Baum

your time will come.

yeah, it's ugly. And now we have transient Floridian's in the thread discussing sun and 80 degree temps. Good thing I'm resilient. Already, looking for the next storm. Just read LOT's update. Kudo's for trying to pull this across the finish line as a WSW verification. Houdini would be proud.

cyclone magnet lives.

that office has really added some good mets at least via AFD's. He's now in about 4th-5th place and that's not a shot more a compliment to the others.

Yes.models began showing this on the 12 Z run of Thursday's Euro. The moisture feed argument regarding the gulf was discounted already and is incorrect. A peek at radar shows very little high end convection. Further, the better than expected snows to the west and north minus the dry slot encroaching on Northern Illinois further verifies this as wrong. Snow events are a complicated business that's why they are so enjoyable when you get a special one. Irregardless, beautiful scene of white out there on a holiday all the while watching The Ohio State Buckeyes getting housed by the Utes. Perfect wrap on the Christmas season.

radar looks grim. Heaviest snows for Chi town per IZZI yesterday were progged between 4pm-8pm. Looks rather bleak for that scenario to play out. Hope we can carve out a tad of back end Iowa crumbs in a defo band at some point. Natester needs to post pics so we know it's not just an hallucination. Time for another pour.........

Dupage county. We were 4"-8" in the previous package, and 5"-9" when warning was originally issue. Though, through following models and board chatter it was becoming pretty clear the higher numbers were going to be difficult to achieve. Perhaps we can still get that 6" number. I'm an optimist by nature.

I see LOT finally raised the white flag on their end with this event being a true warning criteria snowfall: .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY TONIGHT PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 6 INCHES. BLUSTERY. LOWS 15 TO 19.

do you want to get flamed for making an optimistic post and using real ground truth to support it?

LOT update. Subtle tip toes backwards: SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ANY IMPACTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ON POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERAL GOOD-SIZED HOLES NOTED IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT SAID, UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON REGION SOUNDINGS (AND WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE MANIFESTED IN THE RADAR RETURNS), AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME DEGREE OF THIS FILLING IN OVER THE LAST HOUR OF SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER JET DYNAMICS. HRRR/RAP COMBO HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED DOWNWARDS A BIT IN THE QPF OUTPUT AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND ENVISION THERE WILL BE SOME "HOLES" IN THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN BETWEEN THE DOMINANT F-GEN FORCING AND AND ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH OUR 4-7" INLAND STILL LOOKING OKAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE. WE'LL SEE IF ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE FULL PM UPDATE.

from ILX: BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR HIGHER QPF. A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

been snowing lightly here. coating most colder surfaces. perhaps bodes well for some lake feed.

natester has kept us well aware of model output for CR

not a disaster. Despite the more subdued concern regarding amounts the models consistency over 4 day period in the track of the main swath of snow has been fairly impressive.

Not a dumb question. This is the debate. In this case this does not seem to be an issue according to some. Which, me a novice also would agree. Just seems were riding a weakening wave as it moves east. Thus lowering totals as it moves east. Not unusual.

pretty clear the 12Z Euro from yesterday was the first to sniff out the fading moisture as this heads east. Tonight's runs continue to fade totals in LOT zones including GFS and NAM. Looking more like 3"-6" event with little lake enhancement. Still be a nice event for holiday as opposed to 30's and sunshine.

^not that I'm a pro by any stretch, but just the fact it is not a classic wound up storm it is not drawing a huge moisture feed from the GOM. Caveat, one of the reasons were not seeing some of the higher totals some models implied earlier on.

highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath.

see ILX posting warnings suspect in collaboration with LOT. Guessing a call for 4-8 across the board.

where's spartman when you need him?

I would not expect any changes.

mid morning LOT update: "NO CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST AS WE AWAIT THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE, BUT THE GOING MESSAGE OF AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF SOME EARLY LAKE-ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY EVEN START OF AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NE ILLINOIS BEFORE THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ASCENT ARRIVES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS"

I rode that trend to over 40" in a 6 week period last year. And multiple back to back 6" events as well.

^ wasn't the icon the first to sniff out the southeast weaker strung out POS trend?

Gino Izzi with a nice succinct on point AFD for this AM. Clearly hits on Alek's lakeshore call: " NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL, AS WARMING MARINE LAYER COULD CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS INITIALLY AND IF THE LAKE EFFECT DOESN'T RESULT IN MUCH ACCUMULATIONS, THEN THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. CONVERSELY, IF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL, THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS" time to make a call and will go middle of the 4"-8" envelope with 6". Shame this thing is sort of booking. That said, breaking ORD's New Years Day snow record the same winter season we set the late snowfall futility record and all within one week will be frosting on the trees so to speak. And as LOT points out:"WINTER IS OFFICIALLY HERE!"