cleetussnow

Thats what she said

Thats The One. I got over 30 inches. I learned 2 things: it can snow a lot and you can predict it (somewhat). Read the the paper to track it.

Maybe in the midst of it?

Always prefer a favorable Pacific look myself. Tends to stick around and offer up more chances since the conditions can stick around awhile. No idea how we get out of this NINA state for the upcoming winter unless as you say other marine warmth anomalies alter things.

I keep going back to that volcano water vapor ejection. I think the jury is still out. The hot and dry air masses all around the midriff of the entire northern hemroidisphere, on every landmass on this side of the tropics…seems too unlikely of a coincidence that there isn't a common cause. I know nasa said no but what do they know? If they stuck to space flight maybe they would be flying in space right now.

I can envision of sort of whip motion of the long wave pattern with extreme heights and troughs for a time at the inevitable tide-turn of the season's change. If we can be on the right side of that a couple of times, who knows? I am not envious of someone who has to make a seasonal forecast though. Tell you something - a few people have already said 2023/24 is the one to watch (not that that theory is investible at this point.)

I was tempted to weenie that but yes...maybe...

Or come with a ring.

I was channeling my inner Chuck Yeager in order to not die. I rode something like 90k miles before I hung up the Harley. It wasn't always fun.

And they don't give up the chase. whatever happened to those killer African bees? I thought we all supposed to be dead by now from them.

Had a yellow jacket fly into my helmet once while going 60 on my motorcycle. He’s buzzing around in there enraged and I am trying to be cool about it. Then another one stung me in the neck. Died on impact but still stung me. Took all I had to stay calm and keep driving. Happily the one in my helmet escaped and didnt sting me in the eyeball. That was exciting. I also ate a bee doing yard work once. Nailed me on the tongue. The wife jacked me full of Benadryl and made me stay awake a couple hours in case my throat and tongue swole shut. funny I used to be deathly allergic to bug venoms in my youth after a run in with fire ants in texas. Almost died. After that I was treated with bee venom therapy for a year or so and since then I can tolerate stings pretty well. Back to the motorcycle, bee stings were a regular occurrence on my hands and neck. Utterly sucks because every sting hits like a hammer blow.

Where did we land on the impact of warm SSTs up here for impact on snowfall for coastals? Factor? Non factor? Unknown? This condition stands out this year big time.

I think my local temp departure was +6 for December, so I remember that and not much else. 20 inches plus on the 1/17 event in western NY. Most of us weren't even fringed.

Yes, I don't track every event and especially every/any non-event, but I recall there being a lot of potential in January that just didn't produce anything. We had cold around. There seemed to be something around every corner, and those somethings stayed around the corner the whole month. Bad bad luck.

Decembers were no prize, but not as much of a let down than Jan. which should be a core snow month. Last December …damn.

Shifted 1000 miles again at 0z. Gar. Bage. Gonna be a LOOOONG winter, bros.

Glad its not winter. 3 feet of snow to high cirrus in 6 hrs. The traffic jam at the Tobin would persist until napril.

GFS is a joke at 18z

L O effing L…the GFS is night and day different since 12z. That shit is hilarious. Low shoots off NC coast to the fish. Bone dry up here.

What Rjay said

Euro trended slightly to the GFS. It does not have the loop de loop over new england, but the trough sharpens up in time so the LP does go over cape cod. Still too far south and off shore to do anything but fringe the NY metro for anything more than an inch. Rain looks somewhat likely wednesday afternoon and evening. NE sees some decent rain easr of CT valley and up through NH then o

400 to 500 miles spread, other models vs the gfs. GEFS is still wet but not like the GFS operational. No other ensemble is nearly as wet unless you cherry pick members.

18z gfs drier than 12z, esp. for LI. Also drier for interior NE and upstate NY.

Euro is similar

The euro misses a lot of NE now with the LP further south, but ME gets some rain.