Baum

pretty much in line now with current forecast....unfortunately. Hoping eek out 4"

Feb 16-17th Winter Storm Potential A-L-E-K replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley Ship has sailed

nice active pattern

you could never jack pot any of these storms because there was never a model consensus. Even than, jack potting a storm more than 24 hours out is a fools game.

winds are howling out there. Be nice to take in some of that 50 degree warmth before reality sets back in. Looks like the transition from rain to snow will be fairly benign here. Call for the back yard is 3" which I'll gladly take. If things pan out as currently projected euro the clear winner here basically being consistent with a 2-4" event for here from 4-5 days out. Tried my best to will it home.

no choice but to

personally think given the scenario it could be quite a bit underdone on precip. I think this situation has quite a bit going for it. As I say no science just a gut feeling from years of getting punched in it by models.

I've decided to pre empt Chicago storm on the 18Z Euro and 00Z NAM. Euro bump NW and wetter. NAM is NW and stronger.

so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event.

LOT watch I-88 south. Snow amounts negligible, but combined with freezing rain and wind gets them to potential warning criteria. Pretty wild forecast. 50's and melt snow pack followed by heavy rain than freezing rain with 3-7" snow on top. Beats the duster days.

thier waiting to crap the bed within 6 hours of the event. why kill the suspense.

wasn't really discussing models more watch criteria. Pretty much know they'll run a consensus between NW and SE models. Real question is do they delay decision for next model cycle .

going to be real interesting how the LOT boys play this.

yep. that's why I think you'll see a watch posted across the heart of the LOT metro. But always frustrating when you can't get a consensus on track and intensity.

LOT currently

is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event?

was hoping for some movement north to build some confidence in the american solutions. Maybe the euro will bite.

you mean reality? While I love to look at 15" kuchera maps IMBY those events don't verify very often. I'll take a 6-12" event and run.

if I go 50 degrees and heavy rain to freezing rain/sleet than 5" of snow and a flash freeze that's a pretty substantial event in a 24 hour period. I guess the saving grace it's not followed by a 5 day arctic air mass.

snow is a highly emotional game.

I like that look.

^ I'll let the pro back me up: THE ECMWF CONTINUED, AS NOTED ABOVE, TO HOLD IN ITS "MIDDLE GROUND" SOLUTION, WHILE THE OTHER COMMONLY CITED OPERATIONAL MODELS HELD FARTHER SOUTH (WITH NORTHWARD SHIFTS SINCE 24-HOURS AGO). RC from todays AFD And this is no way throwing full support in the direction of the American models.

yep on Sunday 1/30 00Z Euro run I was out of the game. Euro worked back to this. As a sidenote, I'll post Canadian Mean. Look familar? Posting old maps as an attempt to show where a compromise on this event is probably in the cards. Note: GFS always had me in a solid event albeit overdone in the end, but still a warning criteria event.

I think his call looks good as well. Always easier to take the lower end of guidance in a snow call. But to me, a 3-6" call through the metro already says while the GFS was to far north and wet with the main snow band it didn't have ORD at zero which was the Euro look a day ago. Your own call supports what the non american models showed, and the GEM still shows. Fun to debate, but a read back through the previuos event shows that while the GFS was a touch to north and wet the Euro had to work back north to get LOT center zones in the game.