Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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i hope the 13" photo in Nebraska followed by the graupel photo in chicago is not telling.
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finally starts snowing after model watching for 3 days....checks board posts, and it's over.
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as a younger guy I used a 4 iron to slice those into the neighbors yard in the cold months. true story.
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now it has to verify.
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LOT PM AFD out. No changes. 8-12" in some their near lake zones Risk of lake effect into Wednesday. What's to complain?
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so we've got past the euro blip? Excellent. That's 7-9" IMBY. I'm good.
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From LOT:" AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYSLOT, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COMPETE WITH DIMINISHING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF MOISTURE REMAINS IN SUFFICIENT SUPPLY, CONVECTIVE-TYPE SNOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS, BUT THIS REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. "
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appreciate the update on what will be a snow grain when it gets to my yard
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Tremendous messaging by LOT on this event in my opinion from a public perspective. Never bit on the high end numbers from 2 days ago and have pretty much stayed the course on a solid 6 " event. The latest update on accumulation refinement between I-39 and I-355 is another nice touch given that area will be in between the best accumulation maxima. Sadly, I'm in that zone..
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optimistic post by Alek at 5am with a storm incoming. That's a dam rare thing these days.
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we rally tommorow.
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only today's runs with the continuous downtick in QPF were a drag. Even so, track pretty much unchanged and consistent since Friday's 12Z runs. Looks like a 5"-8" with some lollipops as forecast by LOT seems on track. If you counted on 12" + you'll be dissapointed. Very well could snow in some capacity in NE IL through Wednesday. Take it and run.
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ride it
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I like the look of the NAM
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without a doubt. But I never really considered this a double digit event. And actually LOT never has either in any discussion regarding amounts. Hoping to hold onto a 4-8 event at this point.
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diasagree. snow events in April always pan out.
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ride the GFS
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eh. he's just weak trolling. Do agree when you see uniform trends like today 24 hours before event we're probably on the correct track.
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when does alek post the suicide booth?
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5.8" 6.7" will update as models come in,
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time for a call: 6.5"
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preemptive strike. Euro bumps north and drier. dammit.
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LOT yesterday:"THE SNOW TYPE WILL BE A WETTER ONE, WITH RATIOS IN THE 7:1 TO 10:1 POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE RATIOS INCH SLOWER UP UNDER COOLING MID-LEVEL PROFILES. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE), THIS SEEMS LIKE IT COULD BE THE CHARACTER OF EVENT WHERE WET SNOW IS PLASTERED ON SIGNS/STOPLIGHTS/WINDOWS."
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we need RC to pop in for emotional support. Despite some of the needless trolling 5-8 or 6-10 was always sort of my thoughts. Hopefully, we can hold tight or get a bump up before commencement. Didn't really see anyone in here booking 12" +. And hard to call underperformer of overperformer 24 hours before the event is to begin.
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my work is almost done here. Going to pop over to the January 26th storm thread and see if I can weaken the block and push it north.
