cleetussnow

Nah. Now we very little support for a hit for this subforum. Its been 2 days since the GFS showed a hit and the Euro has trended away to gone. Lesser models following suit. I don’t think any majors showed a hit today, even for the last 36 hours…except maybe the ukie. So why WOULD you think this has a realistic chance? The answer can’t be just cuz it happened before. Basically no support right now. It’s also a very rare storm setup so, no surprise, we won’t experience one. Almost nothing going for it except if success is being within 500 miles of it. If we were looking at it from the point of view of someone who didn’t want the storm - we have nothing to fear.

In fact I recall the NWS offices were calling that GFS run a fluke due to convective feedback. Wonder if others remember that.

Janice Huff was calling for 2 inches on the 23rd 11 PM broadcast. So bad. Nick at Fox and that other dude Lee Goldberg were looking at the GFS before going live and were starting to honk. Now recall that 8 days out, boxing day was well advertised and then the models universally lost it. A lot of people forget that. It was foretold. Super rare and extreme case, but that is what went down.

Yeah the GEFs miss was better than the GFS miss. Giving until 0z tomorrow to see if it comes back around. But not holding my breath!

We’re down to the Ukie.

There is a lot of time to resolve this for better or worse

Just needed a trend on the GFS and GEFS. Didn’t need a wholesale correction. Plenty of time for that. Give it till tomorrw OZ

I think worlds apart is an exaggeration. But I’d agree someone is going to cave soon.

Cut? Lol

Well the gfs won’t but it hasn’t been as good as last night all day. Gfs isn’t going to do it this run.

It’s not really chaotic - more like exotic. Triple phasers are unusual but there is precedent for them to be well advertised. Problem is with Miller A’s - subtle changes can mean a lot. See march 2001 for example.

Certainly the biggest risk is going to the western ridge not cooperating, and we get another whiff. 50/50 right now.

Kinda. They were removing snow from thr roof because of the weight

Lol and it rains then dryslots NYC. Pass.

Hold weenies until sunday. Earliest.

Tug hill.

Nah GFS is on the right track for next week. Maybe the following wave but lala land. I can hear the clock on winter ticking loudly.

Where I'm at, I have ~19 inches so far, about half of normal. Not terribly exciting except I've had pack/cover for most of the winter. That is the most positive aspect of the this season and should not be discounted. For this weekend - I'm thinking I get 3 to 4 inches of snow until the changeover, and unless I get dry slotted for a bunch of the rain, this pack is toast on Sunday. I figure I'd have 5 to 6 inches OTG before the rain. If any snow remains, it will be a glacier by Monday, but it's not likely to sustain the rain and warmth. As far as next week - I think its a scraper. It'll put something down, so maybe I will be at 25 inches for the season by the end of it with this weekend's snow. Hard to see how I get to 40 this season if next week just scrapes. Again, if we get a couple inches out of that, it will be OTG for a week or so. Snow OTG for most of the winter, that's what I'm experiencing. Not bad.

Meh.

This is a case where there isn't enough ridging out west/wave space issues too, as Fork mention. Is that a GFS bias? Not that I know of.

20th wide right on the GFS. That will lock in.

Gfs is going be congrats DC again for the 20th.

Exactly. They have more snow than us this week because the gradient verified SOUTH of us. Also Florida has had record snows, noting the gradient also verified SOUTH of us. The south is having a great winter because the gradient has been SOUTH.

JMA obviously stepping in for the Euro. PS I thought the American models were going to be broken forever from now on? I guess paradise hasn't broken out in Europe either.