cleetussnow

I think it got ~10 below at my house (HPN) in early January of that winter as well.

Can’t be too much worse.

Day 10 to 15 on the GEFS is garbage coast to coast. Teles support zonal flow.

Euro operational has a deep trough in the east with the 540 isotherm touching Kentucky at this time (216). Not as sharp as the gfs . I only have tropical tidbits so can’t see much else. Looks like a good period to watch anyway.

That’s a great look. Let’s get it inside 6 days...

That’s tongue in cheek

Cutter then cold then coastal hugger is the next 2 weeks play out. Teles don’t scream snow around here

Miller B?

Anyone staying up for the euro? Trying to decide if I want to take a lunesta now or wait up...

Do you have a boat for your upcoming chase?

No kidding. My camp in the Daks looks like an awesome spot with that set up. Kleenex material. ...and that may be all it is.

Euro has been jumping 200 miles the last 3 cycles back and forth, and the axis of the trough tilt has been changing too. The GFS has been going in one direction and resolute about it - the wrong way. Euro solutions have to be respected this close. confounding.

Plus 1 on DT props...hopefully we can get a radio show or zoom going for a good old fashioned nor Easter later this winter....good ol’ days.

horseheads is a snow hole. That area misses everything to the left (lake effect) or right (coastal huggers). In the old days you could drive to Ithaca from there 30 minutes and get your snow fix but not so much these days. Last year they hit ~40 inches while everyone else was way under seasonal norms. Figures that was a year you want to be there.

the old Euro seemingly wouldn't swing like this. One of the last 4 euro runs might actually nail it, but we have no idea which one. Not really time to give up on this for at least eastern NY areas...pattern looks good mid month still

The weekend storm is mentioned in the ALB HWO in some parts of the forecast area at least. Noticed it in Herkimer county.

I love the Euro look for my camp in the western Daks, but I think its a dart throw solution. We need some run to run continuity to buy what the Euro has been selling since its handing out different solutions on every run of the last 4 cycles. We are getting closer to the 'event' depicted so there's that going for us. I guess we don't go to sleep on this one after all, which is where my head was at.

Early storm in December made my sons birthday a mess. It think it was the 5th and we got 7 inches here . Have the kids didn’t go. But the ones who did had the place to themselves.

Save that one storm, I think it was a bad winter. We got our annual climo snow fall in that ONE storm. It was amazing.

Still reading but this is a great write up.

I don’t think the top individual marginal income rates matter as much to the economy or the average joe as corporate taxes. So for me, whichever way the wind blows on that doesn’t change anything. Whatever. I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. And if you did that, most of the money isn’t cash, it’s investments and shares etc. which would become worthless very fast: there would be no market anymore since there would be no buyers. A discussion for another day... Corporate tax rates affect the cost of goods, my job, pension benefits and retirement savings. If corporate rates go up, everything I listed there goes the wrong way for me. I’m really just talking about how things are likely to evolve based on the past history. Biden has 2 years to get the green new deal and I don’t see anything stopping it and it will be the biggest regulation in US history. My guess is the markets and economy in general will be very disrupted by all of this. Once done, the senate flips back red, and maybe the house. That happened to Obama. One other thing the market will hate is if the senate is red and the White House blue. Then there will be budget fights and the threat of government shutdowns will kill the markets. Flip side is there will be no additional regulations or taxes to speak of while the blue White House and red senate condition exists. I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t seem likely for the next 2 years anyway.

The stock market today seems to pricing in Biden winning easily. What they like is the fact that election isn’t likely to be contested like bush/gore or something. The market likes stability, predictability and orderliness. In 2021 the market will start pricing in the new tax and new regulations which are promised. If the senate flips in November, there will be a cascade of new regulations, higher taxes, and new taxes for that matter. The market will get repriced during this time. I could see the senate flipping back red in 2022 if the new taxes and regulation coincide with a recession perhaps, and the cascade will be stunted. This happened to Obama in 2010 when he lost the house and senate before he could get his climate bill passed. He got Obamacare but the large regulatory expansion stopped there. Clinton lost the house 2 years into his presidency because of hilarycare.. Biden will quickly raise tax rates, and then go straight to the climate regulations that Obama could not pass and get it done. There is a pattern here. They get the big regulations eventually. The the other party gets a chance to rein in further regulatory expansion, but only temporarily.

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point. For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks. I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months. Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

Prepare for snow or a gut punch?

Thats it. My parents have photos with date stamps that I’ll check. I remember seeing the pictures and saying wait...that’s got to be ‘93 not ‘94.