cleetussnow

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point. For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks. I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months. Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

I’m still digging out from the euro seasonal forecast for last winter.

Prepare for snow or a gut punch?

https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/dt-on-twitter-follow-along-this-winter-httptwittercomdtwxriskcom/169919243096511/ Sez put October 1 down as a date to watch for snow in western NY.

Thats it. My parents have photos with date stamps that I’ll check. I remember seeing the pictures and saying wait...that’s got to be ‘93 not ‘94.

March ‘93 was what kicked of the snowy epoch (as I call it) for me, however I was located in upstate NY at the time. For many ‘96 kicked off the snowy epoch, and I was relocated to NYC by then. By the way, there was a relatively big storm I think in Feb 1994...interior. I don’t hear much about it probably for that reason, but it was not far off from some of the famous ones. 2 feet and wind like hell in some locales IIRC. Doesn’t get a lot of press probably because it rained at the coast. Edit. I don’t think it was feb 8-10.

A good journal doesn’t mean the paper is robust. Hopefully the peer reviewers were careful looking at the data for the high beer consumption article. Even in good journals you see backtest overfit and you get a false positive. I would be suspicious of that.

New Hampshire gets an asterisk...no income tax!

I feel you. I am a country boy living in the big apple zone, but I keep one foot up north all winter. Unfortunately for you a record winter up north is incoming while we get hit with 33 and rain down here. It’s just how it is. It’s the only circumstance where weather prognostication is 100% accurate. Buying a new snowmobile or snowblower are good predictors of a bad winter.

Welp...decided to go get the antibody test for the family Sunday. Took 1 hr to get an appointment at a local urgent care which surprised me. I thought tests were in short supply. Nope. Place was empty. No questions asked either. No copay. Results come back ...my 14 YO came up with the anti body. My wife and I did not. Weird. So we went back and got the swab test to see if we an active infection. No red alert symptoms or anything, maybe tired and allergy type stuff if anything. Will report back. My son lost taste for a few weeks but no other symptoms. If you get the nose swab..it sucks. I do know 2 other families where 1 person positive with the infection, and NO one else tested positive for the infection or anti bodies. Jives with what’s happening in my house, but doesn’t jive with what I hear from news and what I should expect. Weird.

DC lost their autonomy I think during Marion Berry’s reign. Congress took away their ability to govern themselves, iirc.

I read California has a rainy day fund. Or had one anyway... which would be amazing if true.

I figured CT and Illinois are actually close to defaulting.

I am sitting on the fence about how I feel about the lockdown. It’s extreme but I don’t k now what else to do. This patient hasn’t generated expected income for many years. Somehow it got worse in the last 4.

Cuomo can’t figure out how to fund the state in normal times, and doesn’t know why we keep missing revenue targets. He said it plainly. He is doing great on the virus response. His budget skills are atrocious. One of the worst in the US. Maybe CT and IL are worse?

So true. Watch the season and playoffs get shortened, but the bills win the Super Bowl...with an asterisk...

China is the number one consumer of all that science you speak of. They steal it. We haven’t done anything in 20 years to stop it either. Until huewai.

Not going to go too far into this...yes farmers took a hit. No bueno. The point of the tariffs was in part to send the message to China we can stop feeding them anytime. Australia was recently threatened economically by China, and they may come to the same conclusion that the US did, and stop feeding China as well. Neither country wants to be bullied by China China cannot feed itself. Of all the threats to China, this is near the top. They need food imports. If China is perceived and understood to be materially reckless with the virus by the western world, and they decide to sanction and choke China, they can. The implications are huge.

I can get one at my local walk in clinic with a questionnaire. I check a lot of boxes due to my travel. I may go and see.

absolutely possible. The Italians got it from Chinese expats coming to Italy to their second homes in Lombardi. there's thousands of them.

Yeah we are all going to get it until the point where the virus runs out of vectors, or we get a vaccine. Herd immunity might obviate that I suppose. Whichever comes first. Same difference though, but a faster vaccine esp. for those at risk is the better outcome. and unless you are high risk, you won’t get vaccinated in the first instance. Healthy low risk will get the illness before they get a vaccine if i had to bet. PS I am pretty sure I had this already. I was in China a day before lockdown and live near and work in NYC. No symptoms but my kid did, lost taste.

Good reasons to think about this. The cdc instructed that anyone who tests positive with corona virus and then dies, the cause of death is corona virus. Which is odd. An asymptomatic person can “die of covid” even though they had a heart attack? I read an article which I cannot now find where a number of doctors wondered where the heart attack and stroke victims they normally see in ERs went. They said they thought these victims must have stayed home and died there instead because they didn’t want the virus to infect them at the hospital. I need to find the article because maybe the doctors were looking at statistics and noticed causes of death from the normal, more common factors were down. The numbers are messy I’m sorry. It’s a lethal illness no doubt, but there seem to be questions abound.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-the-return-of-inflation-11587659836 There will be inevitable side effects of these government monetary and stimulus programs, as with most any drug intervention.

The government's hand is slapping away the invisible hand which would depress valuations normally,

thanks man, and spot on here as well!