cleetussnow

Prepare for snow or a gut punch?

https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/dt-on-twitter-follow-along-this-winter-httptwittercomdtwxriskcom/169919243096511/ Sez put October 1 down as a date to watch for snow in western NY.

Thats it. My parents have photos with date stamps that I’ll check. I remember seeing the pictures and saying wait...that’s got to be ‘93 not ‘94.

March ‘93 was what kicked of the snowy epoch (as I call it) for me, however I was located in upstate NY at the time. For many ‘96 kicked off the snowy epoch, and I was relocated to NYC by then. By the way, there was a relatively big storm I think in Feb 1994...interior. I don’t hear much about it probably for that reason, but it was not far off from some of the famous ones. 2 feet and wind like hell in some locales IIRC. Doesn’t get a lot of press probably because it rained at the coast. Edit. I don’t think it was feb 8-10.

Heaviest rain now for sure. Wind is rather modest. Can hear thunder but no flashes this round.

Cell just blew through with hvy rain and thunder. Only saw one lightening flash. That lasted 10 mins. Moderate rain now. More incoming...

I’m in Ithaca for this one, west side of Cayuga in my camper...which is interesting. We just missed some action to the east, around 2 pm, now it’s very breezy with partly sunny skies, 85. DK humidity but it’s sticky. Watching the line of storms to our northwest and we are in a tornado watch. 3k Nam seems to have the stronger cells to our west later, while the hrrr brings some strong cells overhead. NWS says western Great Lakes for the most severe, so that’s in line with 3k nam.

I am interested to see what the warm means for a lake response in late fall. It will get cold at some point.

Pictures above are my house and neighbor’s. The tree kind of kicked a field goal between the houses. Not sure yet if my neighbors have damage but the streets are littered with bits of trees. Suns out and we have power.

Tree fell 15 minutes ago and knocked down my next door neighbors chimney, a retaining wall and a stand of evergreens. We are sheltered in the center of the house. Snapping and cracking sounds but lights still on.

Getting real up here north of HPN. Branches down and lights flickered a few times. Internet went down but all working now. If I had to guess I’d say gusts to 40. My house is shadowed from the south by a steep hill so can’t tell anything real from the ground in terms of wind speed. Intermittent rain. No word of trees down yet locally.

A good journal doesn’t mean the paper is robust. Hopefully the peer reviewers were careful looking at the data for the high beer consumption article. Even in good journals you see backtest overfit and you get a false positive. I would be suspicious of that.

New Hampshire gets an asterisk...no income tax!

I feel you. I am a country boy living in the big apple zone, but I keep one foot up north all winter. Unfortunately for you a record winter up north is incoming while we get hit with 33 and rain down here. It’s just how it is. It’s the only circumstance where weather prognostication is 100% accurate. Buying a new snowmobile or snowblower are good predictors of a bad winter.

Welp...decided to go get the antibody test for the family Sunday. Took 1 hr to get an appointment at a local urgent care which surprised me. I thought tests were in short supply. Nope. Place was empty. No questions asked either. No copay. Results come back ...my 14 YO came up with the anti body. My wife and I did not. Weird. So we went back and got the swab test to see if we an active infection. No red alert symptoms or anything, maybe tired and allergy type stuff if anything. Will report back. My son lost taste for a few weeks but no other symptoms. If you get the nose swab..it sucks. I do know 2 other families where 1 person positive with the infection, and NO one else tested positive for the infection or anti bodies. Jives with what’s happening in my house, but doesn’t jive with what I hear from news and what I should expect. Weird.

Right except for the part where it cuts.

Through all of this cold, my lawn looks great. Noted some leaves in a nearby woods have slightly curled up because of the cold and snow last week, but no other signs on the greenery, at least here in mid Westchester.

I was thinking about big temp swings. I know we have had some in the few years, but mainly in winter., but like 60 degree swings in a couple of days.

DC lost their autonomy I think during Marion Berry’s reign. Congress took away their ability to govern themselves, iirc.

I read California has a rainy day fund. Or had one anyway... which would be amazing if true.

I figured CT and Illinois are actually close to defaulting.

I am sitting on the fence about how I feel about the lockdown. It’s extreme but I don’t k now what else to do. This patient hasn’t generated expected income for many years. Somehow it got worse in the last 4.

Cuomo can’t figure out how to fund the state in normal times, and doesn’t know why we keep missing revenue targets. He said it plainly. He is doing great on the virus response. His budget skills are atrocious. One of the worst in the US. Maybe CT and IL are worse?

Remember we had a white thanksgiving in many areas. Iirc a couple recent November’s have been cold.