Baum

It's real out there this morning.

were living a balmy North Dakota winter at this point. After a Tennessee Christmas.

^ now we get pumped over blowing snow advisories and sub zero wind chills. Beggars can't be choosers.

yep. guessing will get a window of some decent precip. at some point. But riding the " dry" idea is definitely the safe bet.

meanwhile Gino Izzi comes through again finding exciting potential in a rather benign early January pattern: "IF SNOWPACK REMAINS POWDERY AND BLOWABLE, THEN MAGNITUDE OF WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS." who knew Chicago was the new Fargo.

about that IZZI hype for LOT: "HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SNOW ON THURSDAY HAS DROPPED QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD THE IDEA THAT THE MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, OF THE RESULTING SNOW WILL FALL DOWNSTATE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE TROUGH NOW FORECAST TO SET UP FURTHER SOUTH. A FEW MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN ~HALF OF THE CWA, BUT THE TREND IS CERTAINLY POINTING TOWARD LITTLE TO NO SNOW. " squashed by forecaster DOOM

IZZI to the rescue in the LOT AFD if you need a hype fix during bland times and still recovering from the New Years Day storm fail: "THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING AND COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM WITH SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN/OPEN UP THE CUT OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH THE REMNANT CHANNELIZED VORTICITY MAXIMUM FORECAST TO RIDE THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT, WITH THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SLOW TO DEEPEN THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT IS COMMON BOTH FOR MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE NARROW, CHANNELIZED VORT MAXES THIS FAR OUT, AND ALSO NOT UNCOMMON FOR GUIDANCE TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THIS WAVE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS AND AT THIS POINT, A SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM COMBO IS REASONABLE. THE ECMWF/GEM WOULD BOTH THROW LIGHT QPF WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THURSDAY. THANKS TO THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THERMAL PROFILES FEATURE A VERY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ, SO ASSUMING ASCENT IS RESPECTABLY STRONG, IT COULD BE A VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO EVENT. IF LATER RUNS DO COME IN MORE AMPLIFIED, AS THEY OFTEN DO WITH THESE TYPE OF WAVES, A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE WAVE COULD RESULT IN A SNOW THREAT FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA. CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOW LEVEL FLOW IN A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO POINT LAKE EFFECT FIRE HOSE INTO OUR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES FOR A TIME THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FARTHER EAST, BUT GIVEN WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SET-UP FOR SOMEONE, THIS IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING. A LOT OF MOVING PIECES, SO A LOT COULD CHANGE, BUT THE THURSDAY-ISH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. " It's something.

it was a good run.

time to re up on my JB subscrition for 19.99 per month and be lied too versus the blunt sting of truth.

about 2.5 " I'd say. Nice coat of white on everything looks great. On to the next!

and then it was January.

your time will come.

yeah, it's ugly. And now we have transient Floridian's in the thread discussing sun and 80 degree temps. Good thing I'm resilient. Already, looking for the next storm. Just read LOT's update. Kudo's for trying to pull this across the finish line as a WSW verification. Houdini would be proud.

cyclone magnet lives.

that office has really added some good mets at least via AFD's. He's now in about 4th-5th place and that's not a shot more a compliment to the others.

Yes.models began showing this on the 12 Z run of Thursday's Euro. The moisture feed argument regarding the gulf was discounted already and is incorrect. A peek at radar shows very little high end convection. Further, the better than expected snows to the west and north minus the dry slot encroaching on Northern Illinois further verifies this as wrong. Snow events are a complicated business that's why they are so enjoyable when you get a special one. Irregardless, beautiful scene of white out there on a holiday all the while watching The Ohio State Buckeyes getting housed by the Utes. Perfect wrap on the Christmas season.

radar looks grim. Heaviest snows for Chi town per IZZI yesterday were progged between 4pm-8pm. Looks rather bleak for that scenario to play out. Hope we can carve out a tad of back end Iowa crumbs in a defo band at some point. Natester needs to post pics so we know it's not just an hallucination. Time for another pour.........

Dupage county. We were 4"-8" in the previous package, and 5"-9" when warning was originally issue. Though, through following models and board chatter it was becoming pretty clear the higher numbers were going to be difficult to achieve. Perhaps we can still get that 6" number. I'm an optimist by nature.

I see LOT finally raised the white flag on their end with this event being a true warning criteria snowfall: .WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY TONIGHT PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE EVENING. SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 2 TO 6 INCHES. BLUSTERY. LOWS 15 TO 19.

do you want to get flamed for making an optimistic post and using real ground truth to support it?

LOT update. Subtle tip toes backwards: SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING ANY IMPACTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ON POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERAL GOOD-SIZED HOLES NOTED IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT SAID, UPRIGHT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ON REGION SOUNDINGS (AND WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE MANIFESTED IN THE RADAR RETURNS), AND HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME DEGREE OF THIS FILLING IN OVER THE LAST HOUR OF SO WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER JET DYNAMICS. HRRR/RAP COMBO HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED DOWNWARDS A BIT IN THE QPF OUTPUT AWAY FROM THE LAKE, AND ENVISION THERE WILL BE SOME "HOLES" IN THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN BETWEEN THE DOMINANT F-GEN FORCING AND AND ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NO MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH, WITH OUR 4-7" INLAND STILL LOOKING OKAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE. WE'LL SEE IF ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE FULL PM UPDATE.

from ILX: BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR HIGHER QPF. A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEFED UP QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE I-55 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

been snowing lightly here. coating most colder surfaces. perhaps bodes well for some lake feed.

natester has kept us well aware of model output for CR