Baum

ride it

I like the look of the NAM

without a doubt. But I never really considered this a double digit event. And actually LOT never has either in any discussion regarding amounts. Hoping to hold onto a 4-8 event at this point.

diasagree. snow events in April always pan out.

ride the GFS

eh. he's just weak trolling. Do agree when you see uniform trends like today 24 hours before event we're probably on the correct track.

when does alek post the suicide booth?

5.8" 6.7" will update as models come in,

time for a call: 6.5"

preemptive strike. Euro bumps north and drier. dammit.

LOT yesterday:"THE SNOW TYPE WILL BE A WETTER ONE, WITH RATIOS IN THE 7:1 TO 10:1 POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE RATIOS INCH SLOWER UP UNDER COOLING MID-LEVEL PROFILES. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE), THIS SEEMS LIKE IT COULD BE THE CHARACTER OF EVENT WHERE WET SNOW IS PLASTERED ON SIGNS/STOPLIGHTS/WINDOWS."

we need RC to pop in for emotional support. Despite some of the needless trolling 5-8 or 6-10 was always sort of my thoughts. Hopefully, we can hold tight or get a bump up before commencement. Didn't really see anyone in here booking 12" +. And hard to call underperformer of overperformer 24 hours before the event is to begin.

my work is almost done here. Going to pop over to the January 26th storm thread and see if I can weaken the block and push it north.

LOT's 6-9 call looking about right.

We'll have to pick our poison it sounds like. More shear and less totals for a hit through the metro or north and get mixing and dry slot issues. Standard fare for most winter weather events in these parts.

dubuque.

dryslots always go further north than progged. The good news using the naked eye on that capture shows the defo band already collapsing back east and south. Would love to get a quick 3-5' in the front end thump before dry slot comes through. I always think a good heavy hit at onset is key for a good event. Sounds redundant, but the big winners get hit fast and hard. LOT discussed the dreaded slot:" AM GROWING CONVINCED THAT THE MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT WILL END UP BEING A KEY PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION TYPES/INTENSITIES AS WELL, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-88 FOR A PERIOD MONDAY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST 700 MB LOW PATH."

looks like totals ticked up a smidge as well. Hopefully, euro can ride this horse home. If so, great win for 4-5 days out on accuracy and consistency. Edit: knocks on wood.

LOT's calling for 6-9" in their watch product which seems spot on. Surprised now to find mixing language in it as well which is concerning. Also, they have always been touting a low ratio event so we shall see. Need model tracks to hold sway and hope the weakening/shear can back off carrying some of the bigger numbers out west further this way along with lake enhancement. Probably a lot to ask for....but I like nice things. another fine afd by lot fwiw.

not at all shocked to see some more realistic totals on models as we close in. Track changes seem negligible. 6"-10" through metro seems on track.

may not make it. But overall still on track. Need to squash that eastward drying trend on tomorrows runs.

I'm 4 cocktails in when does the euro hot? * hit

perspective.

nice.

I ride whatever model shows the most for my back yard. Always have.