. Baum
    I've decided to pre empt Chicago storm on the 18Z Euro and 00Z NAM. Euro bump NW and wetter. NAM is NW and stronger.
  17. Baum
    so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event.
  18. Baum
    LOT watch I-88 south. Snow amounts negligible, but combined with freezing rain and wind gets them to potential warning criteria. Pretty wild forecast. 50's and melt snow pack followed by heavy rain than freezing rain with 3-7" snow on top. Beats the duster days.
  19. Baum
    thier waiting to crap the bed within 6 hours of the event. why kill the suspense.
  20. Baum
    wasn't really discussing models more watch criteria. Pretty much know they'll run a consensus between NW and SE models. Real question is do they delay decision for next model cycle .
  21. Baum
    going to be real interesting how the LOT boys play this.
  22. Baum
  23. Baum
    yep. that's why I think you'll see a watch posted across the heart of the LOT metro. But always frustrating when you can't get a consensus on track and intensity.
  24. Baum
    LOT currently
  25. Baum
    is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event?
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