cleetussnow

Judah Cohen cancels winter - before May? Like where even am I?

Just depends on where it is in the system. Sure it can.

Man thats terrible. If this is common - it is here somewhat - go get a predator 5000 watt inverter generator at harbor freight if you can swing it. Or even the smaller 3500 watt one. It will bail you out of a critical situation.

The posters aren’t melting in this case, they are sublimating. There is an important difference.

I know the weather is boring because there is a 2 page brush fire up in here because of a post I can’t even see.

I’ve had SOMETHING on the ground here in my yard since early December. I’m saying like some bunkers next to the greens in the shaded areas of my yard so to speak. I live in a geographic hole micro climate with little sun, so things tend to hang on in certain spots. Also my pond - I’ve been able to walk on it for like 6 weeks+. Its been a crazy winter with snow cover and no material end in sight save for actual spring. I’m also at or near climo snow. If we get a a couple moderate bigger snows, thats enough to make this a top 10 winter I’d think.

We do that all the time. For some, most of the time.

Multiple lows effing this up.

You are a gem. Boys when we kicking off the nominations?

Dead. Not waiting for 0z. This has nothing going for it. It’ll keep tugging on the weenies for a few more runs but not mine.

Not time to throw in the towel just yet - but we should keep em handy

Let's unpack that - low probability there is a biggie present in any form, yes; BUT there is one in the theatre. Rarest of all is for one to form in the first place, but we checked that box. But will the biggie be for the fish to shovel or upright hominids? That question is in the realm of 'normal' probability to ponder.

Tough sell. I'm below normal since November and at my seasonal average snowfall with 15" pack I can nearly walk on in late Jan, peak winter. Missing a super anomaly blizzard doesn't quite make the case. I'm all in on CC, but she's sitting this winter out in our region.

NY metro is the weakest forum of the 3 major ones. Like 5 or 6 regular mets.

I’ll give it to 0z. Tonight.

Ova

When was snowmageddon down there, 2010?

Yeah its pretty tightly wound- not sure the precip shield would be that tight though.

Improvement.

Maybe its wrong.

For us amateurs, I think posting what the 'perfect' scenario is against the current setup really helps illustrate what it takes from here. I'm looking for Jan 4 2018 as a possible analog

Out west looks similar - but the trough is positive tilt this time out - I posted approx the same time frames on the current 06z GFS 500 and the verified '96 500 vort.