cleetussnow

Cuomo can’t figure out how to fund the state in normal times, and doesn’t know why we keep missing revenue targets. He said it plainly. He is doing great on the virus response. His budget skills are atrocious. One of the worst in the US. Maybe CT and IL are worse?

Remember we had a white thanksgiving in many areas. Iirc a couple recent November’s have been cold.

Winter of ‘78 was a good one...just saying...

Dudes. This is nuts

Confirm SN+ here in Westchester.

So true. Watch the season and playoffs get shortened, but the bills win the Super Bowl...with an asterisk...

China is the number one consumer of all that science you speak of. They steal it. We haven’t done anything in 20 years to stop it either. Until huewai.

Not going to go too far into this...yes farmers took a hit. No bueno. The point of the tariffs was in part to send the message to China we can stop feeding them anytime. Australia was recently threatened economically by China, and they may come to the same conclusion that the US did, and stop feeding China as well. Neither country wants to be bullied by China China cannot feed itself. Of all the threats to China, this is near the top. They need food imports. If China is perceived and understood to be materially reckless with the virus by the western world, and they decide to sanction and choke China, they can. The implications are huge.

I can get one at my local walk in clinic with a questionnaire. I check a lot of boxes due to my travel. I may go and see.

. we saw this a couple of years ago. February had warmer highs than much of May (up to mid month anyway - cant recall dates) at my station. i think it was 2017 we hit like 78 or something in the February blow torch and then spring was awful.

absolutely possible. The Italians got it from Chinese expats coming to Italy to their second homes in Lombardi. there's thousands of them.

Yeah we are all going to get it until the point where the virus runs out of vectors, or we get a vaccine. Herd immunity might obviate that I suppose. Whichever comes first. Same difference though, but a faster vaccine esp. for those at risk is the better outcome. and unless you are high risk, you won’t get vaccinated in the first instance. Healthy low risk will get the illness before they get a vaccine if i had to bet. PS I am pretty sure I had this already. I was in China a day before lockdown and live near and work in NYC. No symptoms but my kid did, lost taste.

Good reasons to think about this. The cdc instructed that anyone who tests positive with corona virus and then dies, the cause of death is corona virus. Which is odd. An asymptomatic person can “die of covid” even though they had a heart attack? I read an article which I cannot now find where a number of doctors wondered where the heart attack and stroke victims they normally see in ERs went. They said they thought these victims must have stayed home and died there instead because they didn’t want the virus to infect them at the hospital. I need to find the article because maybe the doctors were looking at statistics and noticed causes of death from the normal, more common factors were down. The numbers are messy I’m sorry. It’s a lethal illness no doubt, but there seem to be questions abound.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-the-return-of-inflation-11587659836 There will be inevitable side effects of these government monetary and stimulus programs, as with most any drug intervention.

The government's hand is slapping away the invisible hand which would depress valuations normally,

thanks man, and spot on here as well!

tons - I could try to breakdown what a securitization is, what tranches are, and what credit ratings roles are...and the concept of what a rating enhancement is. ratings play a big part in the landscape. then I can talk about the crazy derivatives that Rochester Dave was talking about then we can talk about TALF, and go back to TARP. Of course I have to do the day job but I think the above stuff is important

Way over simplistic. Fraud was the principal cause of the crisis. My whole statement never mentions borrowers. it does say the government relaxed rules to allow lending to sup prime borrowers, which ran against the government agencies charter (like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, etc.). Fraud ensued as all lenders, independent brokers, servicer, etc. all followed suit. The whole market right up to the top looked the other way. Borrowers were enabled to get in over their heads. I don't blame them 100%, but I would say 60% since many were not truthful on their applications. The worst part came when that information was deemed "verified" (it wasn't) when the loans were put into securities. Investors had no idea that they were buying junk. Rating agencies affirmed that the underlying loans were investment grade when they were not. The latter compounded an already ugly situation. Bush very pointedly said the market was broken. Its on the record and you can check. The derivatives contracts were in response to the fraudulent lending. Banks and a handful of investors discovered anomalies in the securities, and took out hedges. The most famous one was when Goldman took out a contract with AIG to cover the derivative contract they made with a hedge fund. The hedge fund and Goldman didn't do anything wrong in their transaction. Where Goldman got in trouble is when they took out a insurance policy with AIG to cover this trade in the event it went south on them. Goldman wanted to be risk neutral so they covered their butts. They only wanted to receive fees. The FLAW in this trade is they did not ask themselves if AIG would be able to actually cover the contract they made with Goldman. That is called counter party risk. Goldman wanted to receive the fees for the contract with the hedge fund, but they did not want to pay the $1 Billion. Covering a risk with a contract with a counter party is common, just contracts this huge are not. The hedge fund took advantage of information asymmetry to set up the trade, which is why markets exist. I won't argue that wall street didn't play a role because they were BAD actors. They can't run their own books for example (See Volcker Rule). WHOLE other story. But the entire mortgage system was rife with fraud, mismanagement, lax rules and LAWS, from stem to stern. And so it exploded literally. Many people spoke up about the potential risks, going back to 1998 even! My own view is there are 2 factors: Home ownership for everyone was viewed to be a noble cause (and it is) Principal mortgage market participants looked the other way on fraud and anomalies in order to make money, taking advantage of the above sentiment. it was a perfect storm! Greed synced with public good in an effed up distorted way to create a global crisis.

Lawn needs the rain. Brain does not!

You may not be interested in a war with China, but the war will be interested in YOU.

Cuomo and his alliance of governors has trump by the short and curlys. The national economy won’t open until Cuomos group says so. They control a lot of the economy and also have the most illness of course.

Wtf

If it made sense you could predict the future.