Baum

sh*t.

Looks like I was off by a week on this. Saw the pattern and the potential from 60 days out just came up short on timing. Pitfalls of long range forecasting.

still on track. It's all about not being in the "sweet spot" at this juncture. Board points for no one inquiring or posting " that run doesn't matter as it has yet to be sampled" but the chants of "south and weaker" or "strung out POS" have been there from the start. As usual just a snippet from RC's AFD at LOT can save you a lot of time if your in the Northern Illinois area: "THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS HAVE A VERY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INCLUDING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. OVERALL, THE NBM FORECAST FAVORS THE FARTHER NORTH MORE IMPACTFUL CAMPS, SO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM NBM WERE MAINTAINED ON SATURDAY. THERE'S ENOUGH MOVING PARTS TO THE SETUP THAT NOTEWORTHY CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED AS KEY FEATURES MOVE ONTO THE PLAYING FIELD, THOUGH GIVEN HIGH POPS AT THIS LEAD TIME, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE"

pics ?

first call:

solid sheet of white including all pavement areas. Looks like Christmas for a change. And tracking a New Years Eve hooker. Better times.

your on a weather forum with a bunch of snow what do you think you're going to see?

probably dependent on rates. Have never really bought in on some of the better 3-4" totals so if that happens I'll be pleasantly surprised. More important is the worm may have turned.

RIP IMBY season opening snow drought.

^ So you can call him Dr. Modelhugger same as about 80% of the non pro board members here including myself. Twittersphere rules.

LOT actually increased my totals for today up to 2"-4". Not sure how realistic that is but sure looks like the futility record ends today. More noteworthy is how quickly a forecast can change even within a 72 hour window. 3 days ago we were looking at a bland holiday week and now we are looking at 3 snowfall events including a potential major event at least close by and an arctic blast for the new year. Should all of this come to fruition will be interesting to see where ORD stands versus December and winter averages. And yes, I am getting ahead of myself.

Wait....Someone is posting on the 18Z GFS run on an event 5 days away, and we've already established trends 4 days into winter when we've yet to have a legit event? Hello, my old friend I've come to talk with you again........

at first glance that map looks ominous given the color codes than you see it's for a slush accumulation of 1"-3". Guess it doesnt matter how we get on the board just need to get it done.

that Thunder signaled the change.

I see Mchenry Snow voted less than 10". He does know this is for ORD and not his back yard...correct?

and of note regarding the record late measurable snow at LOT and tomorrow's nuisance event: FINALLY, FOR GENERAL WEATHER/CLIMATE DATA INTEREST, CHICAGO’S REMARKABLE MEASURABLE SNOW DROUGHT HAS A INCREASINGLY GOOD CHANCE OF ENDING WITH THIS EVENT. CASTRO

Fairly benign board reactions from the overnight runs outside of the usual "it's a rainer" or "it'll be a suppressed POS" crowd despite the fact we are days away from having any real clue. Nevertheless, despite the LOT futility record and the wailing and gnashing of teeth that this winter will suck it seems we have the potential for major panhandle hooker to track perhaps two weeks later than many would like but right in time for the New Year which has occurred many times before. So winter tracking season has officially begun IMBY really not much later than many years before. LOT concurs: "CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM, AND THIS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE LOCAL IMPACTS THE AREA EXPERIENCES. THIS BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST. "

the entire LOT office will have to do damage control on his hype. Good news is with it being 7 days out his damage is negligible and possible. When he goes "rogue" within 24 hours it's much more problematic.

good to hear from you RC. As always, love the pro input.

A Christmas miracle. Some board optimism.

never happen. In fact rumor has it dude in 1920/21 was slant sticking.

Welcome to the new year. Same as the old year.

nah. no underlying meanings intended. FWIW...in my twitter days beyond forecasting he always came off as a great guy.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2004-12-13-0412130110-story.html sidenote: also the night Bears coach Mike Ditka threw a wad of gum hitting a 49ers fan during a Bears blow out loss.