Baum

^ I'll pass out kudos when I have 3-4" of fluff down. Snowing light to moderate with nice dendrites now.

starting to see a few large flakes mixing in with the ongoing dust.

this is it?

there is a february 10-12th thread.

I guess if you want to debate semantics regarding mid winter or late winter that's fine. My point regarding the issue of the depth of the cold and it's severity for this time of year stands.It's cold no doubt. But it is not unusual or extreme cold for this time of year in the midwest. Now if Chicago doesn't break above 20 degrees before February 20 or we get hit with an airmass that puts us at -20 I'd say we have achieved brutal cold. or unusual cold longevity.

^ typical cold for a mid winter arctic outbreak.

1. since the change in pattern on or about 1/15 Chicago has done quite well as some predicted. 2. Though I don't see anything big imminent, any of these waves may surprise, and if not repeated 1-2 " fluuffers every 24 hours are on the table. I get, not for everyone. But it is a deep winter pattern with a deep snow pack. 3. I don't see a way out of this cold pattern without a decent storm. 4. I'm not an expert, Instinct , pattern recognition, historical reference.

nah. believe.

before this pattern ends most in this forum will be satisfied. minus pondo.

tread lightly.

mic drop: BE WEARY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN THAT PLUNGES OUR TEMPERATURES FURTHER OR DUMPS INCHES OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS PRETTY DARN VAST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IQR OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500 MB HEIGHT SPANS NEARLY 300 M OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND, SIGNALING ANYTHING FROM A DEEP TROUGH TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE SOLUTION SPACE. SO, GRAB YOUR FAVORITE HAT, GLOVES, HEAVY COAT, AND SNOW BRUSH WHILE FORCING A SMILE ON YOUR FACE DURING THIS UNDENIABLY WINTRY WEEK.-LOT

this X 1000. I ,for one, would blame the "lock"avatar.

Yes. As a met I'm sure you know the possibility of a shut out with the arctic overtaking the pattern with suppression exists. But I'll take my chances with that given the ingredients exist for some decent events compared to the pattern from 12/1-1/16. Can't win em all.

yep. the hope is you can spring a big dog while the ingredients are there, Fretting over every 24-36 model depiction of these various impulses in this flow is useless. Embrace the ride.

all good.

Alek hype storm fail. First chink in the armor. And he's MIA.

wow. Purdue just pinned some donkey ears on skillet head. Social media can be brutal.

^ per euro i've got 22.5" more to go through the next 10 days. Pumped.

snowing nicely here. Sounds like over performance not in the cards today. Irregardless, nice wintry scene and much to follow upcoming. Beats 35 and days on end of cloudy. Hoping for 2 inches.

that's des moines...they always underperform.

^

50" by 2/15 back in play. Who's bitin?

yeah, talk about kick a man when he's down.

board's asleep but our first fluff maker is in bound: 948 AM CST SNOW HAS EXPANDED FROM NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA THIS MORNING. REPORTS ACROSS NEBRASKA HAVE RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES. TRAJECTORIES FROM THE HEAVIER SNOW AXIS SHOW THE SNOW WOULD LAST LONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, BUT AREAS NORTH TO I-88 WILL GET IN ON THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TOO. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM OMAHA, NE HAS LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 DEG/KM IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER, AND THIS COUPLED WITH A NICE SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL LAYER AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW THIS SNOW SHIELD TO SPREAD INTO OUR AREA WITH EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING IS ABOVE THE PRIME SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER, IT WILL STILL BE RATHER DRY AND FLUFFY, AND WITH 0.1-0.18" OF QPF REPORTED UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED LOCALLY, SNOW NUMBERS OF 1.5-4" ACROSS THE AREA SEEM ON TRACK. ALSO, THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 1/2SM TO 3/4SM VISIBILITIES ACROSS IOWA. WE DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES THIS MORNING AS THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY STICK TO ROADWAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY FALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IN DAYS PAST, BUT 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL DRIFTING OF THIS DRY SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS RURAL AREAS. CAUTION IS URGED TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AGAIN. -per LOT AFD update

I'll take my 1/2 inch and be happy. LOT: AS ANOTHER MORE SHEARED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MID- MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING